Realized P&L
+$118.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$5.60K
Hit rate
89.4%
Resolved
484
Trades
8,235
lifetime
Volume
$1.19M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$145
Open exposure
$98.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-27
last 10-31 23:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 143 days
Categories
Other
76% 63% +$102,083
Politics
23% 74% +$15,622
Tech
1% 50% +$606
Crypto
0% 70% +$311
Sports
0% 100% +$61
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +32,003 $26,313 84¢ $26.7K +$409 10-31 15:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +30,982 $25,654 82¢ $25.6K -$94 10-29 17:54
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +8,134 $7,238 98¢ $8.0K +$745 10-31 17:49
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +4,500 $3,900 96¢ $4.3K +$433 09-08 21:31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +10,065 $3,981 42¢ $4.3K +$276 10-26 08:53
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +10,000 $2,180 35¢ $3.5K +$1,275 10-30 02:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +5,000 $3,180 58¢ $2.9K -$255 10-30 16:15
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? Yes +7,499 $2,244 38¢ $2.8K +$568 10-27 11:40
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +2,445 $2,356 100¢ $2.4K +$82 10-24 14:07
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,721 $1,096 46¢ $2.1K +$1,053 10-06 19:23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +2,355 $1,298 64¢ $1.5K +$221 10-26 07:55
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,004 $824 36¢ $1.5K +$637 10-05 01:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +3,709 $1,623 39¢ $1.4K -$176 10-27 01:04
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? No +1,321 $1,272 100¢ $1.3K +$49 10-31 15:37
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +1,104 $793 95¢ $1.1K +$260 09-12 20:37
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No +4,868 $842 18¢ $876 +$34 10-29 15:44
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +1,000 $790 80¢ $795 +$5 10-30 15:26
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +1,017 $481 74¢ $758 +$277 10-07 01:56
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31 Yes +8,566 $1,363 8¢ $728 -$634 09-14 07:24
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +1,000 $675 72¢ $715 +$40 10-31 10:18
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +1,000 $700 72¢ $715 +$15 10-31 11:16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +1,000 $670 70¢ $695 +$25 10-31 07:56
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No +2,200 $728 30¢ $671 -$57 08-24 00:01
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,000 $470 65¢ $655 +$185 10-27 22:03
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -600 -$703 94¢ $-567 +$136 08-14 02:27
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +500 $390 94¢ $472 +$82 05-11 21:38
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +848 $513 53¢ $450 -$64 10-20 14:30
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797 No +4,709 $474 8¢ $396 -$78 10-22 19:19
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +500 $310 65¢ $325 +$15 10-31 23:45
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +300 $165 100¢ $300 +$135 10-10 01:44