Lustrous-Bachelor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$676

Unrealized P&L

+$1.10K

Hit rate

80.7%

Resolved

Trades

217

lifetime

Volume

$28.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$130

Open exposure

$6.79K

12 positions

First seen

2026-04-27

last 09-18 17:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Other

56% 74% -$993

Politics

36% 73% +$358

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

0% 0% -$41

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,000	$520	82¢	$820	+$300	05-03 20:58
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+893	$500	78¢	$699	+$199	05-05 18:00
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+700	$518	96¢	$673	+$155	06-04 10:51
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	+690	$504	97¢	$668	+$164	09-06 17:23
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?	No	+660	$535	97¢	$638	+$104	05-21 21:55
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+645	$593	99¢	$637	+$44	05-18 21:36
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+600	$558	98¢	$591	+$33	09-05 09:41
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	+590	$507	99¢	$583	+$75	06-02 05:33
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+550	$495	98¢	$539	+$44	09-18 17:05
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?	No	+520	$504	97¢	$505	+$1	09-15 09:43
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+500	$455	86¢	$432	-$22	05-02 00:37
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	No	+5	$3	91¢	$4	+$1	05-01 22:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	7	$2.5K	2,544	0	+2,544	No	+$94	06-04 13:21
James Comey arrested by April 29?	9	$1.2K	1,206	1,206	+0	Yes	+$169	04-29 16:53
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	8	$1.1K	600	600	+0	No	+$97	05-14 20:47
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	5	$1.1K	575	575	+0	No	+$72	05-16 00:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	5	$1.0K	550	550	+0	No	+$52	05-14 20:48
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	3	$1.0K	667	667	+0	open	—	05-23 18:54
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	4	$966	700	700	+0	open	—	05-22 07:46
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	11	$809	1,163	1,163	+0	Yes	-$191	06-01 13:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	9	$624	915	0	+915	No	+$290	05-15 12:47
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	3	$601	669	0	+669	No	+$68	05-14 11:52
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	1	$593	645	0	+645	open	—	05-18 21:36
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	10	$580	400	400	+0	Yes	+$20	05-11 22:10
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$558	600	0	+600	open	—	09-05 09:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	1	$542	570	0	+570	No	+$28	06-04 14:18
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?	3	$535	660	0	+660	open	—	05-21 21:55
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	5	$525	750	0	+750	Yes	-$525	06-03 14:31
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	2	$522	600	0	+600	No	+$78	05-16 13:32
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	41	$520	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-03 20:58
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$518	700	0	+700	open	—	06-04 10:51
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	1	$516	580	0	+580	Yes	-$516	06-03 04:03
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	8	$515	804	0	+804	No	+$290	05-09 21:41
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	3	$513	558	0	+558	No	+$45	05-12 14:07
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	3	$507	590	0	+590	open	—	06-02 05:33
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	1	$506	550	0	+550	No	+$44	06-01 21:49
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?	1	$504	520	0	+520	open	—	09-15 09:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	1	$504	560	0	+560	No	+$56	05-03 20:08
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	6	$504	690	0	+690	open	—	09-06 17:23
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$503	1,100	0	+1,100	Yes	-$503	05-17 11:51
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$500	550	0	+550	No	+$50	06-02 03:06
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	3	$500	550	0	+550	No	+$49	05-04 16:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-18 17:05:40	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	550	90¢	$495	0x55c61b…
09-15 09:43:36	Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?	No	BUY	520	97¢	$504	0x535d77…
09-06 17:23:00	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	73¢	$33	0xefe559…
09-05 20:03:45	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	185	73¢	$135	0x237b81…
09-05 13:32:28	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	74	73¢	$54	0xcf7923…
09-05 10:58:00	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	253	73¢	$185	0xc4f0e9…
09-05 09:41:18	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	93¢	$558	0x14e005…
09-05 04:03:19	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	112	73¢	$82	0x843586…
09-04 21:53:16	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xcd0d89…
08-28 14:28:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	425	75¢	$319	0x1e7f65…
08-28 14:15:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	242	75¢	$182	0xd69ab5…
08-28 14:08:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	820	61¢	$500	0x261d63…
08-27 14:44:39	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31 2026	No	BUY	580	82¢	$476	0xaa500a…
08-27 14:35:58	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31 2026	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x66e005…
07-17 14:25:45	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xfbd3ed…
06-29 17:03:17	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0xeab0b6…
06-26 08:27:31	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0x4fd355…
06-25 07:42:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xee582c…
06-19 14:29:04	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	111	94¢	$105	0xac8474…
06-04 14:18:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	570	95¢	$542	0x159a46…
06-04 13:21:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,950	0xe3dc69…
06-04 10:51:45	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	696	74¢	$515	0x5144ca…
06-04 10:08:51	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x6f7578…
06-03 14:31:36	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	199	70¢	$140	0x065531…
06-03 14:17:43	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x7204e5…
