Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.83K

Unrealized P&L

-$378

Hit rate

51.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$26.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$457

Open exposure

$2.15K

12 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 10-11 18:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Politics

74% 24% -$4,636

Sports

18% 20% +$712

Other

8% 38% +$112

Crypto

0% 0% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-2,679	-$295	17¢	$-455	-$161	06-15 12:33
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	+426	$325	80¢	$341	+$16	10-11 18:33
iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674	Yes	+1,030	$320	27¢	$278	-$42	08-01 16:08
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,554	$300	16¢	$253	-$47	08-01 16:06
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	+661	$231	29¢	$188	-$43	09-22 19:04
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+500	$100	34¢	$168	+$68	08-23 11:10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+263	$100	62¢	$164	+$64	10-01 18:51
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+6,676	$147	2¢	$110	-$37	08-07 08:13
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+359	$97	16¢	$56	-$41	08-02 10:29
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	+1,832	$100	3¢	$51	-$49	08-01 15:53
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+469	$100	11¢	$49	-$51	10-01 18:43
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	+533	$96	8¢	$40	-$56	08-23 11:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$3.6K	3,603	10,880	-7,277	Yes	-$2,555	06-15 12:33
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$3.0K	3,687	0	+3,687	No	+$700	04-19 17:21
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$2.7K	5,395	5,395	+0	No	+$1,663	07-18 18:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$2.5K	3,862	0	+3,862	No	+$1,352	05-25 20:34
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	1	$2.5K	5,228	0	+5,228	Yes	-$2,510	03-27 21:20
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	1	$1.9K	2,216	0	+2,216	No	+$266	07-18 18:23
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	2	$1.2K	754	754	+0	Yes	+$218	08-02 10:04
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.1K	1,532	1,532	+0	No	-$72	07-08 20:37
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	2	$675	1,711	1,711	+0	No	-$503	07-25 09:05
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$562	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	08-07 08:08
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$486	6,203	6,203	+0	open	—	09-22 19:01
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$437	2,778	2,778	+0	No	-$163	06-28 08:33
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$400	6,884	0	+6,884	No	-$400	06-16 20:03
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	1	$325	426	0	+426	open	—	10-11 18:33
iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674	1	$320	1,030	0	+1,030	open	—	08-01 16:08
will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	1	$317	488	0	+488	Yes	+$171	08-01 16:10
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$316	35,150	0	+35,150	No	-$316	06-16 20:04
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	1	$300	1,554	0	+1,554	open	—	08-01 16:06
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	1	$300	2,143	0	+2,143	Yes	-$300	04-09 20:17
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$300	667	0	+667	Yes	-$300	08-02 10:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$295	0	2,679	-2,679	open	—	06-15 12:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$290	426	0	+426	No	+$136	08-23 11:08
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	1	$250	5,000	0	+5,000	Yes	-$250	04-09 20:17
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	1	$231	661	0	+661	open	—	09-22 19:04
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$201	495	0	+495	Yes	-$201	04-09 20:20
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	2	$187	195	195	+0	Yes	-$5	08-01 15:42
us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	1	$149	1,607	0	+1,607	Yes	-$149	04-09 20:18
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$147	6,676	0	+6,676	open	—	08-07 08:13
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	1	$100	500	0	+500	open	—	08-23 11:10
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	1	$100	526	0	+526	No	-$100	08-02 10:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-11 18:33:18	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	426	76¢	$325	0xb995bd…
10-11 18:30:18	Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	510	20¢	$100	0x8ed232…
10-01 18:51:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0x356af7…
10-01 18:43:47	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	469	21¢	$100	0xe3ac74…
09-22 19:04:37	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	661	35¢	$231	0xe7dc8d…
