Near-Epauliere — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.65K

Unrealized P&L

-$50

Hit rate

99.8%

Resolved

Trades

13,802

lifetime

Volume

$108.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$7.88K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-13 21:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

65% 50% +$2,651

Other

35% — —

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 1370 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	-12,358	$-6,056	50¢	$-6117	$-62	06-05 14:34
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	+1,703	$851	50¢	$860	+$9	06-13 21:34
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+500	$464	93¢	$463	$-1	06-06 18:23
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	+878	$439	50¢	$443	+$4	06-14 03:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	13,058	$60.9K	59,275	54,812	+4,463	Yes	+$2,779	05-08 15:02
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	54	$13.4K	7,230	12,480	-5,250	open	—	01-31 08:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	11	$6.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-01 02:04
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	287	$6.1K	0	12,358	-12,358	open	—	06-05 14:34
Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	22	$5.0K	6,991	8,396	-1,405	open	—	02-01 08:19
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	15	$4.7K	4,177	4,177	+0	open	—	03-09 17:09
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	51	$2.3K	17,609	17,046	+563	open	—	03-09 16:38
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	20	$2.0K	6,022	5,500	+522	open	—	03-09 17:28
Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	37	$1.4K	8,751	12,437	-3,687	open	—	02-01 08:24
will cdu win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	18	$949	3,164	3,005	+159	open	—	03-09 15:58
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	51	$851	1,703	0	+1,703	open	—	06-13 21:34
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	1	$696	700	0	+700	open	—	01-08 00:50
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	2	$464	500	0	+500	open	—	06-06 18:23
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	61	$439	878	0	+878	open	—	06-14 03:22
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$340	0	400	-400	open	—	01-09 23:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$282	170	170	+0	open	—	02-14 08:21
ukraine calls a referendum on peace deal with russia by january 31	3	$198	0	200	-200	open	—	01-13 15:48
will zelenskyy attend the world economic forum	4	$165	201	0	+201	open	—	01-21 17:41
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	1	$141	150	0	+150	open	—	04-16 06:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$128	144	0	+144	Yes	$-128	04-09 11:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$114	120	0	+120	open	—	06-10 14:17
will china join the board of peace	2	$93	50	50	+0	open	—	02-12 15:17
will afd win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	16	$74	1,276	1,276	+0	open	—	03-08 18:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$67	117	37	+80	open	—	04-24 07:50
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	25	$54	1,770	0	+1,770	open	—	02-05 16:47
will israel strike 3 countries in february 2026	1	$52	70	0	+70	open	—	01-23 22:26
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?	2	$51	50	50	+0	open	—	02-27 19:18
will the us strike 1 countries in february 2026	4	$47	100	0	+100	open	—	02-01 14:21
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	1	$47	0	50	-50	open	—	03-17 20:35
will trumps greenland tariffs go into effect for norway by feburary 1	1	$41	65	0	+65	open	—	01-20 02:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 03:22:27	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x6d63ce…
06-13 21:34:13	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xf2cb7e…
06-13 20:53:33	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	27	50¢	$14	0x4d97d4…
06-13 04:34:43	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xcca012…
06-12 22:55:09	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xcba403…
06-12 22:24:37	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0xa9ecd3…
06-12 21:23:52	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x2cdf6d…
06-12 17:08:12	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x114115…
06-12 15:03:19	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa6707f…
06-12 15:02:22	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x302bd4…
06-12 14:59:46	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x3becc5…
06-12 14:54:43	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x1b309d…
06-12 14:52:46	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	13	50¢	$6	0x79c6e3…
06-12 14:50:27	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xf9a867…
06-12 14:50:27	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xdde65b…
06-12 14:48:31	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x4439d8…
06-12 14:48:13	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xe3cd6b…
06-12 14:16:40	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x9fe8f8…
06-12 14:11:42	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xb208f6…
06-12 14:09:00	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xd81f0f…
06-12 14:08:01	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xc3aef5…
06-12 13:09:04	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0xe3dae5…
06-12 06:28:16	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x57e5ba…
06-12 06:27:34	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xdfa398…
06-12 06:26:42	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6e2214…
06-12 06:00:30	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xb7d492…
06-12 05:36:25	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x12f6fb…
06-12 04:38:18	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x70cd94…
06-12 03:23:52	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb6f064…
06-11 19:41:45	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe62dc6…
06-11 19:00:52	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc55701…
06-11 18:47:16	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x7d2e24…
06-11 16:50:04	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x01d957…
06-11 15:26:43	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7aa100…
06-11 15:26:13	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8348ab…
06-11 14:00:37	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xb0253d…
06-11 09:50:03	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5a9474…
06-11 09:11:34	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf480ae…
06-11 09:11:01	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa45d31…
06-11 08:09:09	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	21	50¢	$10	0xa51070…
06-11 05:27:18	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x609157…
06-11 02:08:22	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc18b69…
06-11 02:08:19	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xfe5ef2…
06-10 22:16:16	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xafedba…
06-10 22:00:30	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xd5e53f…
06-10 19:16:21	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xd2f849…
06-10 17:51:09	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x9de1a8…
06-10 16:50:03	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xcae534…
06-10 14:17:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	120	95¢	$114	0x4ac093…
06-10 12:16:03	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xcf30e3…
06-10 11:12:55	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x9f728e…
06-10 11:10:07	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xab9bb5…
06-10 10:46:45	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7a1bee…
06-10 08:23:51	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xc0d67e…
06-10 07:59:34	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xae446d…
06-10 02:48:00	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xbfcf72…
06-09 22:00:30	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xc869e5…
06-09 21:01:01	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x309ec0…
06-09 20:17:13	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x403989…
06-09 19:16:06	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x98666b…
06-09 13:08:51	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x817feb…
06-09 13:03:06	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x0bdeb4…
06-09 12:43:54	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0xecea6b…
06-09 11:37:06	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1a85e0…
06-08 22:00:31	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x3574e6…
06-08 20:09:39	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0xe11281…
06-08 18:47:57	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xfe45d9…
06-08 18:32:22	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xdababd…
06-08 17:37:30	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9769b1…
06-08 17:37:27	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xaa12b1…
06-08 11:33:04	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x76b76d…
06-08 11:33:04	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x2879e0…
06-08 10:26:54	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xd3531a…
06-08 10:26:25	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x454631…
06-08 10:26:21	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x9a3a07…
06-08 06:09:46	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x416f85…
06-08 04:50:33	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x39d17d…
06-07 21:01:13	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xd68884…
06-07 20:06:58	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2ed31d…
06-07 15:18:40	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	94	50¢	$47	0x83b29f…
06-07 11:19:43	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x764b9b…
06-07 11:14:31	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x33464e…
06-07 09:01:15	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x30d922…
06-07 08:59:42	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9f9819…
06-07 08:48:07	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x30554a…
06-07 06:00:28	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x09d501…
06-07 02:20:09	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8063e3…
06-07 02:20:06	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2d7d3d…
06-06 22:00:28	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x22ef52…
06-06 18:23:36	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	250	93¢	$232	0xa7950a…
06-06 17:27:19	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x51397b…
06-06 15:22:57	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	17	50¢	$9	0xce58c0…
06-06 14:39:19	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x9cb798…
06-06 13:52:43	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x1b70d5…
06-06 12:34:54	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2dd256…
06-06 12:04:51	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	1,237	50¢	$619	0x53d089…
06-06 06:16:49	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x944f7b…
06-06 06:00:01	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0xad237a…
06-05 19:01:12	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x8bb4dd…
06-05 18:14:33	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe32701…