Realized P&L (90d)
+$5.30K
Unrealized P&L
+$632
Hit rate
76.1%
Resolved (90d)
535
Trades (90d)
5,780
5,780 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$696.6K
$696.6K lifetime
Avg / trade
$121
Open exposure
$50.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-08
last 10-29 17:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 78 days
Categories
Other
52% 65% -$871
Politics
43% 68% +$6,482
Crypto
4% 73% +$441
Tech
1% 75% +$475
Sports
0% 43% -$1,225
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk • peak 363 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +12,181 $9,974 96¢ $11.7K +$1,775 09-21 13:06
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +6,742 $6,000 96¢ $6.4K +$438 08-10 11:56
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +5,435 $4,990 83¢ $4.5K -$479 09-19 00:42
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +4,800 $3,504 86¢ $4.1K +$612 10-06 17:58
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +2,471 $2,080 92¢ $2.3K +$181 10-10 15:19
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +2,320 $2,092 96¢ $2.2K +$132 10-27 00:16
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No +1,818 $1,636 93¢ $1.7K +$55 09-22 18:12
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,650 $1,369 96¢ $1.6K +$215 09-13 12:39
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes +1,710 $1,494 89¢ $1.5K +$23 09-20 18:59
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +1,650 $1,051 85¢ $1.4K +$347 10-03 06:25
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +1,375 $1,189 96¢ $1.3K +$125 10-03 19:01
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +1,796 $1,456 72¢ $1.3K -$154 10-05 15:10
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +49,696 $4,954 2¢ $1.1K -$3,836 09-17 15:25
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +1,418 $936 76¢ $1.1K +$149 10-04 17:40
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +1,147 $456 92¢ $1.0K +$593 09-23 08:37
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No +837 $636 96¢ $799 +$164 09-20 20:01
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +1,311 $1,103 60¢ $787 -$317 09-13 20:47
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat? Yes +632 $449 80¢ $509 +$60 09-22 07:12
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +664 $569 72¢ $481 -$88 10-13 18:08
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +491 $427 96¢ $472 +$45 09-08 17:29
Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV? Yes +465 $395 98¢ $453 +$58 10-02 13:14
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +536 $97 82¢ $437 +$339 10-29 17:31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +1,213 $282 35¢ $425 +$143 10-19 23:42
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +879 $208 48¢ $418 +$209 09-21 20:36
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +486 $318 84¢ $406 +$88 10-11 22:29
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No +1,331 $525 28¢ $366 -$159 09-25 09:25
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +750 $495 48¢ $356 -$139 08-17 06:30
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No +388 $321 89¢ $345 +$24 10-07 00:14
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +447 $359 76¢ $337 -$22 10-08 21:15
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +1,950 $282 17¢ $331 +$49 09-25 20:01