Fancy-Kill — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$56.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$139

Hit rate

83.7%

Resolved

425

Trades

3,148

lifetime

Volume

$202.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

$2.77K

21 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 04:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 162 days

Categories

Politics

73% 44% +$41,350

Other

27% 40% +$14,656

Sports

0% 27% +$2

Crypto

0% 33% -$10

Tech

0% 0% -$5

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day

Open positions (21) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+1,140	$492	64¢	$724	+$233	10-18 01:53
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+862	$517	60¢	$517	+$0	10-17 12:55
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	No	+892	$404	48¢	$424	+$20	10-15 00:18
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+428	$291	72¢	$306	+$15	10-11 01:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+447	$150	47¢	$210	+$60	10-15 00:19
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	No	+454	$284	40¢	$180	-$104	08-26 13:37
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	+389	-$180	32¢	$125	+$305	06-08 14:22
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+638	$83	10¢	$61	-$22	07-28 01:14
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+450	$214	10¢	$43	-$172	05-26 22:34
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	+100	$26	39¢	$39	+$13	10-11 10:12
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	+190	$76	15¢	$29	-$48	07-25 02:12
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+475	$109	4¢	$21	-$88	10-21 23:38
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+130	$35	14¢	$18	-$17	08-07 10:15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+50	$14	34¢	$17	+$4	10-08 00:33
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	+200	$30	8¢	$17	-$13	10-27 04:31
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+373	-$7	4¢	$13	+$20	10-10 21:12
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	+171	$11	6¢	$10	-$1	09-11 14:53
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+120	$48	6¢	$7	-$42	06-24 00:20
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+188	$20	4¢	$7	-$13	10-09 11:27
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	+600	$5	0¢	$2	-$3	10-18 11:25
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+110	$11	2¢	$2	-$9	05-08 00:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	105	$14.0K	17,917	14,473	+3,444	Yes	+$12,320	02-28 07:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	34	$10.3K	7,868	7,368	+500	No	+$3,998	05-25 22:08
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	35	$9.6K	8,253	5,753	+2,500	Yes	+$1,928	04-07 06:33
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	50	$8.9K	5,488	5,507	-19	No	+$408	04-02 01:58
us strike on somalia by january 31 956	50	$6.6K	4,929	3,281	+1,648	Yes	+$1,603	01-26 21:45
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	17	$6.5K	6,277	6,277	+0	No	+$6,068	08-30 21:07
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	36	$5.8K	8,976	125	+8,851	No	-$5,669	03-07 20:29
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	47	$5.1K	5,480	4,480	+1,000	Yes	+$2,871	06-08 09:05
us strikes iraq by march 7	18	$5.1K	3,212	3,212	+0	Yes	+$998	03-08 07:25
us strikes iraq by february 28	133	$4.8K	19,621	13,210	+6,411	Yes	+$3,807	03-05 02:35
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	27	$4.6K	2,867	3,616	-749	Yes	+$1,818	05-07 22:10
us forces seize another venezuela linked oil ship by january 9 2026 785	40	$4.6K	2,924	3,394	-470	Yes	+$1,733	01-07 15:28
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	12	$4.4K	3,700	2,700	+1,000	Yes	+$356	04-07 07:00
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	10	$3.6K	4,463	4,463	+0	No	+$1,897	05-23 11:45
us strike on somalia by january 31 563	56	$3.5K	2,444	2,474	-29	Yes	+$348	01-30 16:03
will uae strike iran by march 31	43	$3.5K	6,600	0	+6,600	No	-$3,458	03-06 17:47
us strike on somalia by february 7 553	86	$3.3K	3,167	2,193	+974	No	+$620	02-11 12:59
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	43	$3.3K	2,890	2,990	-100	Yes	+$2,536	03-01 07:27
iran closes its airspace by june 15	34	$3.0K	4,360	3,360	+1,000	Yes	+$1,956	06-08 09:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	11	$2.6K	3,067	3,067	+0	Yes	+$2,479	03-01 01:17
will israel or the us target tehran 812	38	$2.5K	6,980	3,363	+3,618	Yes	+$4,348	02-28 10:04
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?	32	$2.5K	2,566	1,320	+1,246	Yes	+$422	02-16 22:24
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	18	$2.3K	1,254	1,254	+0	No	+$212	07-29 23:18
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	13	$2.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$84	03-01 23:59
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	17	$1.8K	2,554	0	+2,554	Yes	-$1,801	04-10 23:40
Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?	13	$1.6K	1,228	921	+307	No	+$501	05-16 07:53
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026?	13	$1.6K	902	902	+0	Yes	+$198	09-01 22:11
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	7	$1.5K	1,700	0	+1,700	No	+$173	03-27 00:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	15	$1.5K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$876	03-01 08:16
will israel or the us target fordow nuclear facility	36	$1.4K	1,989	550	+1,439	No	-$754	03-08 02:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 04:31:03	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x1fe155…
10-21 23:38:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	135	31¢	$42	0x016189…
10-21 23:37:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	215	31¢	$67	0xb9de62…
10-18 20:37:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xb9ffba…
10-18 11:25:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$5	0x187e7a…
10-18 01:53:56	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x7c5952…
10-18 01:53:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	40	41¢	$17	0x2cc66a…
10-17 23:08:08	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0x6ef810…
10-17 20:01:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	BUY	596	0¢	$3	0x761654…
10-17 19:59:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x992357…
10-17 14:03:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	BUY	400	2¢	$6	0x6757f9…
10-17 12:55:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0xd4e445…
10-16 21:43:59	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	SELL	104	1¢	$1	0x9fe1d5…
10-16 21:32:56	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	SELL	1,709	1¢	$14	0x9dfe3b…
10-16 21:21:05	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0x978e9f…
10-16 21:14:09	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0x8817f0…
10-16 20:46:14	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	BUY	927	0¢	$1	0x377c22…
