Realized P&L
+$117.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$6.00K
Hit rate
89.2%
Resolved
491
Trades
8,240
lifetime
Volume
$1.19M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$145
Open exposure
$96.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-27
last 11-01 11:27
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 144 days
Categories
Other
76% 62% +$98,652
Politics
23% 74% +$18,043
Tech
1% 50% +$606
Crypto
0% 70% +$311
Sports
0% 100% +$61
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +32,003 $26,313 84¢ $26.7K +$409 10-31 15:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +30,982 $25,654 82¢ $25.6K -$94 10-29 17:54
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +7,977 $7,084 98¢ $7.8K +$745 11-01 11:27
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +4,500 $3,900 96¢ $4.3K +$420 09-08 21:31
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +10,000 $2,180 36¢ $3.6K +$1,465 10-30 02:30
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 Yes +8,565 $3,321 42¢ $3.6K +$255 11-01 00:38
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +5,000 $3,180 62¢ $3.1K -$105 10-30 16:15
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? Yes +7,499 $2,244 38¢ $2.8K +$568 10-27 11:40
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +2,445 $2,356 100¢ $2.4K +$82 10-24 14:07
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,721 $1,096 46¢ $2.1K +$1,053 10-06 19:23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +2,355 $1,298 68¢ $1.6K +$292 10-26 07:55
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +4,004 $824 36¢ $1.4K +$617 10-05 01:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +3,709 $1,623 36¢ $1.4K -$269 10-27 01:04
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +1,104 $793 95¢ $1.1K +$260 09-12 20:37
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No +4,868 $842 18¢ $876 +$34 10-29 15:44
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +1,000 $790 80¢ $795 +$5 10-30 15:26
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31 Yes +8,566 $1,363 9¢ $771 -$592 09-14 07:24
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No +2,200 $728 34¢ $748 +$20 08-24 00:01
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +1,017 $481 73¢ $743 +$262 10-07 01:56
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +1,000 $675 72¢ $725 +$50 10-31 10:18
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +1,000 $700 72¢ $715 +$15 10-31 11:16
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,000 $470 64¢ $636 +$166 10-27 22:03
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -600 -$703 96¢ $-573 +$130 08-14 02:27
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797 No +4,709 $474 10¢ $478 +$4 10-22 19:19
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +500 $390 95¢ $475 +$85 05-11 21:38
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +848 $513 55¢ $467 -$47 10-20 14:30
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +500 $310 64¢ $320 +$10 10-31 23:45
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? No +927 $163 28¢ $259 +$96 10-29 21:02
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +781 $240 26¢ $199 -$41 10-31 00:04
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? No +236 $50 65¢ $154 +$104 09-14 13:04