Trusting-Down — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$357

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

97.7%

Resolved

6,671

Trades

31,231

lifetime

Volume

$333.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$34

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-27 08:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 205 days

Categories

Other

84% 97% +$222

Crypto

13% 89% -$8

Politics

3% 72% -$583

Tech

0% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 299 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	-40	-$32	64¢	$-26	+$6	09-05 07:53
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	-21	-$3	34¢	$-7	-$4	08-26 20:11
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	-40	-$5	2¢	$-1	+$4	08-26 20:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	28	$2.0K	1,030	1,012	+18	No	+$45	03-25 21:25
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 11?	3	$1.9K	1,015	861	+154	No	+$0	10-11 01:57
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	13	$1.8K	900	900	+0	No	+$28	02-24 11:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	20	$1.4K	1,010	1,010	+0	Yes	+$73	04-10 17:32
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on August 29?	3	$1.3K	897	392	+504	No	+$1	08-29 09:24
highest temperature in austin on april 15 2026 68 69f	9	$1.1K	733	417	+317	No	+$0	04-14 20:41
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	21	$935	500	450	+50	No	+$1	05-23 11:10
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on May 10?	7	$889	712	178	+534	No	+$1	05-09 21:48
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 14?	65	$871	872	0	+872	No	+$2	05-14 07:11
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 25?	99	$847	848	0	+848	No	+$1	05-25 19:08
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 781	22	$746	396	396	+0	No	+$0	02-09 15:12
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on May 12?	8	$739	740	0	+740	No	+$1	05-12 12:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	8	$604	615	0	+615	Yes	-$604	02-28 19:20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 16?	53	$603	304	304	+0	No	+$3	05-16 22:02
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 13?	3	$595	595	0	+595	No	+$1	05-13 08:23
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?	48	$582	584	0	+584	No	+$2	05-14 20:14
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 16?	12	$576	583	0	+583	No	+$7	05-16 08:46
bitcoin up or down on january 12	117	$568	1,122	0	+1,122	Up	-$7	01-12 15:52
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16?	51	$517	518	0	+518	No	+$1	05-16 21:18
highest temperature in hong kong on april 22 2026 21corbelow	3	$509	510	0	+510	No	+$1	04-22 08:29
elon musk of tweets february 26 february 28 215 239	5	$509	510	0	+510	No	+$1	02-27 21:25
will the price of solana be between 140 150 on january 8	5	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	01-08 17:00
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on May 11?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	05-11 21:41
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on May 4?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	05-04 14:12
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 55°F or below on May 10?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	05-09 19:36
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	05-06 18:51
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 11?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	05-11 21:41
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 420 439	4	$498	500	0	+500	No	+$2	02-24 09:28
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 16?	41	$497	498	0	+498	No	+$1	05-16 09:14
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on May 15?	21	$486	487	0	+487	No	+$1	05-15 10:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 08:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x19cd28…
10-27 07:53:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x57a483…
10-27 07:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xec353e…
10-27 07:30:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x8def91…
10-27 07:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x6e87a2…
10-27 07:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x8d9d07…
10-27 07:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x39ac91…
10-26 14:43:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x4ad3fd…
10-26 14:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xdf9d2f…
10-26 14:14:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xf4f606…
10-26 12:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x450068…
10-26 12:54:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe0d7e0…
10-26 12:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4c3d35…
10-26 11:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xbd9979…
10-26 11:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xba7c71…
10-26 10:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x36cd4c…
10-26 09:46:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0x366eb0…
10-26 09:45:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x108091…
10-26 09:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xc08518…
10-26 09:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xdd5db5…
10-26 09:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4f8d66…
10-26 09:16:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x920573…
10-26 09:12:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-26 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x81791d…
10-26 08:59:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-26 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x2f6f93…
10-26 08:22:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xad843f…
10-26 07:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd70e32…
10-26 04:29:30	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x6cfcd4…
10-26 00:24:11	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 13°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x019031…
10-25 22:28:12	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x65b644…
10-25 21:11:21	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 26?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x38a862…
10-25 21:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 26?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x26a839…
10-25 20:36:17	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3c3e20…
10-25 20:36:15	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x6f37ee…
10-25 20:36:14	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfe6d1e…
10-25 20:30:24	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on October 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4e4d95…
10-25 20:22:33	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x44b6f2…
10-25 20:22:32	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1af855…
10-25 20:22:30	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe7bdc1…
10-25 20:22:08	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x7fa356…
10-25 20:22:02	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5051d8…
10-25 20:14:39	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4831f7…
10-25 20:14:39	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 25?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x476b71…
10-25 20:14:35	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5a0005…
10-25 20:13:08	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x96a546…
10-25 20:13:08	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x79a868…
10-25 20:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5b710e…
10-25 20:12:57	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x092a3a…
10-25 20:12:56	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd8c758…
10-25 20:04:17	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xeaeda4…
10-25 20:04:17	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x923076…
10-25 20:04:15	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x6ef8c4…
10-25 20:04:14	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5742ec…
10-25 19:54:05	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xcf1032…
10-25 19:54:05	Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc9b347…
10-25 19:40:42	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on October 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3361b1…
10-25 19:40:35	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x68f9f5…
10-25 19:40:33	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4ec0b8…
10-25 19:12:29	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf0f328…
10-25 19:12:29	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9c3e3d…
10-25 19:12:26	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x470993…
10-25 19:12:18	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xba029f…
10-25 19:12:17	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x187d41…
10-25 19:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe660e9…
10-25 14:21:09	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe56473…
10-25 14:18:54	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x33e392…
10-25 10:36:11	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1e588c…
10-25 10:14:23	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x99c825…
10-25 09:53:15	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x805691…
10-25 09:53:14	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1994ca…
10-25 09:53:12	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xcab4f2…
10-25 09:53:11	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9d57a3…
10-25 09:53:09	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5592ed…
10-25 09:53:08	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xaa1c07…
10-25 09:34:26	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe89400…
10-25 09:34:24	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3f767a…
10-25 09:33:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x79e3b9…
10-25 09:33:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4381c6…
10-25 09:32:30	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x926b32…
10-25 09:32:29	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb81996…
10-25 09:32:18	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf21c2e…
10-25 09:32:17	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb08107…
10-25 09:32:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x92f9ea…
10-25 09:31:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x254964…
10-25 09:31:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8a89c6…
10-25 08:25:15	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8607b3…
10-25 08:10:41	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x68edad…
10-25 07:22:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	62¢	$4	0xb834ca…
10-25 07:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x2cd6a9…
10-25 07:11:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xd60d21…
10-25 06:59:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa8dd28…
10-25 06:57:20	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x86c964…
10-25 06:41:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x353c3a…
10-25 06:39:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa4714f…
10-25 06:34:39	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C or higher on October 25?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa111a5…
10-25 06:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xdcc593…
10-25 06:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc9409d…
10-25 06:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x21066f…
10-25 06:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x9f2d99…
10-25 05:59:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xae779e…
10-25 05:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x0261a7…