10-16 20:45:48	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xecf15a…
10-16 20:44:57	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5ab3de…
10-16 20:42:08	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	SELL	523	1¢	$5	0x6cc1ed…
10-16 20:39:15	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0x43d830…
10-16 20:33:53	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xd4c420…
10-16 20:30:44	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x9dd9fe…
10-16 20:28:44	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 19	No	BUY	590	0¢	$1	0xb84ba7…
10-16 19:14:01	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?	Yes	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x700391…
10-16 19:13:29	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xcf02b6…
10-16 06:52:43	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	Yes	BUY	760	1¢	$8	0x65119b…
10-15 10:09:50	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xb3ad07…
10-15 09:21:17	Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xa0a2cb…
10-15 07:23:44	Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?	Yes	BUY	106	1¢	$1	0xd2ff32…
10-15 05:52:49	Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xa45a46…
10-15 05:18:38	Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$2	0xdbeae7…
10-15 01:15:55	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	188	2¢	$4	0xe1a6d4…
10-15 00:41:31	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x2b6a0f…
10-15 00:27:04	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	332	2¢	$6	0xecfd2e…
10-15 00:21:34	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	600	2¢	$13	0x94efbf…
10-15 00:19:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0xe121ce…
10-15 00:18:55	us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0xa52c7d…
10-14 23:36:06	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x27acd9…
10-14 22:43:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 415	No	BUY	400	49¢	$196	0xbc3378…
10-14 20:37:52	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x9207bb…
10-14 19:21:52	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 17	No	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x37443f…
10-14 19:08:51	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	700	2¢	$15	0xa4f25d…
10-14 19:05:43	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x2b8ad9…
10-14 19:04:18	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	33	2¢	$1	0xc59796…
10-14 19:02:01	us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x1ad8cc…
10-14 19:01:16	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	700	2¢	$17	0x34e916…
10-14 19:00:55	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x817e09…
10-14 19:00:33	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x4ff512…
10-13 23:05:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xbf6002…
10-13 23:05:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	600	19¢	$114	0x9f7eaa…
10-13 16:30:03	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$9	0xcf0fc2…
10-13 02:10:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	200	3¢	$7	0x91eab5…
10-11 10:12:26	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	BUY	56	26¢	$15	0xa86bce…
10-11 02:23:39	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0x96a275…
10-11 01:35:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xa4a663…
10-11 01:23:29	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf2a032…
10-11 01:10:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	289	22¢	$64	0xdf4cba…
10-11 01:00:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	386	22¢	$85	0x3879fd…
10-11 00:59:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x35f0cf…
10-10 21:12:00	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	849	8¢	$68	0x0e2481…
10-10 20:57:43	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	268	8¢	$21	0xb1673f…
10-10 07:04:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x2ec66e…
10-10 04:17:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x235faf…
10-09 11:27:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	562	20¢	$112	0x237ea2…
10-08 21:24:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	297	0¢	$0	0xa2ac54…
10-08 21:24:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x662d8d…
10-08 21:24:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5087ce…
10-08 21:24:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xfd0ce6…
10-08 21:24:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	643	0¢	$1	0x622934…
10-08 16:23:36	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	5¢	$6	0xd0ef22…
10-08 16:23:03	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	284	5¢	$14	0x8ea4d1…
10-08 16:18:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x57f24e…
10-08 13:56:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	128	3¢	$4	0x616cd3…
10-08 13:43:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x1aace4…
10-08 13:20:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x605ce9…
10-08 13:20:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	162	3¢	$5	0xf7a19b…
10-08 11:11:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	600	12¢	$72	0x8c6513…
10-08 00:46:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	3,400	0¢	$10	0x9ce034…
10-08 00:33:40	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x91464f…
10-07 19:57:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$6	0xcefa40…
10-07 18:33:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	1,148	1¢	$10	0x22afce…
10-07 18:22:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	33	1¢	$0	0x2f94e1…
10-07 17:38:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	119	1¢	$1	0xc21091…
10-07 10:05:59	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	290	5¢	$14	0x7c1ba7…
10-07 10:05:47	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	6¢	$5	0xec29e0…
10-07 09:12:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	82	43¢	$35	0xa6f1d8…
10-07 08:00:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x63c16e…
10-07 07:44:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	400	2¢	$6	0x1abd4c…
10-07 07:42:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	170	45¢	$77	0x5fb9a7…
10-07 07:14:32	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	6¢	$7	0xb3e231…
10-07 06:31:35	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	6¢	$9	0x112baf…
10-07 03:44:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0xc68d57…
10-07 03:30:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x8503dd…
10-07 03:27:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x6dbbb1…
10-07 03:23:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x8bad8e…
10-07 02:02:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x6fc7f1…
10-07 01:59:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0x2fb542…
10-07 01:55:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	1,082	2¢	$24	0x6fefb6…
10-07 01:53:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0x5c0415…