Rigid-Torso — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.5%

Resolved

Trades

152

lifetime

Volume

$19.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$131

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-02 20:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

56% 0% $-19

Other

44% 100% +$15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$1.7K	1,260	1,260	+0	open	—	07-15 06:27
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	7	$1.6K	1,136	1,136	+0	open	—	07-30 17:39
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	18	$770	899	899	+0	open	—	01-29 20:00
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	2	$628	379	379	+0	open	—	08-02 20:33
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	2	$620	382	382	+0	open	—	07-26 03:47
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	2	$598	379	379	+0	open	—	07-30 08:34
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$556	309	309	+0	open	—	07-07 23:30
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	3	$551	315	315	+0	open	—	07-25 06:15
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	2	$545	380	380	+0	open	—	08-02 20:35
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	3	$543	326	326	+0	open	—	07-18 16:32
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	2	$539	321	321	+0	open	—	07-10 00:05
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	4	$536	627	435	+192	open	—	07-30 22:50
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	3	$493	370	370	+0	open	—	06-30 09:33
will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	2	$489	348	348	+0	open	—	07-04 04:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$481	316	316	+0	open	—	07-17 20:26
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	2	$471	294	294	+0	open	—	07-25 21:45
kristi noem out by march 31	2	$433	333	333	+0	open	—	03-05 19:42
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	2	$428	323	323	+0	open	—	03-14 07:25
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	2	$428	379	379	+0	open	—	07-26 00:40
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 16	2	$406	312	312	+0	open	—	03-10 06:55
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	2	$391	286	286	+0	open	—	07-27 21:15
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	3	$387	364	364	+0	open	—	08-02 05:51
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$341	410	410	+0	open	—	02-28 06:50
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	4	$323	1,033	1,033	+0	open	—	02-03 19:12
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?	1	$307	0	421	-421	open	—	07-14 22:50
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$300	637	0	+637	open	—	01-13 19:52
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	2	$287	167	167	+0	open	—	07-03 23:38
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$250	334	0	+334	open	—	07-13 22:34
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	1	$250	357	0	+357	open	—	07-20 06:24
enhanced aca premium tax credits extended by january 31	4	$224	128	128	+0	open	—	01-25 05:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 20:35:36	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	380	78¢	$295	0x2401f2…
08-02 20:33:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	379	100¢	$378	0x49ffed…
08-02 05:51:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	364	51¢	$187	0x7420b8…
08-02 02:12:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	122	55¢	$67	0xd26900…
08-02 02:12:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	241	55¢	$133	0x43633d…
08-01 20:52:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x9d2ff0…
07-30 22:50:44	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x9ece85…
07-30 17:39:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	467	82¢	$383	0xaf1164…
07-30 08:36:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	392	51¢	$200	0xc43880…
07-30 08:34:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	379	92¢	$348	0xe63ee2…
07-29 20:13:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	247	81¢	$200	0xde30cc…
07-28 22:12:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	220	63¢	$138	0xe2ae5b…
07-28 22:12:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	361	38¢	$138	0xb87591…
07-27 21:16:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	361	53¢	$191	0x001239…
07-27 21:15:28	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	286	67¢	$191	0x461a3f…
07-27 20:38:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	211	67¢	$141	0x5241c1…
07-27 19:04:25	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	SELL	338	7¢	$22	0xa716d1…
07-26 03:54:15	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	338	59¢	$200	0x7a477a…
07-26 03:47:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	382	97¢	$370	0x05526c…
07-26 00:40:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	379	47¢	$178	0x08b719…
07-25 21:50:58	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	380	66¢	$250	0xe1fb3f…
07-25 21:45:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	294	75¢	$221	0x237a50…
07-25 06:15:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	379	66¢	$250	0x7bfcc2…
07-25 06:15:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	315	95¢	$301	0xbfcb39…
07-24 14:10:58	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0xc0b319…
07-24 01:22:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	90	75¢	$67	0x7c2060…
07-22 03:24:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	225	81¢	$183	0x137b91…
07-21 22:55:43	Blue tsunami in 2026?	No	SELL	143	58¢	$83	0x0adffe…
07-20 08:23:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	294	85¢	$250	0x842629…
07-20 06:24:10	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	357	70¢	$250	0x2dddb0…
07-20 05:24:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	309	84¢	$259	0x93f117…
07-18 16:32:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	SELL	31	90¢	$28	0x567868…
07-18 16:32:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	SELL	295	90¢	$266	0x9e191e…
07-18 06:34:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	309	81¢	$250	0x87e362…
