Realized P&L (90d)
+$32.3K
Unrealized P&L
+$4.95K
Hit rate
89.8%
Resolved (90d)
151
Trades (90d)
1,965
8,120 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$282.9K
$1.16M lifetime
Avg / trade
$143
Open exposure
$96.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-27
last 10-31 00:04
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 142 days
Categories
Other
76% 63% +$101,980
Politics
23% 74% +$15,797
Tech
1% 60% +$658
Crypto
0% 70% +$311
Sports
0% 100% +$61
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +31,016 $25,514 83¢ $25.7K +$230 10-30 23:46
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +30,982 $25,654 82¢ $25.6K -$94 10-29 17:54
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +8,683 $7,779 98¢ $8.5K +$739 10-30 15:26
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +4,500 $3,900 97¢ $4.3K +$447 09-08 21:31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +10,065 $3,981 43¢ $4.3K +$301 10-26 08:53
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +10,000 $2,180 33¢ $3.3K +$1,150 10-30 02:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +5,000 $3,180 57¢ $2.9K -$330 10-30 16:15
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? Yes +7,499 $2,244 36¢ $2.7K +$493 10-27 11:40
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +2,445 $2,356 100¢ $2.4K +$82 10-24 14:07
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,721 $1,096 42¢ $2.0K +$911 10-06 19:23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +2,355 $1,298 65¢ $1.5K +$233 10-26 07:55
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,004 $824 36¢ $1.5K +$637 10-05 01:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +3,709 $1,623 36¢ $1.4K -$269 10-27 01:04
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +1,104 $793 95¢ $1.1K +$259 09-12 20:37
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? No +1,000 $960 98¢ $985 +$25 10-30 10:58
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 Yes +8,566 $1,363 10¢ $857 -$506 09-14 07:24
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +1,000 $790 78¢ $785 -$5 10-30 15:26
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +1,017 $481 72¢ $738 +$257 10-07 01:56
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No +1,110 $492 64¢ $716 +$224 08-23 16:15
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No +4,868 $842 15¢ $706 -$136 10-29 15:44
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,000 $470 67¢ $667 +$197 10-27 22:03
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No +2,200 $728 30¢ $649 -$79 08-24 00:01
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -600 -$703 94¢ $-567 +$136 08-14 02:27
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +500 $390 94¢ $468 +$78 05-11 21:38
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +848 $513 52¢ $437 -$77 10-20 14:30
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +500 $320 70¢ $352 +$32 10-08 01:03
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +300 $165 99¢ $298 +$133 10-10 01:44
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797 No +4,709 $474 6¢ $264 -$210 10-22 19:19
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? No +927 $163 27¢ $252 +$89 10-29 21:02
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +781 $240 30¢ $238 -$2 10-31 00:04