Realized P&L (7d)
+$1.08K
Unrealized P&L
+$4.29K
Hit rate
95.6%
Resolved (7d)
11
Trades (7d)
131
8,173 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$37.3K
$1.17M lifetime
Avg / trade
$144
Open exposure
$100.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-27
last 10-29 17:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 141 days
Categories
Other
76% 63% +$101,980
Politics
23% 74% +$15,518
Tech
1% 60% +$658
Crypto
0% 70% +$311
Sports
0% 100% +$61
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +30,982 $25,654 80¢ $24.9K -$714 10-29 17:54
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +28,003 $23,043 84¢ $23.7K +$619 10-27 11:01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +8,805 $7,899 98¢ $8.6K +$739 10-05 04:15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? Yes +5,028 $4,762 100¢ $5.0K +$241 10-28 01:35
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +4,500 $3,900 94¢ $4.2K +$341 09-08 21:31
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +13,000 $3,140 31¢ $4.1K +$942 10-28 11:17
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +7,000 $4,400 57¢ $4.0K -$375 10-27 22:36
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +10,065 $3,981 40¢ $4.0K -$6 10-26 08:53
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? Yes +7,499 $2,244 37¢ $2.8K +$530 10-27 11:40
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +2,445 $2,356 100¢ $2.4K +$77 10-24 14:07
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,721 $1,096 48¢ $2.2K +$1,147 10-06 19:23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +1,934 $1,553 96¢ $1.9K +$313 10-21 21:47
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,004 $824 37¢ $1.5K +$657 10-05 01:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +2,355 $1,298 57¢ $1.4K +$56 10-26 07:55
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +3,709 $1,623 32¢ $1.2K -$417 10-27 01:04
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +1,104 $793 94¢ $1.0K +$248 09-12 20:37
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31 Yes +8,566 $1,363 10¢ $857 -$506 09-14 07:24
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +1,017 $481 74¢ $748 +$267 10-07 01:56
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No +4,868 $842 15¢ $730 -$112 10-29 15:44
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169 No +1,110 $492 63¢ $699 +$207 08-23 16:15
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,000 $470 69¢ $686 +$216 10-27 22:03
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No +2,200 $728 28¢ $616 -$112 08-24 00:01
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -600 -$703 94¢ $-567 +$136 08-14 02:27
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +500 $390 92¢ $462 +$72 05-11 21:38
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +848 $513 48¢ $407 -$106 10-20 14:30
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +500 $320 68¢ $338 +$18 10-08 01:03
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +300 $165 99¢ $296 +$131 10-10 01:44
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,000 $310 26¢ $255 -$55 10-07 12:28
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? No +927 $163 20¢ $184 +$21 10-29 21:02
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797 No +4,709 $474 4¢ $181 -$293 10-22 19:19