Major-Stage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

+$36

Hit rate

48.0%

Resolved

Trades

334

lifetime

Volume

$5.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$79

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-20 06:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

84% 50% $-8

Politics

8% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

4% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+80	$43	99¢	$79	+$36	06-20 06:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$422	370	370	+0	open	—	05-11 12:48
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	4	$293	224	224	+0	open	—	04-18 15:06
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	4	$200	180	180	+0	open	—	06-03 10:55
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 15	2	$190	125	125	+0	open	—	03-16 04:39
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	3	$169	131	131	+0	open	—	03-20 00:26
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	7	$155	316	0	+316	open	—	04-20 07:17
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by january 31 2026	4	$149	125	64	+61	open	—	02-01 13:23
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by march 31 2026	4	$147	814	514	+300	open	—	02-06 21:35
highest temperature in chengdu on april 18 2026 30c	1	$142	150	0	+150	open	—	04-18 08:04
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	5	$133	78	78	+0	open	—	02-10 13:02
will mrbeasts next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 264	2	$112	65	65	+0	open	—	01-08 05:19
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 1	2	$109	77	77	+0	open	—	02-01 02:29
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 25	2	$107	75	75	+0	open	—	01-25 15:22
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	8	$106	75	75	+0	open	—	01-18 16:03
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	3	$105	85	85	+0	open	—	03-06 15:19
another us government shutdown by february 14	5	$90	323	0	+323	open	—	02-14 13:42
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 15	2	$88	53	53	+0	open	—	03-16 04:39
odds of khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 over 50 by january 16	2	$86	211	211	+0	open	—	01-14 22:02
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 11 311	4	$82	87	87	+0	open	—	01-12 04:01
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 6 12	5	$80	154	0	+154	open	—	04-07 13:53
israel closes its airspace by june 9	1	$80	200	0	+200	open	—	06-08 06:42
israel closes its airspace by june 8	1	$80	200	0	+200	open	—	06-08 06:40
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?	2	$79	100	100	+0	open	—	03-20 00:28
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 6 12	3	$79	121	70	+51	open	—	04-07 13:52
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	7	$77	50	50	+0	open	—	04-18 15:06
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	11	$77	740	450	+290	open	—	02-02 12:16
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	2	$76	50	50	+0	open	—	03-06 15:20
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	3	$75	52	52	+0	open	—	03-20 00:26
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 4	2	$75	75	75	+0	open	—	01-02 14:01
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	1	$53	73	0	+73	open	—	02-25 13:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-20 06:30:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	80	54¢	$43	0xbc033f…
06-08 06:42:55	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0xe5ad69…
06-08 06:40:30	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x89737d…
06-03 10:55:08	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	65¢	$74	0xfaff27…
06-03 10:05:06	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	65¢	$43	0x532d20…
05-31 22:31:07	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0x6d07bd…
05-28 22:56:51	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	46¢	$69	0x848cad…
05-24 02:09:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	18	52¢	$9	0x68d155…
05-24 02:09:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	75	52¢	$39	0x306bcb…
05-24 02:09:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x264d66…
05-24 02:09:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x6bb59a…
05-23 07:47:36	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	31¢	$24	0xb828f3…
05-19 14:05:53	Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	100 Thieves	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xb872fb…
05-14 17:12:26	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	No	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x97e577…
05-14 16:53:09	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xb2954d…
05-13 19:23:00	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x20cab8…
05-13 17:33:00	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0x251de9…
05-13 17:19:09	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	19¢	$1	0xe953bb…
05-13 14:56:16	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	No	BUY	65	7¢	$5	0x45062e…
05-13 14:35:49	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	FaZe	BUY	45	18¢	$8	0xb5cb77…
05-13 14:35:04	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner	FaZe	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0x5eff2e…
05-12 13:09:37	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	G2	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xa553fb…
05-11 12:48:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	370	87¢	$322	0x37505f…
05-11 07:51:30	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	TheMongolz	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xe15bcb…
04-30 17:37:02	Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$2	0xf4c5d6…
04-28 15:28:58	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x61aa6b…
04-28 12:28:00	Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?	Yes	SELL	45	1¢	$0	0x28dc82…
04-20 10:34:22	Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - April 26?	Yes	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0x3e6fff…
04-20 07:55:06	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x992d8f…
04-20 07:17:38	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	Yes	BUY	34	48¢	$16	0x8f441e…
04-20 06:41:22	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	Yes	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0xa9f364…
04-19 13:55:42	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0xf9bd26…
