Ethical-Caribou — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$426.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$137

Hit rate

64.9%

Resolved

Trades

6,672

lifetime

Volume

$9.68M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.45K

Open exposure

$11

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 07-24 11:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Politics

99% 72% -$428,892

Tech

0% 100% +$3,997

Other

0% 0% -$1,868

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-24).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes		+339	$78	3¢	$11	-$67	05-15 15:42
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No		+0	-$204	98¢	$0	+$204	05-19 08:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	508	$2.49M	2,151,194	2,151,194	+0	Yes	-$1,253,698	06-15 19:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,331	$1.78M	1,322,036	828,673	+493,363	No	+$243,005	05-31 20:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	842	$1.09M	646,655	612,342	+34,314	No	+$114,437	06-04 22:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	250	$1.08M	586,624	586,624	+0	No	+$82,255	05-15 11:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	747	$1.00M	920,434	544,158	+376,276	No	+$239,529	04-27 20:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	951	$828.5K	816,905	816,905	+0	Yes	-$2,747	06-14 23:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	61	$389.8K	198,088	198,088	+0	No	+$4,431	04-23 17:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	53	$187.2K	124,995	78,249	+46,746	No	+$14,870	05-27 00:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	161	$182.9K	372,800	372,800	+0	Yes	+$133,857	05-09 08:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	112	$91.5K	75,000	75,000	+0	No	+$12,000	04-24 16:31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	109	$86.4K	81,089	81,089	+0	No	+$14,300	04-24 17:04
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	18	$71.5K	78,993	0	+78,993	No	+$7,452	04-23 08:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	21	$45.2K	23,799	23,799	+0	No	+$1,930	05-10 22:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	98	$44.5K	25,000	25,000	+0	No	+$0	05-24 11:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	62	$41.4K	22,471	22,471	+0	No	+$3,285	05-12 04:30
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	26	$34.2K	20,000	20,000	+0	open	—	05-19 08:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	43	$29.1K	30,000	30,000	+0	No	+$5,700	04-24 16:05
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	44	$27.9K	29,687	0	+29,687	No	+$1,783	04-27 09:10
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	754	$26.3K	62,879	0	+62,879	Yes	-$26,340	07-15 14:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	19	$23.8K	45,000	45,000	+0	Yes	+$1,350	05-07 20:47
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	9	$23.2K	12,000	12,000	+0	No	+$672	05-23 01:13
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	157	$19.5K	59,694	0	+59,694	No	-$19,531	07-24 11:20
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	14	$19.5K	25,200	25,200	+0	No	+$146	05-20 14:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	77	$14.4K	18,562	18,562	+0	Yes	+$1,200	05-29 09:12
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	33	$13.7K	8,897	8,897	+0	Yes	+$2,135	05-15 11:34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	13	$7.6K	5,198	5,198	+0	No	-$1,178	05-27 13:57
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	54	$4.4K	57,258	17,762	+39,497	No	-$2,891	06-13 20:59
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	4	$4.3K	6,000	6,000	+0	Yes	-$2,940	05-29 15:06
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	10	$3.1K	3,759	3,759	+0	open	—	05-20 15:26
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	15	$2.7K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-20 14:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 11:20:13	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	148	37¢	$54	0x82ec52…
07-24 11:20:07	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	665	37¢	$245	0xeb961c…
07-24 11:20:07	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	188	37¢	$69	0xe56c32…
07-24 11:20:07	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	83	37¢	$31	0xba9015…
07-24 11:20:07	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0xb202cd…
07-24 11:20:07	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x273e48…
07-24 11:20:07	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	69	37¢	$25	0x1b91d5…
07-24 09:55:16	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	129	37¢	$47	0x3a928c…
07-24 09:55:01	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	7	37¢	$3	0x258df9…
07-24 09:54:51	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xf22cfd…
07-24 09:04:36	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0x8ea324…
07-24 08:14:31	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xc469dc…
07-24 08:10:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x59973b…
07-24 07:18:10	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xfaeb2d…
07-24 07:18:10	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x18a4cd…
07-24 07:17:40	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xc784cb…
07-24 07:17:40	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xbbb09e…
07-24 07:17:40	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	188	37¢	$69	0xb3095d…
07-24 07:17:40	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	69	37¢	$25	0x9630b9…
07-24 07:17:40	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x878831…
07-24 07:16:06	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	4,077	37¢	$1,500	0x8572ad…
07-24 05:39:45	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x85c3a1…
07-23 20:21:37	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	56	37¢	$21	0xd6ed02…
07-23 06:48:22	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x55604d…
07-22 22:08:27	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x07e4f5…
07-22 16:41:48	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,018	37¢	$375	0x010ca2…
07-22 16:20:52	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	4	37¢	$1	0x6b5f06…
07-22 09:44:12	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	52	37¢	$19	0x99214a…
