Realized P&L (30d)
-$5.27K
Unrealized P&L
-$2.09K
Hit rate
82.6%
Resolved (30d)
109
Trades (30d)
644
6,195 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$77.8K
$742.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$120
Open exposure
$50.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-08
last 10-29 17:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 77 days
Categories
Other
52% 66% -$878
Politics
43% 67% +$6,366
Crypto
4% 73% +$441
Tech
1% 75% +$475
Sports
0% 43% -$1,225
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
76 active days in 12wk • peak 363 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +12,181 $9,974 96¢ $11.7K +$1,775 09-21 13:06
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +6,742 $6,000 96¢ $6.5K +$506 08-10 11:56
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +5,435 $4,990 84¢ $4.6K -$397 09-19 00:42
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +4,800 $3,504 86¢ $4.1K +$614 10-06 17:58
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +2,471 $2,080 93¢ $2.3K +$221 10-10 15:19
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +2,320 $2,092 95¢ $2.2K +$120 10-27 00:16
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No +1,818 $1,636 92¢ $1.7K +$27 09-22 18:12
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,650 $1,369 96¢ $1.6K +$218 09-13 12:39
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +49,696 $4,954 3¢ $1.6K -$3,389 09-17 15:25
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes +1,710 $1,494 90¢ $1.5K +$40 09-20 18:59
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +1,650 $1,051 84¢ $1.4K +$337 10-03 06:25
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +1,796 $1,456 72¢ $1.3K -$154 10-05 15:10
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +1,375 $1,189 92¢ $1.3K +$83 10-03 19:01
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +1,147 $456 90¢ $1.0K +$582 09-23 08:37
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +1,418 $936 72¢ $1.0K +$92 10-04 17:40
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +1,311 $1,103 66¢ $872 -$232 09-13 20:47
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No +837 $636 96¢ $799 +$164 09-20 20:01
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat? Yes +632 $449 78¢ $496 +$47 09-22 07:12
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +491 $427 96¢ $473 +$46 09-08 17:29
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +664 $569 70¢ $461 -$108 10-13 18:08
Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV? Yes +465 $395 96¢ $444 +$49 10-02 13:14
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +536 $97 80¢ $431 +$334 10-29 17:31
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +879 $208 48¢ $418 +$209 09-21 20:36
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +486 $318 82¢ $399 +$81 10-11 22:29
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No +1,331 $525 28¢ $366 -$159 09-25 09:25
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No +388 $321 94¢ $365 +$44 10-07 00:14
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +1,213 $282 30¢ $364 +$82 10-19 23:42
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +750 $495 48¢ $356 -$139 08-17 06:30
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +678 $469 49¢ $332 -$137 08-16 20:38
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +8,979 $3,379 4¢ $328 -$3,051 08-19 21:52