04-19 13:43:50	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x03dfdd…
04-19 13:43:44	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xa1a6a1…
04-19 12:22:44	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	Yes	BUY	53	49¢	$26	0xe11d1e…
04-19 07:21:36	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x338577…
04-19 00:32:52	will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 april 19	Yes	BUY	42	14¢	$6	0x187468…
04-18 16:10:48	highest temperature in chengdu on april 19 2026 23c	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0xf5b5a8…
04-18 16:00:30	highest temperature in chengdu on april 19 2026 23c	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x29e9ad…
04-18 16:00:18	highest temperature in chengdu on april 19 2026 23c	Yes	BUY	37	2¢	$1	0xba0ad9…
04-18 15:06:30	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	SELL	50	85¢	$43	0xd3526d…
04-18 15:06:28	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	Yes	SELL	224	81¢	$181	0xe65f21…
04-18 10:17:58	highest temperature in chengdu on april 19 2026 23c	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x32e9af…
04-18 09:21:02	highest temperature in chengdu on april 19 2026 22corbelow	Yes	BUY	88	2¢	$1	0x9752a0…
04-18 08:35:02	highest temperature in chengdu on april 19 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x8cd080…
04-18 08:20:40	highest temperature in chengdu on april 19 2026 24c	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$1	0x7421f4…
04-18 08:04:06	highest temperature in chengdu on april 18 2026 30c	Yes	BUY	150	95¢	$142	0x33ee6a…
04-18 08:02:02	highest temperature in chengdu on april 18 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xaeb333…
04-18 08:00:26	highest temperature in chengdu on april 18 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	24	10¢	$2	0xeb1263…
04-18 08:00:18	highest temperature in chengdu on april 18 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	38	10¢	$4	0x96c247…
04-18 08:00:18	highest temperature in chengdu on april 18 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x09c36c…
04-18 08:00:16	highest temperature in chengdu on april 18 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x2df9d4…
04-18 08:00:14	highest temperature in chengdu on april 18 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x098714…
04-18 07:16:36	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	102	15¢	$15	0x594ad9…
04-18 02:10:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0x477cd2…
04-18 02:02:12	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	102	14¢	$15	0x7eb219…
04-15 07:18:12	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x27546b…
04-15 07:17:32	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	12	7¢	$1	0xbdccb8…
04-15 07:17:12	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x7592ba…
04-15 06:51:00	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0x44fefb…
04-15 06:48:00	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xc7eb0c…
04-15 06:46:16	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xf5f901…
04-15 06:46:16	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x2842ea…
04-15 06:45:58	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0xb4fe5a…
04-15 06:41:34	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x8d918a…
04-15 06:39:44	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x8e2f04…
04-15 06:37:46	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	Yes	BUY	14	38¢	$5	0xb7436f…
04-15 06:00:50	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 23c	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x22324d…
04-15 04:51:24	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 22c	Yes	BUY	107	0¢	$0	0xa940a9…
04-15 04:47:58	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 22c	Yes	BUY	243	0¢	$1	0x2edaa9…
04-15 04:07:22	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 23c	Yes	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0x11f5ce…
04-14 19:44:54	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x95ddf6…
04-14 13:17:55	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 23c	Yes	BUY	31	20¢	$6	0x61bcfa…
04-14 09:43:43	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 22c	Yes	BUY	52	12¢	$6	0x592d2d…
04-14 09:42:33	highest temperature in chengdu on april 15 2026 25c	No	BUY	29	76¢	$22	0x044af0…
04-13 20:34:29	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0x04841a…
04-13 19:21:49	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	0	68¢	$0	0x5fbc93…
04-13 19:21:41	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	0	68¢	$0	0x30e0bb…
04-13 19:21:31	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	1	68¢	$0	0xb20f2a…
04-13 18:24:55	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x2135d4…
04-13 09:12:45	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	Yes	BUY	7	49¢	$4	0xe66b59…
04-13 09:12:45	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	Yes	BUY	174	50¢	$87	0x7bbc13…
04-13 09:12:45	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	Yes	BUY	43	49¢	$21	0x752969…
04-10 15:38:13	Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x416b6a…
04-09 03:05:59	Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xbb190c…
04-09 02:46:11	Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x979ef1…
04-09 02:46:05	Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x3f8201…
04-09 02:46:05	Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x03abe5…
04-08 16:57:25	Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x8a3cbb…
04-08 13:58:09	Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0xa9761f…
04-08 13:55:45	Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x6da267…
04-08 09:00:25	Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x379662…
04-07 21:06:57	Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x95022c…
04-07 14:22:25	Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x91ec52…
04-07 14:21:25	Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4d1b57…
04-07 14:21:09	Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	24	18¢	$4	0x379fa6…
04-07 14:21:05	Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?	Yes	BUY	24	18¢	$4	0xbc586e…
04-07 14:15:05	Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?	Yes	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0x16067f…
04-07 14:11:09	Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0x6758e9…
04-07 14:06:23	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xde12b4…