New-Sponge-Fog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

83.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-25

last 09-14 19:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Politics

45% 91% +$0

Other

34% 82% -$5

Crypto

20% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes		+4	$2	94¢	$4	+$2	04-28 20:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	5	$190	190	190	+0	open	—	06-21 14:16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	5	$188	190	190	+0	open	—	07-14 08:51
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	9	$180	180	180	+0	open	—	08-21 12:09
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	8	$180	180	180	+0	open	—	09-14 19:51
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	8	$180	180	180	+0	open	—	07-27 12:37
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	8	$160	160	160	+0	open	—	07-13 14:25
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$120	60	60	+0	No	+$0	07-20 09:08
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$99	100	100	+0	open	—	05-22 19:47
will xauusd dip to 4300 in june 2026	5	$90	100	100	+0	Yes	-$6	06-04 20:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$78	39	39	+0	No	+$0	05-19 19:10
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	5	$78	80	80	+0	open	—	05-22 19:43
Will Trump visit China by May 8?	1	$75	75	0	+75	No	+$0	05-05 10:38
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	3	$63	260	140	+120	No	+$1	05-25 22:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29?	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	04-28 20:34
bitcoin above 56k on july 2 2026	1	$55	55	0	+55	Yes	+$0	07-02 08:42
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	2	$48	40	40	+0	Yes	-$2	05-25 21:59
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 26?	1	$45	45	0	+45	Yes	+$0	04-25 21:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	1	$42	42	0	+42	No	+$0	05-13 09:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 26?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-25 21:11
bitcoin above 56k on july 14 2026	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	07-13 19:44
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	04-28 20:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	04-25 21:12
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	04-28 20:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-13 11:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-19 19:13
will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	07-25 19:50
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	1	$6	7	0	+7	Yes	+$0	08-12 19:53
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	08-24 21:39
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	08-01 22:55
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	09-13 08:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-14 19:51:10	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	90	6¢	$5	0x50295b…
09-13 12:14:21	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	90	94¢	$85	0x810d64…
09-13 08:27:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x4ce0ef…
08-28 00:38:12	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	57	5¢	$3	0x5124ad…
08-28 00:11:54	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0xbd3aaa…
08-27 21:28:48	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0xaf563c…
08-27 21:19:45	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xe837e0…
08-27 20:30:22	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x553cc0…
08-25 07:25:18	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	90	95¢	$85	0xbbb139…
08-24 21:39:57	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbaafca…
08-21 12:09:16	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	90	95¢	$85	0xb0ddd0…
08-13 01:10:09	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	90	5¢	$5	0x5ca167…
08-12 19:53:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	7	98¢	$6	0x7c77a2…
08-03 17:31:59	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	90	95¢	$85	0xf9c2d5…
08-02 15:15:33	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0xa91dcb…
08-02 05:38:23	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x815635…
08-02 05:02:09	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0xa15384…
08-02 04:19:09	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x958b04…
08-01 23:20:54	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xb5c8f9…
08-01 23:01:30	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x1ffb37…
08-01 22:55:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x675701…
07-27 12:37:16	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	90	80¢	$72	0xb76de1…
07-26 20:55:37	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	90	20¢	$18	0xfce1cb…
07-25 19:50:34	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaa4cb5…
07-24 02:00:30	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	90	20¢	$18	0xe03c4b…
07-21 20:19:09	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x06077a…
07-21 19:54:52	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x2e0d9e…
07-21 19:48:27	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x5bd5c7…
07-21 18:08:46	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	34	80¢	$27	0xb58d2a…
07-21 17:42:54	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	39	80¢	$31	0xa64de1…
07-20 10:41:39	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0x7da21b…
07-20 09:08:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xe1973b…
07-14 08:51:19	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	95	12¢	$11	0xbab57d…
07-13 20:18:52	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xb31112…
07-13 19:44:44	bitcoin above 56k on july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbce1ef…
07-13 19:43:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x83b4c3…
07-13 14:25:02	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	79¢	$63	0x4be0e6…
07-09 19:10:37	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	80	22¢	$17	0x7fa118…
07-05 05:20:04	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x694449…
07-05 01:33:23	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	78¢	$13	0x914bcb…
07-05 00:35:58	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	76	22¢	$17	0x3d43e5…
07-05 00:00:01	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0x26121d…
07-04 23:58:52	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xb4dc08…
07-04 23:21:10	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x5c6d75…
07-02 08:42:49	bitcoin above 56k on july 2 2026	Yes	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xd58307…
06-27 19:03:22	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	78	86¢	$67	0x7b959c…
06-27 19:03:19	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	17	86¢	$14	0x41fe0c…
06-23 02:31:31	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	95	85¢	$80	0xfe2153…
06-22 11:27:05	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	95	15¢	$15	0x7d05b6…
06-21 14:16:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	95	10¢	$9	0xe48be3…
06-20 02:22:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	95	91¢	$86	0x33c551…
06-16 20:40:01	atp kicker coria 2026 06 15	Nicolas Kicker	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x7a32a8…
06-16 14:42:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	63	90¢	$57	0x26027c…
06-16 14:38:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	32	90¢	$29	0x6b8176…
06-16 02:32:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	95	9¢	$9	0x9ec723…
06-04 20:55:37	will xauusd dip to 4300 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0xb1bdc0…
06-04 11:28:04	will xauusd dip to 4300 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	37	48¢	$18	0xb0bfb0…
06-04 10:20:28	will xauusd dip to 4300 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	46	48¢	$22	0x71efb6…
06-04 10:14:48	will xauusd dip to 4300 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0x7c9f15…
06-04 09:36:39	will xauusd dip to 4300 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x6b1b10…
05-25 22:00:14	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	2	98¢	$1	0x9fe140…
05-25 22:00:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	140	1¢	$2	0x83b991…
05-25 21:59:49	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	No	SELL	40	58¢	$23	0x7c139a…
05-24 04:34:44	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	No	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x1407dc…
05-23 22:15:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x7891cf…
05-23 02:56:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xe55c44…
05-22 19:47:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	51¢	$26	0xc0172d…
05-22 19:43:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0xe3d4f0…
05-22 19:43:18	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0x6e7000…
05-22 19:43:06	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	53¢	$16	0x9584ae…
05-21 09:38:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x70507c…
05-20 09:26:37	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0xe3c3ba…
05-20 03:07:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x5f9691…
05-19 23:49:44	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0xbca6c1…
05-19 22:39:48	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	49¢	$7	0xb6ccd9…
05-19 19:13:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x557d9b…
05-19 19:10:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0xf452b5…
05-13 11:08:41	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x50bbdb…
05-13 09:53:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xeed7b3…
05-13 09:52:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0xb47110…
05-05 10:39:58	Jiujiang: Jiaqi Wang vs Xiaodi You	Xiaodi You	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x697993…
05-05 10:39:50	Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Leolia Jeanjean	Ajla Tomljanovic	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x8b3c67…
05-05 10:38:56	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x659df5…
05-05 10:38:38	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xb2cd89…
05-05 10:37:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x331620…
04-28 20:34:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x1ee86d…
04-28 20:33:34	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x0e76d9…
04-28 20:32:40	Will XRP reach $3.00 in April?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x781be0…
04-28 20:32:16	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe172fa…
04-28 20:31:54	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0x9fc15e…
04-25 21:13:00	Thunder vs. Suns	Thunder	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x4dd353…
04-25 21:12:50	Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals	Seattle Mariners	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x2e24db…
04-25 21:12:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x99a3f9…
04-25 21:11:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x17d349…
04-25 21:11:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 26?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x7c6b2f…
04-25 21:11:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xe63a29…