Realized P&L
+$118.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$5.02K
Hit rate
89.5%
Resolved
479
Trades
8,185
lifetime
Volume
$1.18M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$144
Open exposure
$100.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-27
last 10-30 02:30
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 141 days
Categories
Other
76% 63% +$101,980
Politics
23% 74% +$15,518
Tech
1% 60% +$658
Crypto
0% 70% +$311
Sports
0% 100% +$61
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +30,982 $25,654 82¢ $25.4K -$249 10-29 17:54
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +29,134 $23,971 84¢ $24.3K +$356 10-30 01:55
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +8,805 $7,899 98¢ $8.6K +$739 10-05 04:15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? Yes +5,028 $4,762 100¢ $5.0K +$267 10-28 01:35
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +4,500 $3,900 94¢ $4.2K +$325 09-08 21:31
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +7,000 $4,400 58¢ $4.1K -$305 10-27 22:36
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 Yes +10,065 $3,981 40¢ $4.0K +$35 10-26 08:53
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +10,000 $2,180 33¢ $3.3K +$1,125 10-30 02:30
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? Yes +7,499 $2,244 37¢ $2.8K +$530 10-27 11:40
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +2,445 $2,356 100¢ $2.4K +$77 10-24 14:07
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +1,934 $1,553 96¢ $1.9K +$303 10-21 21:47
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,721 $1,096 38¢ $1.8K +$675 10-06 19:23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +2,355 $1,298 66¢ $1.5K +$245 10-26 07:55
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,004 $824 36¢ $1.4K +$617 10-05 01:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +3,709 $1,623 36¢ $1.3K -$306 10-27 01:04
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +1,104 $793 95¢ $1.0K +$254 09-12 20:37
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No +4,868 $842 22¢ $1.0K +$205 10-29 15:44
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31 Yes +8,566 $1,363 10¢ $857 -$506 09-14 07:24
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +1,017 $481 73¢ $743 +$262 10-07 01:56
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169 No +1,110 $492 64¢ $705 +$213 08-23 16:15
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No +2,200 $728 30¢ $671 -$57 08-24 00:01
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,000 $470 67¢ $670 +$200 10-27 22:03
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -600 -$703 94¢ $-567 +$136 08-14 02:27
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +500 $390 94¢ $468 +$78 05-11 21:38
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +848 $513 48¢ $411 -$102 10-20 14:30
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +500 $320 68¢ $342 +$22 10-08 01:03
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +300 $165 99¢ $297 +$132 10-10 01:44
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,000 $310 29¢ $285 -$25 10-07 12:28
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? No +927 $163 24¢ $226 +$63 10-29 21:02
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797 No +4,709 $474 4¢ $186 -$288 10-22 19:19