06-03 10:46:02	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	350	70¢	$245	0xbdc428…
06-03 10:46:00	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	126	70¢	$88	0x1ac626…
06-03 10:45:58	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	69	70¢	$48	0x4b3909…
06-03 04:03:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	580	89¢	$516	0x14cb0d…
06-02 05:33:33	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	140	86¢	$120	0x46739c…
06-02 05:06:24	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	86¢	$129	0x55995c…
06-02 05:06:10	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	86¢	$258	0xb85d90…
06-02 03:06:59	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	550	91¢	$500	0xfd10b4…
06-01 21:49:51	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	550	92¢	$506	0xb83e5d…
06-01 13:26:14	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	SELL	308	25¢	$77	0x6d8806…
06-01 13:25:41	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	SELL	132	26¢	$34	0xceaea9…
06-01 13:24:40	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x916c7b…
06-01 13:24:38	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x733921…
06-01 13:24:36	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0xed4a81…
06-01 13:24:36	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	SELL	29	27¢	$8	0xe6a93b…
06-01 13:24:36	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	SELL	462	27¢	$125	0xdab2c7…
06-01 13:24:36	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0xb5cb18…
06-01 13:24:08	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	SELL	210	28¢	$59	0x1bb9ce…
05-27 10:22:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x887fb8…
05-23 18:54:08	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	404	76¢	$307	0x89a543…
05-23 18:54:08	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	263	76¢	$200	0x64934a…
05-22 15:07:33	Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	No	BUY	303	84¢	$255	0x7cf821…
05-22 07:46:46	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	438	76¢	$333	0x265e9f…
05-21 21:55:38	José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?	No	BUY	591	81¢	$479	0xcf3201…
05-21 21:03:10	José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?	No	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0xdd32fc…
05-21 20:43:43	José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?	No	BUY	38	81¢	$31	0xc84633…
05-21 18:39:19	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xde84f3…
05-21 18:35:05	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	262	76¢	$199	0xc2618b…
05-18 21:36:31	Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	645	92¢	$593	0x302740…
05-17 11:51:27	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x881567…
05-16 13:32:03	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	514	87¢	$447	0xe74271…
05-16 12:07:09	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	86	87¢	$75	0x4269be…
05-16 10:34:12	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x361e73…
05-16 06:40:13	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	500	62¢	$310	0x3e76f7…
05-16 00:12:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	397	100¢	$395	0x918acf…
05-15 23:02:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x06f9c3…
05-15 22:48:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x43c626…
05-15 22:32:47	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	46¢	$460	0x1889df…
05-15 22:21:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	44	99¢	$44	0x79bbce…
05-15 12:47:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	187	62¢	$116	0x49d333…
05-15 12:45:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x8871ca…
05-14 20:48:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	550	99¢	$547	0xae7211…
05-14 20:47:01	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	600	99¢	$595	0xa9ed7c…
05-14 11:52:02	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	165	90¢	$148	0xce0037…
05-14 11:40:27	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xbb2bde…
05-14 11:38:39	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	404	90¢	$363	0x08dbbf…
05-14 08:18:23	Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	No	BUY	520	77¢	$400	0xcc40ee…
05-12 17:42:07	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	158	88¢	$139	0x5ca6e1…
05-12 17:14:05	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	360	88¢	$317	0xf2774e…
05-12 14:07:25	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	241	92¢	$221	0x33f7e8…
05-12 11:09:55	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	59	92¢	$55	0x2c399e…
05-12 04:15:36	Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x9fcf4a…
05-12 04:15:15	Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x1300a2…
05-11 22:10:17	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	57	75¢	$43	0x1d3b5b…
05-11 22:03:03	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x9d6209…
05-11 22:02:25	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	148	75¢	$111	0xe4a1f0…
05-11 21:57:52	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x614759…
05-11 21:39:56	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	13	75¢	$10	0x97f9c3…
05-11 21:31:58	Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x7f1309…
05-11 21:31:35	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	33	75¢	$25	0x476d11…
05-11 21:24:53	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	67	75¢	$50	0x1cba97…
05-11 21:23:20	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	27	75¢	$20	0x3ea4b2…
05-11 17:25:06	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x33a0df…
05-11 17:17:31	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	88¢	$37	0xe87a57…
05-11 15:17:44	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xe50734…
05-11 15:08:38	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	362	70¢	$253	0x8df455…
05-11 14:42:14	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	38	70¢	$27	0xa9cd51…
05-11 06:03:02	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x767e2c…
05-11 05:58:20	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	258	92¢	$237	0x7be6f5…
05-09 21:41:49	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	23	64¢	$14	0x5f1560…
05-09 21:31:40	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	34	64¢	$22	0xabbd69…
05-09 21:29:04	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	35	64¢	$23	0x57971f…
05-09 21:29:03	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	494	64¢	$316	0x29beef…
05-09 19:05:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	187	70¢	$131	0xe68f91…
05-09 18:28:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x29f7dd…