Realized P&L (7d)
-$821
Unrealized P&L
-$366
Hit rate
4.4%
Resolved (7d)
12
Trades (7d)
82
5,395 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$973
$205.1K lifetime
Avg / trade
$38
Open exposure
$2.01K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-10
last 10-29 21:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 246 days
Categories
Politics
70% 42% +$9,373
Other
24% 37% +$1,553
Crypto
4% 51% -$119
Sports
1% 13% +$286
Tech
0% 0% -$4
Pop-Culture
0% 50% -$15
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +1,503 $217 15¢ $223 +$6 08-16 15:11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +576 $43 30¢ $170 +$127 10-28 22:00
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +1,000 $142 14¢ $140 -$2 09-25 15:10
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +600 $152 20¢ $117 -$35 09-26 20:19
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +260 $19 44¢ $113 +$94 10-27 19:59
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes +700 $111 16¢ $108 -$2 08-08 07:52
iran coup attempt by december 31 Yes +794 $50 12¢ $99 +$49 09-04 15:04
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +1,900 $215 5¢ $95 -$121 10-29 22:08
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No +1,266 $101 7¢ $88 -$13 09-25 11:24
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes +651 $178 12¢ $75 -$103 09-02 17:04
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +733 $37 10¢ $71 +$35 09-11 10:09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +850 $146 8¢ $68 -$78 10-21 06:02
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +455 $71 13¢ $61 -$9 09-28 21:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? No +537 $125 11¢ $59 -$66 10-23 22:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? Yes +600 $42 10¢ $57 +$15 09-05 11:30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +1,104 $99 5¢ $54 -$46 07-31 21:16
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes +400 $48 12¢ $48 +$0 07-30 18:04
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes +600 $54 7¢ $42 -$12 09-09 20:09
Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026? Yes +505 $32 8¢ $38 +$6 10-29 09:07
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? Yes +841 $89 4¢ $38 -$51 10-16 06:54
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +500 $38 6¢ $32 -$6 08-02 06:32
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? No +50 $14 62¢ $31 +$17 08-08 06:26
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +546 $38 6¢ $30 -$8 09-17 18:27
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? Yes +400 $52 8¢ $30 -$22 10-25 09:57
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +113 $18 26¢ $30 +$12 10-18 02:26
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Yes +590 $39 4¢ $27 -$13 09-23 19:40
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? Yes +305 $22 6¢ $20 -$3 10-10 20:42
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +400 $20 4¢ $18 -$2 10-17 20:07
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871 Yes +250 $40 6¢ $14 -$26 08-20 10:52
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? Yes +1,000 $120 1¢ $10 -$110 10-05 19:31