Realized P&L
+$13.0K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.59K
Hit rate
66.0%
Resolved
212
Trades
4,805
lifetime
Volume
$61.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$13
Open exposure
$1.58K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-17
last 10-25 20:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 64 days
Categories
Other
56% 14% +$10,327
Politics
30% 31% +$1,093
Tech
13% 26% +$1,729
Sports
0% 0% -$148
Crypto
0% 0% -$21
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
50 active days in 12wk • peak 164 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +3,931 $797 11¢ $413 -$384 10-11 15:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +1,100 $166 18¢ $204 +$38 06-22 21:32
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? Yes +4,066 $281 4¢ $157 -$124 10-14 01:36
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +3,781 $345 4¢ $153 -$191 09-17 16:23
ebola pandemic in 2026 Yes +3,972 $147 3¢ $103 -$44 10-20 17:33
New pandemic in 2026? Yes +2,224 $270 4¢ $79 -$191 10-04 21:57
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes +2,201 $78 3¢ $59 -$19 09-17 22:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +50 -$83 88¢ $44 +$127 09-11 23:34
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes +950 $81 4¢ $40 -$41 09-05 00:29
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? Yes +450 $24 8¢ $38 +$14 10-01 00:07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +530 $52 6¢ $29 -$23 09-27 02:42
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes +224 $97 12¢ $28 -$69 05-23 04:38
Plague pandemic in 2026? Yes +1,229 $28 2¢ $24 -$4 10-14 02:16
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +9,201 $79 0¢ $23 -$56 09-17 07:56
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes +1,061 $181 2¢ $22 -$159 06-02 22:11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +200 $34 8¢ $17 -$17 10-25 20:07
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Yes +400 $40 4¢ $17 -$23 05-27 22:09
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128 No +250 $27 6¢ $16 -$11 09-19 00:11
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +10,548 $48 0¢ $16 -$33 09-22 13:57
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes +1,100 $68 1¢ $15 -$53 09-16 19:21
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? No +500 $45 3¢ $15 -$30 10-25 20:06
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +100 $14 13¢ $13 -$1 09-30 15:44
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +200 $46 4¢ $9 -$37 05-18 01:01
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes +70 $11 12¢ $9 -$2 05-18 06:50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026? Yes +1,500 $59 1¢ $8 -$51 09-30 18:07
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes +400 $28 2¢ $8 -$20 05-18 00:59
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +7,000 $34 0¢ $7 -$27 09-15 23:53
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +4,479 $155 0¢ $7 -$149 09-16 19:22
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? No +50 $14 12¢ $6 -$9 09-19 00:04
situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992 Yes +100 $11 5¢ $5 -$6 08-01 10:34