Ornery-Normal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

89.4%

Resolved

Trades

152

lifetime

Volume

$1.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$94

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 10-19 12:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Other

48% 82% -$20

Politics

37% 87% +$11

Sports

7% 100% +$36

Crypto

6% 88% -$7

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	+32	$30	96¢	$31	+$1	10-19 12:43
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-11	-$10	98¢	$-11	-$1	06-05 20:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+11	$10	99¢	$11	+$1	09-04 09:47
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	+11	$10	91¢	$10	+$0	09-04 09:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	+11	$10	92¢	$10	+$0	09-21 20:52
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	-10	-$10	99¢	$-10	$0	05-18 07:41
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+10	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	09-10 09:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	5	$88	88	0	+88	No	+$0	05-19 15:55
Spurs vs. Thunder	1	$80	116	0	+116	Thunder	+$36	05-20 17:18
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$39	42	0	+42	No	+$2	03-25 18:56
will the us next strike iran on january 21 2026 et 774	2	$34	17	17	+0	No	+$0	01-24 07:41
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	1	$30	32	0	+32	open	—	10-19 12:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$26	21	15	+6	No	+$2	05-29 16:35
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	3	$25	10	15	-5	No	+$0	06-05 20:04
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	3	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	03-25 18:53
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$21	15	15	+0	Yes	+$1	06-05 20:04
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	3	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-05 20:04
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	01-24 07:40
US strike on Cuba by January 31?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	02-01 08:24
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	01-29 10:08
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	03-23 13:51
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	01-24 19:47
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	03-16 17:13
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$19	13	13	+0	No	-$1	03-23 11:14
gc settle above 5100 jan 2026	2	$18	19	0	+19	No	-$18	01-29 18:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$15	16	0	+16	No	+$1	04-20 17:07
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	2	$15	7	7	+0	No	+$0	01-29 18:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	2	$12	8	8	+0	No	+$2	06-05 20:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$11	8	8	+0	No	+$1	06-05 20:05
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29?	2	$11	6	6	+0	Yes	+$1	05-29 20:10
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$11	6	6	+0	Yes	+$1	04-13 08:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	05-29 16:50
Valencia vs. Gran Canaria	2	$11	6	6	+0	Valencia	+$1	05-29 20:10
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	1	$11	0	11	-11	No	$0	06-05 20:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-29 17:15
Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-05-29?	2	$11	6	6	+0	Yes	+$1	05-29 20:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	05-29 17:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 12:43:00	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x1c3129…
09-21 20:52:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x9c68fe…
09-10 09:26:24	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x8e0474…
09-04 10:14:16	Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xe4853b…
09-04 09:55:16	Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xf35a87…
09-04 09:48:09	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xe10e24…
09-04 09:47:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x8734f6…
09-04 09:46:45	Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x094aa0…
06-05 20:07:03	European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xcf1c4d…
06-05 20:07:00	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0xa8aef2…
06-05 20:06:54	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x8e0e7e…
06-05 20:06:49	NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x330e53…
06-05 20:06:42	Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb1979b…
06-05 20:06:27	SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xcc22bb…
06-05 20:06:03	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4fa7af…
06-05 20:05:55	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x154fa5…
06-05 20:05:48	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xe87e76…
06-05 20:05:34	Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x6011bd…
06-05 20:05:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x57d37b…
06-05 20:05:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	8	82¢	$6	0x00711f…
06-05 20:04:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x43c897…
06-05 20:04:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	15	70¢	$11	0xfddc15…
06-05 20:04:30	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x13c801…
06-01 14:08:28	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x7977df…
06-01 13:01:25	Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0b12a7…
06-01 13:00:57	Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xcfdf97…
06-01 12:57:36	European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9b880e…
06-01 12:31:57	NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbc610f…
06-01 12:28:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xcb61a8…
06-01 05:51:28	Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8aa640…
05-30 07:17:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x50e4c2…
05-30 07:16:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x8750ae…
05-30 07:15:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xce6c20…
05-30 06:51:36	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x27093a…
05-29 20:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0daca3…
05-29 20:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5a80f8…
05-29 20:20:19	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0046ad…
05-29 20:19:29	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8646f0…
05-29 20:19:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe86441…
05-29 20:18:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x80f350…
05-29 20:17:40	Will Brumbies win?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x375418…
05-29 20:17:21	T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: China vs Thailand	Thailand	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x1765f0…
05-29 20:16:39	Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev	Alexander Zverev	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x63f7ce…
05-29 20:11:19	Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8d0ccc…
05-29 20:10:56	Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-05-29?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xda8a30…
05-29 20:10:30	Valencia vs. Gran Canaria	Valencia	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x188dfd…
05-29 20:10:16	Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x8a4634…
05-29 18:00:32	Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2c299d…
05-29 17:37:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x57878a…
05-29 17:35:44	Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-05-29?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xe97c33…
05-29 17:33:26	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6235c8…
05-29 17:32:58	SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xda2d7f…
05-29 17:32:39	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf72b76…
05-29 17:32:28	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xfc227f…
05-29 17:32:19	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xfd7fbb…
05-29 17:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb20108…
05-29 17:29:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4fe1b4…
05-29 17:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x36eb4e…
05-29 17:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x76462f…
05-29 17:21:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x35333a…
05-29 17:19:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x1ff976…
05-29 17:15:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xfbddbe…
05-29 17:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x62fab6…
05-29 17:08:37	Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x7b76fd…
05-29 17:08:21	Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6ae50b…
05-29 17:07:53	Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xc20326…
05-29 17:07:30	Valencia vs. Gran Canaria	Valencia	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x83d14e…
05-29 17:01:47	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x501c1d…
05-29 17:01:16	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe2c1f4…
05-29 16:55:47	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf18c32…
05-29 16:55:08	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5f5e2a…
05-29 16:53:34	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xc15cc4…
05-29 16:51:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x2cb781…
05-29 16:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x2fae08…
05-29 16:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x5292ef…
05-29 16:46:55	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xc5b154…
05-29 16:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb2db6b…
05-29 16:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x016178…
05-29 16:39:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xa7de70…
05-29 16:39:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x09570a…
05-29 16:37:28	Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc545e7…
05-29 16:37:07	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfeb598…
05-29 16:35:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x12a40d…
05-26 13:34:31	Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd0492b…
05-20 17:18:43	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	116	69¢	$80	0x0562c7…
05-19 15:55:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x481abd…
05-18 07:42:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x69dafa…
05-18 07:41:51	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xe51d54…
05-16 20:19:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xcdf5ae…
05-16 19:53:40	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	8¢	$4	0x0b6bf8…
05-16 19:53:24	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	6¢	$4	0x6cbfa1…
05-16 19:48:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x820258…
05-16 19:42:02	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	6¢	$5	0x8c71c6…
05-16 19:38:44	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x9eb72e…
05-16 19:35:51	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x60b4f1…
05-16 19:30:32	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	9¢	$5	0xa32e94…
05-15 12:39:57	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9cd8e6…
05-15 12:08:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6dd0a9…
05-14 12:58:15	Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xe63c27…
05-06 08:58:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	75¢	$11	0x822312…