Dramatic-Reluctance — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$110

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

58.4%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

2,076 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$299

$55.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-24

last 10-15 21:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 84 days

Categories

Crypto

70% 59% -$1,170

Sports

22% 55% -$300

Other

5% 36% +$421

Politics

3% 50% -$39

Tech

0% 80% +$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-6	-$8	97¢	$-6	+$2	08-13 03:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	5	$3.9K	2,444	1,850	+594	Timberwolves	-$173	05-05 04:40
76ers vs. Celtics	4	$1.8K	1,173	1,173	+0	76ers	+$540	05-03 06:52
Golden Knights vs. Utah	11	$1.5K	1,903	1,873	+30	Golden Knights	-$270	04-28 05:17
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	2	$928	1,395	0	+1,395	Spurs	+$467	04-26 07:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	4	$871	676	676	+0	Down	+$71	05-04 11:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	2	$807	411	411	+0	Down	+$7	05-04 10:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	5	$711	449	449	+0	Down	+$111	05-02 07:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	3	$669	607	312	+295	Down	-$131	05-04 11:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	4	$664	555	555	+0	Down	+$64	05-04 10:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	5	$650	497	333	+163	Up	+$10	05-04 11:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	5	$631	819	192	+627	Up	-$541	05-02 00:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	3	$616	619	328	+291	Down	-$184	05-04 10:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	5	$596	470	367	+103	Up	+$79	05-02 06:44
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	26	$591	1,373	131	+1,242	No	-$459	06-11 00:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$584	388	388	+0	Up	+$184	05-04 10:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	5	$581	617	372	+245	Up	-$219	05-02 01:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	3	$571	421	274	+147	Up	-$29	05-02 01:30
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	18	$555	559	457	+102	No	-$51	05-30 12:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	3	$510	565	0	+565	Up	+$55	05-02 01:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	2	$500	303	303	+0	Down	+$100	05-04 10:14
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	2	$491	382	382	+0	Yes	+$271	04-29 21:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	4	$490	717	371	+346	Down	+$13	05-02 07:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	4	$479	346	346	+0	Up	+$79	05-02 06:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$468	282	282	+0	Up	+$68	05-04 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	4	$452	545	133	+411	Down	+$64	05-02 00:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	5	$438	373	123	+250	Down	+$28	05-02 01:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	3	$436	10,238	238	+10,000	Down	+$36	05-02 05:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	4	$421	591	250	+341	Down	+$21	05-02 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	3	$412	334	217	+117	Down	+$89	05-02 18:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	4	$403	653	216	+437	Up	-$197	05-02 01:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 21:11:50	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0x31ed60…
08-13 23:45:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	15	27¢	$4	0x39ee85…
08-13 23:45:39	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	14¢	$2	0xe18902…
08-13 23:45:31	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	15	24¢	$4	0x879219…
08-13 23:45:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0xba8990…
08-13 23:45:16	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	42¢	$4	0x32f51b…
08-13 23:45:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	55	17¢	$9	0xa66223…
08-13 23:45:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	52¢	$21	0x68d03c…
08-13 17:52:10	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0x83f0f9…
08-13 17:52:04	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	15	47¢	$7	0xe21525…
08-13 17:51:57	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	31	23¢	$7	0xe2caad…
08-13 17:51:46	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0x59dd96…
08-13 17:51:33	mlb atl cws 2026 06 11 total 5pt5	Over	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0xebbcb3…
08-13 17:51:16	mlb atl cws 2026 06 11 total 8pt5	Over	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x5a8fba…
08-13 17:50:27	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0xce576b…
08-13 17:50:18	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	26	23¢	$6	0x6abb5d…
08-13 17:50:12	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0x91b7b4…
08-13 17:50:04	Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x049b45…
08-13 03:28:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0xb5f96f…
08-13 03:28:25	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	42	57¢	$24	0x2c991c…
08-10 06:19:45	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	16	67¢	$11	0x4d1e9e…
08-10 06:19:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	41	44¢	$18	0x44446a…
08-10 06:19:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	63¢	$23	0xde1ce4…
08-10 06:19:12	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	SELL	60	53¢	$32	0x9f9786…
08-06 22:40:29	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xc11242…
07-31 18:21:59	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x26559a…
07-31 15:45:54	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xb90c97…
07-31 02:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x6ce0c6…
07-30 10:28:30	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xa039cc…
07-30 10:19:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0x878ecf…
07-30 08:49:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x12ce7e…
07-30 08:13:42	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x8a1a20…
07-30 07:02:38	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x493c47…
07-30 06:43:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0x614507…
07-30 05:09:06	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x74caa9…
07-30 05:05:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0x1d3c47…
07-30 05:04:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x912dfd…
07-30 04:58:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xfe76a0…
07-30 04:53:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x976194…
07-30 04:51:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xfa75f3…
07-30 04:51:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x784182…
07-30 04:51:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x3fe478…
07-30 04:50:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xd155e8…
07-30 04:50:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf2dae8…
07-30 04:50:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xeb4ca9…
07-30 04:50:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x0ea76c…
07-30 04:40:59	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0xcc2a83…
07-30 01:58:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	75	7¢	$5	0x256e3e…
07-30 01:55:27	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	75	12¢	$9	0xe69f37…
07-30 01:53:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0x89f4d3…
07-30 01:53:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x0f20ed…
07-30 01:53:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x948370…
07-30 01:51:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x894338…
07-29 18:12:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xd149fc…
07-29 18:12:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xcc47ec…
07-29 18:10:09	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x514c24…
07-29 13:36:21	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x5eba89…
07-29 12:42:08	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x9deed4…
07-29 12:02:51	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x35f551…
07-29 11:59:09	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	0	57¢	$0	0x5771df…
07-29 11:54:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xe9768f…
07-29 11:10:50	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xfe207b…
07-29 10:06:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x7e9d50…
07-29 07:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	42	10¢	$4	0x1f4f11…
07-29 06:12:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x16de9b…
07-29 05:58:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xd5f1e5…
07-29 05:58:20	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x019ef3…
07-29 05:49:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x54aee3…
07-29 04:34:12	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0x39f9bd…
07-29 04:20:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xd08a4e…
07-29 02:49:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x4ae413…
07-29 01:49:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x98f90e…
07-29 01:49:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x7f1eec…
07-29 01:46:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x316008…
07-29 01:35:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x59f79c…
07-29 01:35:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x485f9c…
07-29 01:33:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xcdea90…
07-29 01:23:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x8b64be…
07-29 01:18:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x59078a…
07-29 01:17:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x23d44d…
07-29 01:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xe6a3ee…
07-29 01:05:59	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x429fdc…
07-29 01:04:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0xb11f1f…
07-29 01:03:29	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x1a9bb7…
07-29 01:02:53	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xa5c054…
07-29 00:58:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xe539ba…
07-29 00:48:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	18	7¢	$1	0x24df6c…
07-29 00:48:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xa7e399…
07-29 00:48:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x920b1e…
07-29 00:48:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x873f5c…
07-29 00:48:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x226a6d…
07-29 00:47:38	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xbe3bfd…
07-29 00:47:38	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xaef021…
07-29 00:47:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x3d768f…
07-29 00:47:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	75	2¢	$2	0xf149e4…
07-29 00:46:41	Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-07-28?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x9bdeb7…
07-29 00:46:38	Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-07-28?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x6637ba…
07-28 23:57:22	Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-07-28?	Yes	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0xf5dc48…
07-28 15:36:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xa78d96…
07-28 14:21:43	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x137b49…