Near-Epauliere — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.65K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.8%

Resolved

Trades

14,031

lifetime

Volume

$115.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-01 21:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

63% 50% +$2,651

Other

37% — —

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 113 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	13,058	$60.9K	59,275	54,812	+4,463	Yes	+$2,779	05-08 15:02
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	54	$13.4K	7,230	12,480	-5,250	open	—	01-31 08:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	11	$6.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-01 02:04
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	287	$6.1K	0	12,358	-12,358	open	—	06-05 14:34
Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	22	$5.0K	6,991	8,396	-1,405	open	—	02-01 08:19
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	15	$4.7K	4,177	4,177	+0	open	—	03-09 17:09
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	233	$3.6K	3,587	3,544	+43	open	—	07-03 09:37
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	103	$2.8K	4,641	1,040	+3,600	open	—	07-28 17:20
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	51	$2.3K	17,609	17,046	+563	open	—	03-09 16:38
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	20	$2.0K	6,022	5,500	+522	open	—	03-09 17:28
Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	37	$1.4K	8,751	12,437	-3,687	open	—	02-01 08:24
will cdu win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	18	$949	3,164	3,005	+159	open	—	03-09 15:58
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$786	0	812	-812	open	—	07-01 21:40
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	1	$696	700	0	+700	open	—	01-08 00:50
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$611	0	650	-650	open	—	07-17 17:03
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	2	$464	500	0	+500	open	—	06-06 18:23
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$340	0	400	-400	open	—	01-09 23:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$282	170	170	+0	open	—	02-14 08:21
ukraine calls a referendum on peace deal with russia by january 31	3	$198	0	200	-200	open	—	01-13 15:48
will zelenskyy attend the world economic forum	4	$165	201	0	+201	open	—	01-21 17:41
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	1	$141	150	0	+150	open	—	04-16 06:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$128	144	0	+144	Yes	$-128	04-09 11:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$114	120	0	+120	open	—	06-10 14:17
will china join the board of peace	2	$93	50	50	+0	open	—	02-12 15:17
will afd win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	16	$74	1,276	1,276	+0	open	—	03-08 18:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$67	117	37	+80	open	—	04-24 07:50
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	25	$54	1,770	0	+1,770	open	—	02-05 16:47
will israel strike 3 countries in february 2026	1	$52	70	0	+70	open	—	01-23 22:26
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?	2	$51	50	50	+0	open	—	02-27 19:18
will the us strike 1 countries in february 2026	4	$47	100	0	+100	open	—	02-01 14:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-01 21:14:42	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0x3c475a…
08-01 18:50:54	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	14¢	$5	0x74b2d6…
07-28 17:20:08	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x9a0564…
07-28 15:30:58	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xab2032…
07-28 14:38:58	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0x19694c…
07-28 12:21:05	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0x00fa5d…
07-28 11:28:17	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0xbb9fc5…
07-28 10:34:22	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	13	50¢	$6	0x1cea17…
07-28 04:53:30	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0x5ac9c8…
07-27 23:38:40	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xedec85…
07-27 20:40:04	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x45e419…
07-27 11:42:01	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	33	50¢	$17	0x450bd4…
07-27 11:41:58	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	27	50¢	$14	0xfbe23d…
07-27 10:53:19	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	815	50¢	$407	0xa21631…
07-17 17:03:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	650	94¢	$611	0x0a802e…
07-03 09:37:22	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1,970	51¢	$1,005	0x12e0b3…
07-01 21:40:14	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	812	97¢	$786	0x562eb9…
06-23 02:20:25	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	1,200	50¢	$600	0x4c6631…
06-23 00:15:25	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2dfb49…
06-22 22:38:08	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0x1698fe…
06-22 22:33:59	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4a5b9a…
06-22 22:33:29	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x22eae1…
06-22 20:49:49	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc70ff1…
06-22 18:57:26	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7910da…
06-22 17:28:31	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x16c6ad…
06-22 16:55:01	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x7e1784…
06-22 16:55:01	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x57ae06…
06-22 16:42:44	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xfe7638…
06-22 16:42:43	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x7b3709…
06-22 16:42:26	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x305b98…
06-22 16:37:11	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xcbf014…
06-22 16:36:56	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb14c90…
06-22 16:36:55	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x8e65db…
06-22 16:25:29	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc3ae03…
06-22 16:25:29	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa0a292…
06-22 16:19:47	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3b2bfe…
06-22 16:19:47	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x2a777a…
06-22 16:13:56	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3137c3…
06-22 16:13:56	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x21ddc0…
06-22 16:08:13	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xee7d07…
06-22 16:08:13	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x4bb987…
06-22 16:02:28	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xffa4b8…
06-22 16:02:28	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb6f4ac…
06-22 15:59:49	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x640e20…
06-22 15:56:43	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xbd54fc…
06-22 15:56:43	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x95b59c…
06-22 15:38:14	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x26dd01…
06-22 14:39:22	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x5d9834…
06-22 09:28:22	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xfea8ee…
06-22 07:29:26	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xde167f…
06-22 07:29:26	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa80330…
06-22 07:29:26	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa7caa9…
06-22 07:29:26	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x94abe7…
06-22 07:20:43	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xee5e20…
06-22 07:20:43	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x9e40b3…
06-22 07:20:43	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x676339…
06-22 07:20:43	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x436796…
06-22 07:18:19	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xf4d96d…
06-22 07:18:19	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x81a908…
06-22 07:18:19	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x73e8d9…
06-22 07:18:19	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x0e3ddc…
06-22 06:18:07	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x68d2a9…
06-22 05:46:17	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf60a3f…
06-22 00:33:25	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7a1a51…
06-22 00:20:59	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xb7e19e…
06-22 00:11:13	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xead30e…
06-22 00:05:08	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xfc2891…
06-21 22:57:53	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x94380d…
06-21 21:51:55	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	608	50¢	$304	0x167a13…
06-20 22:42:16	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xc8838a…
06-20 22:31:41	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7e5a97…
06-20 22:13:13	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2fc01f…
06-20 22:13:11	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe39add…
06-20 22:13:11	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x773ea0…
06-20 22:13:11	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x62a8ce…
06-20 20:52:10	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x6f7fa3…
06-20 19:09:44	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	52	50¢	$26	0x440e4d…
06-20 17:35:11	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4b3e42…
06-20 15:53:02	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xba241f…
06-20 15:00:56	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x498447…
06-20 10:40:19	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9a357a…
06-20 08:18:41	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x62b27a…
06-20 08:18:13	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	19	50¢	$10	0x17c157…
06-20 07:03:32	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0xe33e87…
06-20 07:03:28	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0664c5…
06-20 06:19:35	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0x70780a…
06-20 06:19:32	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1252af…
06-20 03:15:13	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0f88a0…
06-19 22:34:29	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd14da4…
06-19 20:39:04	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x3478b6…
06-19 20:33:07	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xfa8ec0…
06-19 20:17:20	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xc28113…
06-19 18:50:19	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xd845d7…
06-19 18:18:47	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x169655…
06-19 17:41:19	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xcbd7f1…
06-19 17:10:13	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x9782cd…
06-19 14:51:58	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf4be1f…
06-19 14:49:28	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x71da30…
06-19 14:44:28	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	21	50¢	$10	0x7d0fa6…
06-19 14:23:31	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	21	50¢	$11	0xc8d106…