Realized P&L (24h)
—
Unrealized P&L
+$25.7K
Hit rate
—
Resolved (24h)
0
Trades (24h)
23
8,797 lifetime
Volume (24h)
$14.5K
$1.38M lifetime
Avg / trade
$157
Open exposure
$119.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-27
last 11-14 13:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 154 days
Categories
Other
69% 61% +$98,651
Politics
29% 74% +$20,253
Tech
1% 50% +$606
Crypto
0% 70% +$311
Sports
0% 100% +$61
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 109 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +35,982 $30,154 92¢ $32.9K +$2,769 11-12 20:16
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +29,003 $23,253 96¢ $27.7K +$4,445 11-09 11:05
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 13? Yes +18,085 $17,799 100¢ $18.0K +$241 11-13 23:17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +5,859 $4,068 98¢ $5.8K +$1,701 11-13 16:21
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +4,500 $3,900 97¢ $4.4K +$478 09-08 21:31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +4,297 -$3,318 68¢ $2.9K +$6,262 11-12 13:18
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,721 $1,096 51¢ $2.4K +$1,312 10-06 19:23
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? Yes +7,499 $2,244 32¢ $2.4K +$155 10-27 11:40
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No +4,170 $354 56¢ $2.4K +$2,002 11-11 08:31
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +4,158 $2,162 51¢ $2.1K -$41 11-07 23:15
Israeli airspace closed by November 30, 2026? No +1,949 $1,611 92¢ $1.8K +$172 11-05 19:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +1,745 $1,431 92¢ $1.6K +$166 11-09 04:38
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,004 $824 34¢ $1.4K +$537 10-05 01:30
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +1,785 $1,249 74¢ $1.3K +$71 11-09 11:18
Will Jensen Huang's resignation or removal be announced and Nvidia's market cap be above $4T at the end of 2026? No +2,550 $1,006 48¢ $1.2K +$230 11-13 06:21
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +1,104 $793 97¢ $1.1K +$280 09-12 20:37
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +1,017 $481 84¢ $860 +$379 10-07 01:56
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No +1,100 -$20 76¢ $830 +$850 11-06 02:57
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,741 $1,682 22¢ $810 -$872 11-09 22:12
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,000 $586 80¢ $795 +$209 11-11 12:18
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797 No +3,727 $48 21¢ $790 +$743 11-08 16:00
Kimberly Powell announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? No +1,436 $594 51¢ $732 +$138 11-14 13:49
Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027? No +855 $597 86¢ $731 +$134 10-25 13:17
will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 No +753 $580 94¢ $712 +$132 07-23 00:03
Kimberly Powell announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026? No +1,007 $594 70¢ $700 +$106 11-13 05:00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 15, 2026? Yes +5,777 $1,048 12¢ $693 -$355 11-14 00:23
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +685 -$39 98¢ $673 +$712 11-09 15:01
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +1,000 -$1,762 64¢ $637 +$2,399 11-04 01:47
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? No +664 $387 92¢ $611 +$224 11-13 19:03
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -600 -$703 98¢ $-586 +$116 08-14 02:27