Flat-Mechanism-Quartet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

38.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$87

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 05-17 03:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

48% 50% $-1

Crypto

39% 25% $-2

Politics

12% 0% $-4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Solana reach $100 in May?	2	$14	13	13	+0	open	—	05-16 16:02
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$11	11	11	+0	open	—	05-12 10:23
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	2	$11	11	11	+0	open	—	05-12 18:34
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	2	$5	9	9	+0	Yes	+$1	05-11 08:12
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	2	$5	70	70	+0	open	—	05-15 23:23
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	1	$4	13	0	+13	Yes	$-4	05-10 17:27
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	1	$3	26	0	+26	open	—	05-13 18:42
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?	1	$3	14	0	+14	open	—	05-17 03:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-16 00:24
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 15?	2	$2	12	12	+0	open	—	05-15 20:07
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-15 23:57
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$2	20	0	+20	open	—	05-10 10:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?	1	$2	25	0	+25	open	—	05-15 20:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	1	$2	6	0	+6	Down	+$4	05-10 10:46
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	1	$2	15	0	+15	open	—	05-16 00:12
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?	1	$2	37	0	+37	open	—	05-16 16:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	1	$2	29	0	+29	Up	$-2	05-10 13:23
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?	1	$2	7	0	+7	No	$-2	05-13 14:13
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	1	$2	16	0	+16	open	—	05-11 08:40
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12?	1	$2	41	0	+41	Up	$-2	05-12 15:50
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 16?	1	$2	71	0	+71	open	—	05-16 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	1	$2	7	0	+7	Up	$-2	05-10 13:26
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 15?	2	$1	33	33	+0	open	—	05-15 20:06
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 16?	1	$1	12	0	+12	open	—	05-16 13:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 03:15:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0x527372…
05-16 16:28:32	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	71	2¢	$2	0xc87be3…
05-16 16:07:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	37	5¢	$2	0x012b9e…
05-16 16:02:16	Will Solana reach $100 in May?	No	SELL	13	80¢	$10	0xc8f42e…
05-16 13:00:56	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf67624…
05-16 00:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xe406a7…
05-16 00:20:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x928630…
05-16 00:12:30	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x964509…
05-15 23:57:55	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xc79499…
05-15 23:55:41	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x644848…
05-15 23:23:02	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	No	SELL	70	4¢	$3	0x12c0cc…
05-15 20:29:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x6b525b…
05-15 20:07:34	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x98acf3…
05-15 20:06:57	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0xc1ad44…
05-15 17:47:53	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x2660a7…
05-15 17:46:33	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xe7c773…
05-13 18:42:04	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	26	11¢	$3	0x3f0573…
05-13 14:13:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x9e38f5…
05-12 18:34:02	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	SELL	11	58¢	$7	0x32eb16…
05-12 17:22:54	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	No	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0xb52d7f…
05-12 15:50:46	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0xc9f7e4…
05-12 10:23:29	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	11	74¢	$8	0xe57abd…
05-11 08:40:15	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x9657e0…
05-11 08:12:43	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	9	34¢	$3	0xabfba7…
05-10 17:40:59	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x92b49d…
05-10 17:35:52	Will Solana reach $100 in May?	No	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0xce9085…
05-10 17:27:11	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	No	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x01227e…
05-10 13:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x0296b9…
05-10 13:23:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x985d58…
05-10 13:21:24	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xe0082b…
05-10 10:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x26e48d…
05-10 10:43:12	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x0b4657…
05-10 10:40:38	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x03defd…