Realized P&L
+$6
Unrealized P&L
+$131
Hit rate
49.9%
Resolved
717
Trades
1,649
lifetime
Volume
$19.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$50
18 positions
First seen
2026-01-21
last 11-02 18:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 124 days
Categories
Other
51% 29% -$238
Politics
43% 36% +$232
Crypto
6% 40% +$2
Tech
1% 100% +$12
Sports
0% 0% -$2
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
38 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +30 -$19 34¢ $10 +$29 11-01 14:22
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? No +10 $6 62¢ $6 +$0 10-25 23:29
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +22 $7 24¢ $5 -$1 11-01 14:23
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes -103 -$68 5¢ $-5 +$63 05-21 09:12
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? Yes +53 $19 8¢ $4 -$14 10-29 11:12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -22 -$5 18¢ $-4 +$2 05-11 09:23
Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes +23 $2 13¢ $3 +$1 10-25 23:17
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes +9 $2 28¢ $2 +$0 10-06 18:52
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? Yes +15 $3 16¢ $2 -$1 10-25 23:17
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes -101 -$50 2¢ $-2 +$48 05-27 19:59
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +9 $1 14¢ $1 +$0 10-06 18:53
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? Yes +3 $1 37¢ $1 +$0 10-21 20:40
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? No +7 $2 15¢ $1 -$1 10-22 21:48
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes -21 -$3 2¢ $-1 +$2 05-27 19:59
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? No +6 $1 9¢ $1 $0 10-22 21:48
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? Yes +11 $1 3¢ $0 -$1 10-22 21:48
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes -17 -$1 2¢ $-0 +$1 05-27 19:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes -9 -$2 4¢ $-0 +$1 10-20 08:13