07-17 20:26:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	316	73¢	$231	0x119d78…
07-17 01:36:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	379	66¢	$250	0x7b2d86…
07-15 23:40:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	316	79¢	$250	0x5dc8ac…
07-15 06:27:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	357	99¢	$352	0xce5c84…
07-14 22:51:17	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	382	65¢	$250	0x3364e7…
07-14 22:50:32	US congress stock trading ban before 2027?	No	SELL	421	73¢	$307	0x2fa542…
07-13 22:35:58	GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	189	85¢	$161	0xc5b38c…
07-13 22:35:37	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	286	70¢	$200	0xf47596…
07-13 22:34:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	334	75¢	$250	0x2b365e…
07-12 09:31:58	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	326	54¢	$176	0x20e3bb…
07-12 04:01:49	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	109	55¢	$60	0xb515a1…
07-10 23:45:14	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	435	46¢	$200	0x2045bf…
07-10 00:05:52	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	321	90¢	$289	0xe15e4b…
07-08 23:36:19	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	SELL	163	68¢	$111	0xd431a3…
07-08 21:56:02	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	BUY	163	61¢	$100	0x0262cd…
07-08 20:48:22	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	321	78¢	$250	0xed71d7…
07-08 05:27:44	Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	SELL	83	30¢	$25	0xb0d14a…
07-07 23:30:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	309	99¢	$306	0x38e15d…
07-07 21:58:19	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	180	67¢	$121	0x219e51…
07-05 20:42:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	379	66¢	$250	0x187823…
07-04 04:15:44	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	348	69¢	$239	0x70f90a…
07-04 03:51:38	Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	SELL	150	71¢	$106	0x29207e…
07-03 23:38:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	167	97¢	$162	0x4b226f…
07-03 21:53:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	167	75¢	$125	0xd388d4…
07-03 08:29:13	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	348	72¢	$250	0xb8314e…
07-02 22:14:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	326	77¢	$250	0x9249a0…
07-01 04:02:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	357	70¢	$250	0xb15bf5…
06-30 20:32:43	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	206	72¢	$148	0x73f47b…
06-30 09:33:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	127	64¢	$82	0x22d530…
06-30 09:32:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	243	67¢	$162	0x2f959c…
06-30 04:27:37	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	70¢	$13	0x847b78…
06-30 01:40:31	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	67	64¢	$43	0xe32d62…
06-29 21:03:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	370	67¢	$250	0x92ae0d…
06-29 05:10:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	309	81¢	$250	0xc2c9e1…
06-28 21:32:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	451	58¢	$262	0x4c146b…
06-28 12:29:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	451	65¢	$293	0xeefa75…
06-27 22:52:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	431	58¢	$250	0x5e1648…
06-27 00:18:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	472	53¢	$250	0x9c61fd…
06-21 07:51:04	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	263	39¢	$103	0x3c2b07…
06-21 07:44:49	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0x60bf9f…
06-21 02:43:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x59d766…
06-21 02:43:43	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xf049e7…
06-21 02:43:37	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x09fc8e…
06-19 09:11:56	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	175	62¢	$108	0x3d4a72…
06-19 05:17:29	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	278	41¢	$114	0x3e8efb…
06-19 02:11:56	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	175	65¢	$113	0x287603…
06-19 02:10:59	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	36¢	$100	0xa505dc…
06-09 07:59:24	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	847	6¢	$51	0xa6be6a…
03-14 07:25:41	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	No	SELL	323	71¢	$228	0xcb54fc…
03-13 23:05:37	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	No	BUY	323	62¢	$200	0xe285a6…
03-10 06:55:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 16	No	SELL	312	66¢	$206	0xa7bbe7…
03-10 02:08:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 16	No	BUY	312	64¢	$200	0xc4ec91…
03-05 19:42:09	kristi noem out by march 31	Yes	SELL	333	100¢	$333	0x5f58c0…
03-05 10:18:27	kristi noem out by march 31	Yes	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0x1f7440…
03-04 19:28:45	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	18	63¢	$11	0xed649e…
03-04 13:31:13	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	21	63¢	$13	0xb1b5b6…
03-04 09:48:59	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x6c3a64…
03-04 07:59:05	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	70	63¢	$44	0x96ac70…
03-03 15:33:19	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0xef7e06…
02-28 06:50:23	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	SELL	410	10¢	$41	0xf84a1c…
02-28 06:40:19	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	732	3¢	$22	0x727c25…
02-10 20:41:23	lisa cook out as fed governor by february 28	No	SELL	22	99¢	$21	0x4e5392…
02-03 19:41:20	will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	Yes	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0x1ef3a9…
02-03 19:14:34	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	280	71¢	$200	0x8d12ee…
02-03 19:12:40	will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	Yes	SELL	1,033	2¢	$23	0xac9a0e…
02-03 02:55:44	will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	Yes	BUY	556	18¢	$100	0x2292bf…