Good-Natured-Mango — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11.7K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.73K

Hit rate

36.7%

Resolved

Trades

338

lifetime

Volume

$45.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$133

Open exposure

$1.41K

17 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 10-27 05:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Politics

67% 24% -$1,912

Other

31% 5% -$9,276

Sports

1% 0% -$503

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+1,429	$500	32¢	$450	-$50	10-27 05:06
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	+1,415	$500	30¢	$424	-$76	10-27 05:07
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+3,414	$2,460	6¢	$222	-$2,238	10-27 05:05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+1,041	$491	18¢	$182	-$309	09-26 10:09
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+636	$55	6¢	$41	-$14	10-27 05:08
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Yes	+1,639	$50	2¢	$39	-$11	09-10 05:50
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	+369	$20	4¢	$13	-$7	09-10 05:51
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	+105	$15	12¢	$12	-$3	09-10 05:49
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+143	$10	6¢	$9	-$1	08-08 13:55
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	Yes	+340	$15	3¢	$9	-$6	09-10 12:45
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	+71	$5	4¢	$3	-$2	09-10 12:54
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	+69	$13	3¢	$2	-$12	09-05 13:18
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	+25	$1	4¢	$1	+$0	09-28 14:24
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+33	$1	3¢	$1	$0	10-02 06:27
Iran coup attempt by December 31?	Yes	+10	$1	8¢	$1	$0	09-28 14:20
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	+23	$1	3¢	$1	$0	09-28 14:22
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	+8	$1	8¢	$1	$0	09-28 14:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	5	$4.8K	3,151	3,151	+0	No	+$367	06-03 01:50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	6	$4.2K	17,971	14,557	+3,414	open	—	10-27 05:05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	21	$3.4K	9,375	8,335	+1,041	open	—	09-26 10:09
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$3.4K	2,018	2,018	+0	No	+$402	05-30 04:15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	11	$3.3K	24,232	24,232	+0	Yes	-$2,686	09-28 14:27
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	2	$2.9K	2,030	2,030	+0	No	+$1,092	06-06 17:58
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	12	$2.6K	33,124	34,524	-1,400	No	-$1,729	09-28 14:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	4	$2.0K	3,820	0	+3,820	No	-$2,010	06-12 15:40
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	12	$1.8K	1,517	1,517	+0	Yes	-$10	06-12 15:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	4	$1.6K	5,719	5,719	+0	No	-$1,374	08-29 06:11
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	3	$1.4K	1,254	1,254	+0	No	+$1,070	08-30 19:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$1.4K	4,862	3,695	+1,167	No	-$615	09-15 12:25
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	4	$896	5,320	5,320	+0	Yes	-$612	09-29 15:30
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	3	$635	6,576	6,576	+0	No	-$147	07-22 05:49
iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	4	$617	8,211	6,978	+1,233	No	-$143	08-02 15:39
will wti reach 150 in october 2026	3	$568	22,681	22,681	+0	open	—	10-27 01:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	2	$506	2,004	2,004	+0	No	-$494	09-29 14:18
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	1	$500	1,429	0	+1,429	open	—	10-27 05:06
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	1	$500	1,415	0	+1,415	open	—	10-27 05:07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	4	$454	8,670	8,670	+0	No	-$426	09-28 14:30
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$440	2,113	2,113	+0	No	-$287	07-15 21:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	4	$428	6,248	6,248	+0	open	—	10-27 01:27
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	3	$350	1,548	1,548	+0	Yes	-$270	10-13 15:57
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	5	$333	2,931	2,901	+29	Yes	-$171	08-12 17:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	14	$333	2,045	0	+2,045	No	-$333	06-03 09:02
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	2	$325	3,476	3,476	+0	Yes	-$75	10-11 10:19
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	3	$308	1,130	1,130	+0	No	-$302	06-30 16:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?	1	$275	810	0	+810	No	-$275	06-12 15:39
will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	4	$265	797	0	+797	No	-$265	06-07 15:21
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	11	$252	1,801	1,801	+0	Yes	-$216	05-11 02:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 05:08:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0x8c103c…
10-27 05:07:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	1,415	35¢	$500	0xfeb121…
10-27 05:06:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	1,429	35¢	$500	0x629712…
10-27 05:05:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	14,557	6¢	$890	0xaeb766…
10-27 01:31:05	Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x81bc07…
10-27 01:30:56	Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x89286f…
10-27 01:30:48	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xc5ca04…
10-27 01:30:42	Will Iran target Oman by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0xea0bf1…
10-27 01:30:32	Will Iran target Qatar by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x7fb4fa…
10-27 01:30:21	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0x896f42…
10-27 01:29:24	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x76df77…
10-27 01:29:17	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0xc98a92…
10-27 01:29:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	17	8¢	$1	0x18e393…
10-27 01:29:00	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0xea4881…
10-27 01:28:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in October?	Yes	SELL	1,228	0¢	$6	0x0da240…
10-27 01:28:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	Yes	SELL	1,745	1¢	$9	0x0bf071…
10-27 01:28:02	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	781	2¢	$12	0x4828cb…
10-27 01:27:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	5,568	1¢	$33	0x565300…
10-27 01:27:47	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,746	0¢	$5	0xd2a4a0…
10-27 01:27:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October?	Yes	SELL	22,681	0¢	$67	0xb7f949…
10-27 01:27:18	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8,690	0¢	$24	0x0cc62a…
10-27 01:27:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	Yes	SELL	6,248	1¢	$66	0x093470…
10-21 23:14:54	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,989	1¢	$60	0x97ce23…
10-21 23:12:38	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,710	1¢	$14	0xf82f14…
