Realized P&L
-$1.13K
Unrealized P&L
-$739
Hit rate
47.0%
Resolved
96
Trades
576
lifetime
Volume
$251.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$437
Open exposure
$40.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-11
last 11-02 00:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 27 days
Categories
Crypto
65%
74%
-$837
Other
30%
74%
-$82
Politics
5%
71%
-$214
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
14 active days in 12wk
• peak 7 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | -8,853 | -$7,687 | 92¢ | $-8100 | -$413 | 08-11 10:31 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | -5,000 | -$4,707 | 98¢ | $-4887 | -$180 | 07-19 09:58 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | -4,356 | -$4,251 | 98¢ | $-4258 | -$7 | 08-07 22:48 | |
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | -3,559 | -$2,954 | 95¢ | $-3374 | -$420 | 05-30 04:48 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | -3,000 | -$2,894 | 97¢ | $-2921 | -$26 | 11-02 00:55 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -2,659 | -$2,562 | 99¢ | $-2623 | -$61 | 07-16 08:10 | |
| Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | -1,283 | -$1,262 | 99¢ | $-1266 | -$4 | 05-01 06:05 | |
| Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? | No | -1,271 | -$1,222 | 95¢ | $-1210 | +$12 | 07-03 22:15 | |
| StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | -1,196 | -$1,107 | 98¢ | $-1173 | -$66 | 10-15 15:52 | |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | +1,130 | $961 | 96¢ | $1.1K | +$128 | 07-17 03:44 | |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,078 | $687 | 95¢ | $1.0K | +$333 | 06-30 02:26 | |
| Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? | No | +1,325 | $967 | 74¢ | $987 | +$20 | 07-03 09:42 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | -1,000 | -$958 | 99¢ | $-986 | -$28 | 07-13 11:20 | |
| Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | -1,000 | -$940 | 97¢ | $-968 | -$28 | 04-30 10:07 | |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | +898 | $682 | 96¢ | $860 | +$177 | 06-29 09:18 | |
| Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | -758 | -$743 | 97¢ | $-737 | +$6 | 10-24 11:06 | |
| StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch? | No | -507 | -$499 | 98¢ | $-498 | +$1 | 05-14 23:27 | |
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | -487 | -$473 | 99¢ | $-482 | -$9 | 11-02 00:52 | |
| StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | -473 | -$459 | 98¢ | $-462 | -$2 | 10-15 08:50 | |
| Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? | No | -446 | -$433 | 94¢ | $-419 | +$13 | 11-01 01:17 | |
| Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | +357 | $317 | 96¢ | $344 | +$28 | 09-12 12:28 | |
| Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026? | No | -268 | -$252 | 98¢ | $-264 | -$12 | 06-03 10:14 | |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | No | +220 | $195 | 95¢ | $209 | +$13 | 09-12 12:27 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -201 | -$193 | 99¢ | $-198 | -$6 | 05-22 21:44 | |
| Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? | No | -197 | -$185 | 97¢ | $-192 | -$6 | 05-21 21:34 | |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | -200 | -$80 | 94¢ | $-188 | -$108 | 07-24 09:34 | |
| StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | -165 | -$109 | 98¢ | $-162 | -$53 | 07-17 03:44 | |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | -348 | -$94 | 44¢ | $-155 | -$61 | 09-24 10:45 | |
| Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | +62 | $39 | 94¢ | $59 | +$20 | 06-29 09:34 | |
| Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | -20 | -$19 | 97¢ | $-19 | $0 | 09-27 12:56 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733 | 63 | $20.4K | 9,757 | 13,904 | -4,147 | No | -$1,071 | 04-16 08:14 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | 1 | $19.4K | 0 | 19,442 | -19,442 | No | -$19 | 06-30 02:26 |
| megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182 | 18 | $13.7K | 7,395 | 6,873 | +522 | No | -$12 | 04-16 07:38 |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | 17 | $12.0K | 6,578 | 6,578 | +0 | No | +$656 | 04-01 04:34 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 10 | $9.7K | 3,001 | 7,357 | -4,356 | open | — | 08-07 22:48 |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | 11 | $9.5K | 6,668 | 6,668 | +0 | No | -$2,198 | 03-31 13:13 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | 5 | $8.6K | 500 | 9,353 | -8,853 | open | — | 08-11 10:31 |
| nothing ever happens microstrategy | 2 | $8.3K | 5,000 | 5,000 | +0 | No | -$150 | 01-12 03:32 |
| megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352 | 4 | $6.5K | 4,562 | 4,562 | +0 | Yes | -$351 | 04-02 05:57 |
| megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681 | 5 | $6.1K | 3,521 | 3,521 | +0 | Yes | -$70 | 04-11 00:37 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 25 | $5.8K | 2,708 | 3,264 | -556 | No | +$24 | 02-07 12:45 |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? | 10 | $5.6K | 5,671 | 5,671 | +0 | Yes | -$2,344 | 03-30 11:11 |
| will solana reach 160 in february 2026 | 4 | $5.0K | 2,551 | 2,551 | +0 | No | +$9 | 02-05 13:41 |
| Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? | 14 | $4.9K | 5,368 | 0 | +5,368 | No | +$472 | 03-29 22:50 |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | 2 | $4.7K | 0 | 5,000 | -5,000 | open | — | 07-19 09:58 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? | 1 | $4.5K | 0 | 4,542 | -4,542 | No | -$5 | 07-01 05:08 |
| USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? | 3 | $4.4K | 2,958 | 2,958 | +0 | Yes | +$61 | 04-08 00:54 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 7 | $4.1K | 2,998 | 2,998 | +0 | Yes | -$257 | 03-23 11:51 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | 5 | $3.7K | 2,000 | 2,000 | +0 | No | +$44 | 04-16 12:33 |
| EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? | 3 | $3.7K | 2,000 | 2,000 | +0 | No | +$237 | 03-22 10:09 |
| Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? | 3 | $3.3K | 1,707 | 1,707 | +0 | No | +$68 | 03-24 14:27 |
| si hit 65 low jan 2026 292 389 318 | 2 | $3.1K | 1,628 | 1,628 | +0 | No | +$82 | 01-30 19:15 |
| Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? | 4 | $3.0K | 0 | 3,326 | -3,326 | Yes | +$3,027 | 08-13 18:01 |
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | 1 | $3.0K | 0 | 3,559 | -3,559 | open | — | 05-30 04:48 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | 2 | $2.9K | 0 | 3,000 | -3,000 | open | — | 11-02 00:55 |
| will ethereum reach 4000 in january 2026 | 1 | $2.9K | 3,000 | 0 | +3,000 | No | +$111 | 01-13 00:37 |
| Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026? | 3 | $2.7K | 0 | 2,820 | -2,820 | open | — | 10-25 02:54 |
| will strategy microstrategy mstr be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026 | 3 | $2.7K | 1,406 | 1,406 | -0 | No | +$57 | 03-19 23:43 |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | 6 | $2.6K | 0 | 2,659 | -2,659 | open | — | 07-16 08:10 |
| Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? | 11 | $2.5K | 1,351 | 1,351 | +0 | No | +$115 | 09-12 12:26 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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