09-22 19:01:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,203	4¢	$236	0xd75dfb…
08-23 11:21:52	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	533	18¢	$96	0x2008be…
08-23 11:10:07	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0xee2e5e…
08-23 11:08:16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	426	68¢	$290	0x13e87f…
08-07 08:13:54	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	6,676	2¢	$147	0x293b33…
08-07 08:10:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	769	13¢	$100	0x5b7d05…
08-07 08:08:16	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	2,500	10¢	$262	0xad9940…
08-02 10:29:41	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	359	27¢	$97	0x7d5608…
08-02 10:20:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 10:20 UTC	Up	BUY	110	18¢	$20	0xa8fa66…
08-02 10:12:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0xddf8ea…
08-02 10:12:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0x0c4d92…
08-02 10:11:53	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	667	45¢	$300	0xf848c8…
08-02 10:11:12	will a european country take military action on iran by august 31 20260720005529606	Yes	BUY	2,944	3¢	$100	0x38f7a5…
08-02 10:04:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	754	95¢	$718	0x8e5697…
08-01 16:10:38	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	Yes	BUY	488	65¢	$317	0x67b580…
08-01 16:08:08	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674	Yes	BUY	1,030	31¢	$320	0x535915…
08-01 16:06:56	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	1,554	19¢	$300	0xcb0d5f…
08-01 16:06:29	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,203	4¢	$250	0x6b96b4…
08-01 16:04:18	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2,500	12¢	$300	0xc7e805…
08-01 16:02:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	754	66¢	$500	0x993a29…
08-01 15:57:12	will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	Yes	BUY	1,429	7¢	$100	0xc425ba…
08-01 15:53:17	US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,832	5¢	$100	0xbfb072…
08-01 15:42:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	195	47¢	$91	0xd06c05…
07-25 09:11:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	195	49¢	$96	0x84094f…
07-25 09:05:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	1,711	5¢	$86	0xd64cb3…
07-18 18:23:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	2,216	88¢	$1,950	0x8bed14…
07-18 18:17:12	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5,395	40¢	$2,163	0x8a014c…
07-08 20:39:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829	Yes	BUY	1,711	34¢	$589	0xbe2690…
07-08 20:37:04	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,532	32¢	$498	0xb214bd…
07-08 20:33:22	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	217	23¢	$50	0x2c7666…
07-04 20:17:53	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	152	21¢	$32	0x1dbfd8…
07-04 20:17:23	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,532	37¢	$570	0xc54110…
06-28 08:41:37	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	263	19¢	$50	0x6191fa…
06-28 08:41:17	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	312	16¢	$50	0x9edc19…
06-28 08:33:38	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,778	5¢	$137	0xc1974e…
06-16 20:04:34	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	7,372	1¢	$66	0x13a891…
06-16 20:04:04	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,062	10¢	$200	0x85b7f2…
06-16 20:03:52	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,419	6¢	$150	0xe5dcb4…
06-16 20:03:40	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,778	11¢	$300	0x6cc8e9…
06-15 12:33:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10,880	5¢	$544	0x31df6f…
06-15 12:33:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,679	11¢	$295	0x49ef0d…
06-14 08:51:45	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	137	48¢	$66	0xfccc12…
06-08 08:42:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,603	86¢	$3,099	0x899742…
06-01 14:22:14	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3,333	9¢	$300	0x7278da…
06-01 14:20:48	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	27,778	1¢	$250	0x926fa2…
06-01 14:20:19	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4,464	6¢	$250	0xd4695e…
05-25 20:34:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,862	65¢	$2,510	0x2b7187…
04-19 17:21:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	3,687	81¢	$2,986	0x356688…
04-09 20:20:25	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	495	41¢	$201	0x4d75fa…
04-09 20:18:23	us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	No	BUY	1,607	9¢	$149	0x03dbd9…
04-09 20:17:41	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	No	BUY	5,000	5¢	$250	0x5d1afc…
04-09 20:17:21	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	2,143	14¢	$300	0xa4d6bb…
03-27 21:20:47	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	BUY	5,228	48¢	$2,510	0x45cb10…