10-18 04:14:33	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,488	2¢	$50	0x68d140…
10-18 04:12:11	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	SELL	1,955	1¢	$21	0xc70604…
10-15 02:07:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 18	No	BUY	1,955	5¢	$100	0x2cf646…
10-13 16:01:30	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,213	2¢	$30	0x7cfc2f…
10-13 15:57:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	1,548	3¢	$40	0x93ef31…
10-11 10:19:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	3,476	4¢	$125	0x049fb8…
10-09 10:19:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	3,476	6¢	$200	0xa6a2cc…
10-02 10:55:53	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5,568	2¢	$100	0xaaad30…
10-02 10:55:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,500	20¢	$300	0xc8d9fa…
10-02 10:53:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	Yes	BUY	3,713	4¢	$160	0x0fa10f…
10-02 10:52:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	7,184	18¢	$1,300	0x8fb64c…
10-02 06:27:33	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x829764…
10-02 06:26:45	Will Iran target Qatar by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x7a7d0c…
10-02 06:26:30	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x6d91d4…
10-02 06:26:15	Will Iran target Oman by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xde50ec…
10-02 06:25:11	Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa1ab93…
10-02 06:23:09	israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xc56a97…
10-02 06:22:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x77dd68…
10-02 06:20:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	7,888	20¢	$1,600	0x154bc8…
09-29 15:30:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	838	17¢	$140	0x526fe8…
09-29 15:30:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	SELL	5,320	3¢	$142	0x52f2d3…
09-29 14:21:03	Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?	Yes	SELL	125	1¢	$1	0x6c8c7d…
09-29 14:18:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	Yes	SELL	898	0¢	$1	0x65cd6e…
09-29 14:18:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	SELL	2,004	0¢	$6	0x59615e…
09-29 14:17:57	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	SELL	3,386	1¢	$21	0x1c14f7…
09-28 15:47:54	will wti reach 140 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	1,198	3¢	$40	0xb9baaa…
09-28 15:47:38	will wti reach 130 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	1,710	6¢	$100	0xf0a293…
09-28 15:47:26	will wti reach 120 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	2,510	8¢	$200	0x300c52…
09-28 15:45:20	will wti reach 150 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	22,590	2¢	$500	0x91cb92…
09-28 15:43:29	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	251	2¢	$5	0xf773b3…
09-28 15:43:15	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x88c5b5…
09-28 15:41:56	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	562	2¢	$10	0x43c92b…
09-28 15:41:27	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	560	5¢	$30	0x2500e3…
09-28 15:39:44	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.6% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	87	1¢	$1	0x692fe0…
09-28 15:39:15	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in August?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x8e4d71…
09-28 14:32:12	Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xfef9e5…
09-28 14:31:45	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0x1df54a…
09-28 14:30:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	Yes	SELL	8,670	0¢	$14	0xbd798b…
09-28 14:29:17	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	31,269	0¢	$31	0x2966bd…
09-28 14:28:41	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7,828	0¢	$10	0xde3530…
09-28 14:27:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,995	15¢	$300	0x203eef…
09-28 14:27:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	SELL	24,232	1¢	$304	0x0c7cfe…
09-28 14:25:54	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x0de580…
09-28 14:25:30	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x7abf82…
09-28 14:24:51	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x73be57…
09-28 14:24:12	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x0b340c…
09-28 14:23:53	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xfea30e…
09-28 14:22:53	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xe3354e…
09-28 14:20:32	Iran coup attempt by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x379fee…
09-28 14:19:53	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa5a63c…
09-28 14:19:15	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xf67c44…
09-28 14:18:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xdf8383…
09-28 14:17:23	will wti reach 140 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x3c28b3…
09-28 14:17:06	will wti reach 130 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x3cbcb2…
09-28 14:16:35	will wti reach 150 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xe6d86c…
09-28 14:16:12	will wti reach 120 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x98cc9d…
09-28 14:15:12	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x2695af…
09-28 14:14:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x1bca12…
09-26 10:10:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	3,753	15¢	$550	0x74ae8a…
09-26 10:09:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,295	16¢	$527	0xa7cbe9…
09-25 15:17:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	1,527	13¢	$200	0x6ed844…
09-25 15:17:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	6,164	5¢	$300	0x3510f7…
09-25 15:16:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4,286	14¢	$600	0xfac41a…
09-25 15:16:02	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7,533	1¢	$100	0x89a8da…
09-22 18:29:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x08ad03…
09-22 18:28:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x253951…
09-21 14:53:50	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	SELL	1,815	0¢	$4	0x25553b…
09-21 14:53:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	Yes	BUY	2,558	2¢	$40	0xb3d45e…
09-17 17:24:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	2,004	25¢	$500	0x392b24…
09-17 17:23:33	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	BUY	1,815	6¢	$100	0xac110f…
09-17 17:22:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	2,659	9¢	$239	0xe5cc36…
09-17 17:19:03	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,364	6¢	$200	0xafb4a8…
09-17 17:18:22	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	769	13¢	$100	0x0b4534…
09-17 17:17:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	Yes	BUY	898	11¢	$100	0x0191e1…
09-17 17:15:33	Total Internet Blackout in Iran by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	7¢	$5	0xd99f89…
09-15 12:28:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	1,111	9¢	$100	0x2396ad…