07-22 08:12:31	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x0bfecf…
07-22 04:59:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	69	37¢	$25	0xfb7342…
07-22 04:59:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xc8ab37…
07-22 04:59:19	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xe7cb9e…
07-22 04:59:18	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	69	37¢	$25	0xf5d1fc…
07-22 04:59:18	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x5d287f…
07-22 04:59:18	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x485fd4…
07-22 04:58:52	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	148	37¢	$55	0x7d5677…
07-22 04:58:52	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	500	37¢	$184	0x34eb93…
07-21 18:50:34	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	114	37¢	$42	0x78af60…
07-21 18:50:34	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x246568…
07-21 18:47:39	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	238	37¢	$88	0x90c751…
07-21 18:12:48	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	46	37¢	$17	0x7ada68…
07-21 18:06:07	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	99	37¢	$36	0x577b30…
07-21 18:06:06	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	180	37¢	$66	0xe9d6f7…
07-21 17:42:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x61a2fa…
07-21 17:30:49	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	22	37¢	$8	0xe0bb6b…
07-21 17:29:45	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	34	37¢	$12	0xe456a5…
07-21 17:28:15	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	33	37¢	$12	0xa07efa…
07-21 17:13:16	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	126	37¢	$47	0xcefb4f…
07-21 17:10:28	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	34	37¢	$12	0x431c86…
07-21 17:10:22	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	195	37¢	$72	0xaca590…
07-21 17:09:54	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x243272…
07-21 16:45:34	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x4c2ea2…
07-21 16:35:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	79	37¢	$29	0x0a37c4…
07-21 16:35:39	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	110	37¢	$40	0x5862bf…
07-21 16:30:33	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	52	37¢	$19	0x0d5922…
07-21 16:27:30	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	69	37¢	$25	0xae87ca…
07-21 16:27:30	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	31	37¢	$11	0x9b56a9…
07-21 15:46:03	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	46	37¢	$17	0xd761c7…
07-21 15:46:00	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	500	37¢	$184	0xbf8c35…
07-21 15:46:00	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	26	37¢	$10	0x7fad81…
07-21 15:43:45	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0x8e89b5…
07-21 15:24:25	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xb5d9b9…
07-21 15:23:18	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	24	37¢	$9	0x189839…
07-21 15:08:12	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	55	37¢	$20	0x6530a8…
07-21 15:02:57	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	46	37¢	$17	0xe0485f…
07-21 15:02:52	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	500	37¢	$184	0x36254d…
07-21 14:56:09	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xb2d8a3…
07-21 14:51:45	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0xebe654…
07-21 14:51:45	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x02c1f0…
07-21 14:51:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	186	37¢	$68	0xbf3e97…
07-21 14:51:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	193	37¢	$71	0x9008bb…
07-21 14:51:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x8da230…
07-21 14:51:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	66	37¢	$24	0x8a1f59…
07-21 14:51:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	69	37¢	$25	0x160e4a…
07-21 13:59:31	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xec3c1f…
07-19 18:28:13	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	72	36¢	$26	0x64ceab…
07-19 16:14:37	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	6,036	37¢	$2,257	0xc829c9…
07-19 08:54:30	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	48	36¢	$17	0xd60ddf…
07-18 12:18:19	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	276	36¢	$100	0x2f9791…
07-17 17:51:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x2fea5b…
07-16 14:41:20	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,050	36¢	$379	0xce648a…
07-15 14:43:23	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	30,000	44¢	$13,200	0xf420d5…
06-21 11:17:40	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	64¢	$11	0x8e4094…
06-15 19:17:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	11,922	4¢	$489	0x4fabf9…
06-15 19:17:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,000	4¢	$41	0xaf8cc4…
06-15 19:17:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	366	4¢	$15	0x541340…
06-15 19:17:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,000	4¢	$41	0x09b86a…
06-15 19:16:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xde1853…
06-15 19:16:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	61	4¢	$2	0xd462d1…
06-15 19:16:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x07b7c2…
06-15 19:16:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,464	4¢	$60	0xeaff3d…
06-15 19:16:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	4,425	4¢	$181	0x625972…
06-15 19:16:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	19	4¢	$1	0xe17d31…
06-15 19:16:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	49	4¢	$2	0x053b42…
06-15 19:16:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0x54963c…
06-15 19:15:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	5,530	4¢	$227	0x1c84c1…
06-15 19:15:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	5,240	4¢	$215	0x1d2bf3…
06-15 19:15:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0xe0ed72…
06-15 19:15:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	3,000	4¢	$123	0x95decd…
06-15 19:15:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	139,586	4¢	$5,723	0x5bca80…