Realized P&L (90d)
+$1.74K
Unrealized P&L
-$447
Hit rate
70.9%
Resolved (90d)
187
Trades (90d)
960
5,354 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$33.9K
$202.8K lifetime
Avg / trade
$38
Open exposure
$1.72K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-10
last 10-30 05:18
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 246 days
Categories
Politics
70% 42% +$9,373
Other
24% 37% +$1,553
Crypto
4% 51% -$119
Sports
1% 13% +$286
Tech
0% 0% -$4
Pop-Culture
0% 50% -$15
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +1,503 $217 14¢ $206 -$11 08-16 15:11
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +1,000 $142 15¢ $150 +$8 09-25 15:10
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +600 $152 18¢ $111 -$41 09-26 20:19
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +260 $19 40¢ $105 +$86 10-27 19:59
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +850 $146 12¢ $100 -$45 10-21 06:02
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No +1,266 $101 8¢ $96 -$6 09-25 11:24
iran coup attempt by december 31 Yes +794 $50 12¢ $95 +$45 09-04 15:04
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +1,900 $215 4¢ $85 -$130 10-29 22:08
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes +651 $178 12¢ $75 -$103 09-02 17:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? Yes +600 $42 10¢ $57 +$15 09-05 11:30
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +627 $47 9¢ $56 +$9 10-30 05:18
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +733 $37 7¢ $53 +$16 09-11 10:09
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes +700 $111 8¢ $52 -$58 08-08 07:52
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes +400 $48 12¢ $48 +$0 07-30 18:04
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes +600 $54 8¢ $45 -$9 09-09 20:09
Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026? Yes +505 $32 9¢ $43 +$11 10-29 09:07
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +1,104 $99 4¢ $39 -$60 07-31 21:16
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +113 $18 31¢ $35 +$17 10-18 02:26
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +455 $71 7¢ $34 -$37 09-28 21:59
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? No +50 $14 64¢ $32 +$18 08-08 06:26
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? Yes +400 $52 8¢ $30 -$22 10-25 09:57
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +500 $38 6¢ $28 -$10 08-02 06:32
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Yes +590 $39 5¢ $27 -$12 09-23 19:40
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +546 $38 4¢ $25 -$14 09-17 18:27
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? Yes +841 $89 2¢ $21 -$68 10-16 06:54
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +400 $20 4¢ $18 -$2 10-17 20:07
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? Yes +305 $22 6¢ $17 -$5 10-10 20:42
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871 Yes +250 $40 6¢ $14 -$26 08-20 10:52
us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236 Yes +250 $22 4¢ $9 -$13 08-03 18:15
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Yes +193 $8 4¢ $9 +$0 10-19 18:10