Flat-Mechanism-Quartet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$35

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$174

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 05-17 03:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

45% 35% -$4

Crypto

34% 28% -$15

Politics

20% 12% -$16

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-17).

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Solana reach $100 in May?	2	$14	13	13	+0	No	+$6	05-16 16:02
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$11	11	11	+0	Yes	+$4	05-12 10:23
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	2	$11	11	11	+0	Yes	+$3	05-12 18:34
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$10	25	25	+0	open	—	05-11 15:24
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	2	$8	12	12	+0	No	+$2	05-15 20:16
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$7	100	100	+0	No	+$5	05-12 09:08
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	2	$7	16	16	+0	open	—	05-15 17:20
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 14?	2	$6	14	14	+0	No	+$2	05-13 16:56
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$6	12	12	+0	No	+$1	05-13 11:12
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 15?	2	$5	15	15	+0	Yes	+$1	05-13 14:12
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	2	$5	9	9	+0	Yes	+$1	05-11 08:12
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	2	$5	70	70	+0	Yes	+$1	05-15 23:23
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 11?	1	$4	16	0	+16	No	-$4	05-10 17:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19?	2	$4	25	0	+25	No	-$4	05-16 16:07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	1	$4	11	0	+11	Yes	-$4	05-10 10:44
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	1	$4	13	0	+13	Yes	-$4	05-10 17:27
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	1	$3	26	0	+26	Yes	-$3	05-13 18:42
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$3	17	17	+0	open	—	05-12 20:39
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 17?	1	$3	11	0	+11	No	-$3	05-13 15:36
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?	1	$3	14	0	+14	No	-$3	05-17 03:15
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$3	17	17	+0	No	$0	05-15 20:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-16 00:24
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 15?	2	$2	12	12	+0	No	-$1	05-15 20:07
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	1	$2	14	0	+14	No	-$2	05-15 20:22
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	Down	+$0	05-15 23:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?	1	$2	25	0	+25	No	-$2	05-15 20:29
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$2	20	0	+20	Yes	-$2	05-10 10:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	1	$2	6	0	+6	Down	+$4	05-10 10:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?	1	$2	37	0	+37	No	-$2	05-16 16:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	1	$2	29	0	+29	Up	-$2	05-10 13:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 03:15:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0x527372…
05-16 16:28:32	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	71	2¢	$2	0xc87be3…
05-16 16:07:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xff9f20…
05-16 16:07:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	37	5¢	$2	0x012b9e…
05-16 16:02:16	Will Solana reach $100 in May?	No	SELL	13	80¢	$10	0xc8f42e…
05-16 14:11:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0xca4052…
05-16 13:00:56	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf67624…
05-16 00:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xe406a7…
05-16 00:20:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x928630…
05-16 00:12:30	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x964509…
05-15 23:57:55	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xc79499…
05-15 23:55:41	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x644848…
05-15 23:23:02	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	No	SELL	70	4¢	$3	0x12c0cc…
05-15 20:52:18	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0xd20f49…
05-15 20:30:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x8332a7…
05-15 20:29:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x6b525b…
05-15 20:22:40	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0xe98c7f…
05-15 20:16:08	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	43¢	$5	0x98d22f…
05-15 20:07:34	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x98acf3…
05-15 20:06:57	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0xc1ad44…
05-15 17:47:53	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x2660a7…
05-15 17:46:33	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xe7c773…
05-15 17:20:40	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	16¢	$3	0x39d37b…
05-13 18:42:04	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	26	11¢	$3	0x3f0573…
05-13 18:34:12	Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0xc87ee0…
05-13 16:56:38	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	14	30¢	$4	0xcb30d2…
05-13 15:36:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0x04fbc6…
05-13 14:13:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x9e38f5…
05-13 14:12:03	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	15	21¢	$3	0x5277c8…
05-13 14:01:57	Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x1aa1ae…
05-13 11:12:35	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	31¢	$4	0x0543c4…
05-12 22:01:47	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0x977158…
05-12 21:13:28	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0xd19133…
05-12 20:39:59	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	9¢	$1	0x8ea287…
05-12 18:53:52	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0x6b5187…
05-12 18:44:34	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xc1321c…
05-12 18:34:02	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	SELL	11	58¢	$7	0x32eb16…
05-12 17:22:54	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	No	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0xb52d7f…
05-12 15:50:46	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0xc9f7e4…
05-12 15:40:40	Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	39	3¢	$1	0x9bd271…
05-12 10:32:26	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0xbdccba…
05-12 10:31:46	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0x41eeef…
05-12 10:23:29	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	11	74¢	$8	0xe57abd…
05-12 09:44:52	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x5409d0…
05-12 09:20:38	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xaacdb4…
05-12 09:11:40	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x0518eb…
05-12 09:08:03	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x1ffbdb…
05-11 15:34:46	Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x372a54…
05-11 15:27:18	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc3fdd3…
05-11 15:26:53	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x0331f5…
05-11 15:24:10	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	25	19¢	$5	0x6a5530…
05-11 08:40:15	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x9657e0…
05-11 08:31:02	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	7¢	$1	0x857b74…
05-11 08:12:43	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	9	34¢	$3	0xabfba7…
05-10 17:46:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	16	29¢	$4	0xee36de…
05-10 17:40:59	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x92b49d…
05-10 17:39:31	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0xf1d1e4…
05-10 17:35:52	Will Solana reach $100 in May?	No	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0xce9085…
05-10 17:27:11	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	No	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x01227e…
05-10 17:19:41	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xaf515c…
05-10 13:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x0296b9…
05-10 13:23:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x985d58…
05-10 13:21:24	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xe0082b…
05-10 10:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x26e48d…
05-10 10:44:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0xf940f8…
05-10 10:43:12	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x0b4657…
05-10 10:40:38	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x03defd…
05-10 10:36:33	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xa1ff02…