Realized P&L
-$5.25K
Unrealized P&L
+$284
Hit rate
51.7%
Resolved
65
Trades
11,974
lifetime
Volume
$651.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$54
Open exposure
$1.24K
4 positions
First seen
2026-05-12
last 06-15 19:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 28 days
Categories
Politics
48%
62%
-$4,586
Crypto
19%
60%
+$712
Other
19%
53%
-$514
Sports
14%
26%
-$865
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-15).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | No | +817 | $530 | 97¢ | $792 | +$262 | 06-14 23:47 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | -246 | -$241 | 82¢ | $-203 | +$38 | 06-14 21:18 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | -164 | -$144 | 94¢ | $-155 | -$11 | 06-11 17:42 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | -97 | -$90 | 98¢ | $-94 | -$4 | 06-03 21:55 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 859 | $58.9K | 47,070 | 47,300 | -230 | No | +$179 | 06-03 23:18 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 958 | $49.9K | 25,386 | 25,869 | -483 | No | -$2 | 06-14 20:36 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 509 | $38.5K | 24,441 | 24,687 | -246 | open | — | 06-14 21:18 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 982 | $32.9K | 50,159 | 50,614 | -454 | Yes | -$85 | 06-14 20:30 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 496 | $30.8K | 19,408 | 19,408 | +0 | Yes | +$118 | 06-14 22:41 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 551 | $26.9K | 131,475 | 135,496 | -4,021 | Yes | -$3,123 | 06-15 19:40 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | 605 | $25.2K | 22,159 | 20,104 | +2,056 | Yes | +$650 | 06-01 10:08 |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | 829 | $24.7K | 26,403 | 26,170 | +233 | Yes | -$29 | 06-14 14:56 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 218 | $24.5K | 12,789 | 12,789 | +0 | No | +$60 | 06-14 23:12 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | 349 | $22.6K | 11,581 | 11,681 | -100 | No | +$0 | 05-31 13:40 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 499 | $21.3K | 37,689 | 37,689 | +0 | No | -$286 | 06-13 05:56 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 445 | $20.2K | 64,496 | 54,966 | +9,530 | No | -$2,166 | 05-30 04:56 |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 198 | $17.7K | 9,672 | 9,672 | +0 | No | +$13 | 06-14 23:47 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | 194 | $15.9K | 12,258 | 10,539 | +1,718 | No | +$565 | 05-21 19:59 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | 261 | $15.5K | 8,988 | 9,312 | -324 | Yes | -$116 | 06-01 11:56 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 249 | $13.0K | 38,291 | 12,574 | +25,717 | No | -$493 | 05-31 02:47 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 158 | $12.3K | 16,080 | 15,973 | +107 | Yes | +$243 | 06-14 22:44 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 236 | $11.9K | 8,648 | 8,648 | +0 | open | — | 06-12 21:46 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 145 | $10.8K | 6,213 | 6,377 | -164 | open | — | 06-11 17:42 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026 | 500 | $10.5K | 128,181 | 141,216 | -13,035 | No | +$351 | 06-08 02:23 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 91 | $10.1K | 5,287 | 4,927 | +360 | No | +$5 | 05-24 11:30 |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | 252 | $9.4K | 11,084 | 10,267 | +817 | open | — | 06-14 23:47 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 103 | $9.3K | 4,600 | 5,038 | -438 | No | -$11 | 05-30 12:25 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | 195 | $9.3K | 4,793 | 4,783 | +9 | No | -$2 | 06-08 18:40 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | 129 | $8.9K | 5,166 | 5,166 | +0 | Yes | +$92 | 05-26 20:22 |
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | 59 | $7.7K | 4,168 | 3,607 | +561 | No | +$6 | 05-21 17:42 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | 103 | $7.2K | 4,488 | 3,520 | +967 | No | +$66 | 06-01 09:55 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | 63 | $6.7K | 3,473 | 3,294 | +179 | No | -$8 | 05-27 03:19 |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | 52 | $6.4K | 3,372 | 3,082 | +290 | No | +$1 | 05-21 17:07 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 55 | $6.0K | 3,482 | 3,482 | +0 | open | — | 06-13 22:32 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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