Costly-Quart — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.4%

Resolved

Trades

527

lifetime

Volume

$2.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 08-12 06:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

53% 33% $-1

Other

33% — —

Tech

9% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	3	$182	92	92	+0	No	+$2	05-09 05:57
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$115	72	72	+0	open	—	04-23 20:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$114	94	74	+20	open	—	05-24 08:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	16	$111	49	105	-56	open	—	05-25 20:21
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$104	54	54	+0	open	—	07-16 08:20
Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	6	$82	36	59	-22	open	—	08-06 16:10
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$78	66	33	+33	open	—	05-15 04:36
will pierre yves bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	6	$66	51	51	+0	open	—	03-16 09:12
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	1	$48	50	0	+50	open	—	05-25 12:40
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	13	$47	32	32	+0	open	—	05-25 07:45
will donald trump publicly insult pope leo xiv by june 30 2026	3	$47	25	25	+0	open	—	06-22 20:13
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	4	$46	25	45	-20	open	—	07-03 21:05
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	3	$40	24	24	+0	open	—	04-23 20:42
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$40	50	0	+50	open	—	05-14 10:56
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	6	$33	28	22	+5	open	—	05-15 14:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	5	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	05-25 16:54
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	3	$29	24	24	+0	open	—	07-14 20:22
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	3	$25	110	0	+110	open	—	07-08 15:59
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	04-25 20:22
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	4	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	05-23 23:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$22	14	14	+0	open	—	07-16 08:20
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?	5	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	05-18 15:37
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	4	$20	16	15	+0	open	—	04-08 20:07
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	4	$19	19	5	+14	open	—	05-21 23:38
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	05-22 10:54
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	07-03 07:42
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 15:04
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	8	$17	20	10	+10	open	—	06-07 00:55
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	2	$17	20	5	+15	open	—	05-22 13:11
Nothing Ever Happens: May	3	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	05-28 13:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 06:08:37	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xe8e93b…
08-11 22:27:54	Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?	No	SELL	40	14¢	$5	0x449562…
08-11 06:00:03	will us crude oil reserves fall to 350m by may 1 20260714141931929	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x1ba31b…
08-11 05:53:28	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xaebb2b…
08-11 05:52:48	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0xe3f3d3…
08-09 08:13:09	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x99f6f2…
08-09 08:11:28	will piers morgan attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630255	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xe12cda…
08-09 08:09:52	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x286873…
08-09 08:09:03	Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x13fbd2…
08-09 08:08:15	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x58c344…
08-06 16:10:08	Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	36	82¢	$30	0x7ae18d…
08-02 14:44:35	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x68d139…
08-02 14:44:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x6772e0…
08-02 14:41:48	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8dcc09…
07-23 13:11:25	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x08ac86…
07-23 12:59:07	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x7d612a…
07-23 12:57:54	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x266277…
07-23 12:57:45	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x3cacae…
07-23 12:57:36	Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x377bd2…
07-23 12:56:48	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xc7b14e…
07-23 12:56:36	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x3ad2cd…
07-23 12:47:33	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x5be6ad…
07-23 12:44:40	over 30m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129610 824	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x9b2170…
07-23 12:41:43	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x0ee653…
07-19 16:01:03	iran successfully targets shipping on july 17	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xbe3cdc…
07-19 15:56:57	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xc19040…
07-19 15:53:33	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	16	7¢	$1	0x248d59…
07-18 15:42:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x213263…
07-18 15:39:51	will canvas valuation hit high 50b by december 31	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xc56190…
07-18 15:37:57	will epic games valuation hit high 15b by december 31	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xa71f35…
07-18 15:35:39	will justin biebers monthly listeners figure hit 150m by august 31 20260710220109220	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x7f730c…
07-18 15:32:54	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xd207d6…
07-18 15:32:24	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xd28c27…
07-16 08:20:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xada9ac…
07-16 08:20:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0x4ad743…
07-16 08:17:44	will prime video announce a new project at sdcc 2026 20260713165131276	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7ae10c…
07-16 08:15:50	will justin biebers monthly listeners figure hit 140m by august 31 20260710220109219	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xbf8f48…
07-16 08:14:17	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x7310c3…
07-16 08:09:11	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x1834a0…
07-16 08:08:25	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x997d56…
07-16 08:07:46	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xffba83…
07-14 20:22:40	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	SELL	12	89¢	$11	0xedfff1…
07-14 19:55:47	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	SELL	12	64¢	$8	0x746f0b…
07-13 16:13:08	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xed3344…
07-12 17:46:08	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x9d6bd4…
07-08 18:43:13	will openais valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 366 424	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xf83f8b…
07-08 15:59:17	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xf9f1fe…
07-07 21:06:53	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	65	23¢	$15	0xd959a9…
07-07 06:18:43	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1480 by december 31 2026 20260623205144679 693 339	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xcc6013…
07-07 06:18:04	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x1b5d8d…
07-05 12:45:59	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x26ac9c…
07-04 18:05:04	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	Canada	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xa1bdfb…
07-04 14:37:50	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	Yes	BUY	16	7¢	$1	0xb5304a…
07-04 14:35:29	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0xfcde1a…
07-04 14:34:53	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xe76861…
07-04 14:33:53	Will Phoebe Bridgers attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x027832…
07-04 09:40:25	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x715e52…
07-04 08:46:56	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	Canada	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x87cf14…
07-04 08:40:19	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	Paraguay	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x87b014…
07-03 21:05:16	Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x9804be…
07-03 08:36:19	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x2b6005…
07-03 08:36:01	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x8cda5e…
07-03 07:43:29	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	Yes	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x26b913…
07-03 07:42:34	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x3f48de…
07-03 07:42:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc5a614…
07-02 14:25:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x9ee758…
07-02 14:24:34	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260629202434612	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x8789e0…
07-02 14:24:13	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x74133b…
07-02 14:23:50	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x29c780…
07-02 14:23:26	over 35m committed to the laso finance public sale 555 417	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x7d02cc…
07-02 14:22:37	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xf4b3fc…
06-30 22:25:08	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x216825…
06-30 05:47:01	Will Karol G perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0xe0407f…
06-30 05:46:41	Will Karol G perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x3d9eaa…
06-29 19:25:37	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xa39a2b…
06-29 19:14:58	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x119655…
06-29 19:14:14	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x441636…
06-29 03:13:38	Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0xbbf03d…
06-28 16:20:26	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x66fd68…
06-28 15:40:01	Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	72¢	$25	0x5d904c…
06-28 12:05:11	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x1c7e58…
06-28 11:44:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	Yes	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x99cf2c…
06-28 11:42:34	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x43b51a…
06-28 11:41:04	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xd7be3d…
06-28 11:40:26	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x2ecfae…
06-27 10:01:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x2a6db7…
06-27 10:00:01	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xb581d8…
06-27 09:58:16	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x871a77…
06-27 09:51:37	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xcb29b9…
06-27 09:48:47	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x83498c…
06-26 12:34:43	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30 20260612142709367	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xe1d793…
06-25 07:39:38	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xf38d9b…
06-23 01:40:20	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x8ae51c…
06-23 00:00:07	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x5d3179…
06-22 20:13:35	will donald trump publicly insult pope leo xiv by june 30 2026	No	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0xe8dcc0…
06-22 20:11:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x354ded…
06-22 10:33:59	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xa03ee8…
06-22 08:24:34	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x1b0621…
06-22 08:23:40	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x0032e5…
06-22 08:23:28	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xac17c9…