Vague-Speech — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.81K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.4%

Resolved

Trades

3,995

lifetime

Volume

$2.70M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$676

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 08-10 17:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

81% 100% +$5,372

Other

19% 50% $-180

Sports

1% 0% $-10,000

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 152 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	296	$303.2K	372,688	294,162	+78,526	open	—	05-30 17:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	74	$220.3K	186,595	107,473	+79,122	open	—	06-07 20:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	183	$214.3K	115,525	149,090	-33,565	open	—	07-17 21:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	65	$182.6K	92,000	92,000	+0	open	—	07-25 17:21
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	165	$140.4K	171,574	168,093	+3,480	open	—	04-18 11:05
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	100	$120.8K	134,025	124,347	+9,678	open	—	04-18 11:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	50	$87.8K	64,405	71,657	-7,251	open	—	06-17 17:23
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	28	$69.6K	71,275	71,636	-361	open	—	03-27 01:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	266	$59.8K	80,493	81,182	-689	open	—	04-25 16:07
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	15	$51.1K	27,792	27,792	-0	open	—	03-24 08:10
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	22	$49.9K	50,777	0	+50,777	open	—	04-12 19:18
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	103	$44.1K	73,778	54,259	+19,519	open	—	06-14 16:12
israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	89	$43.8K	28,436	28,436	+0	open	—	07-17 02:25
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	13	$43.8K	25,000	25,000	+0	open	—	08-04 06:04
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	16	$43.3K	29,093	29,093	+0	open	—	05-22 23:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	192	$38.1K	128,956	119,879	+9,077	open	—	04-07 23:12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	51	$36.1K	33,022	4,720	+28,302	open	—	06-21 00:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	78	$34.5K	53,710	58,710	-5,000	open	—	04-21 19:33
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	91	$34.3K	102,691	137,028	-34,336	open	—	06-17 17:24
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	19	$33.9K	24,622	24,622	+0	open	—	04-11 21:09
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	3	$33.8K	20,000	20,000	+0	open	—	08-02 03:28
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	2	$29.5K	31,023	0	+31,023	open	—	04-12 19:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	86	$28.7K	107,303	103,255	+4,048	open	—	05-12 11:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	57	$27.9K	78,188	83,520	-5,333	open	—	05-25 19:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	125	$27.4K	79,524	84,032	-4,508	open	—	05-31 02:43
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	34	$26.1K	28,402	22,312	+6,090	open	—	05-29 16:42
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	54	$25.1K	17,760	17,760	+0	open	—	05-16 15:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	22	$24.9K	4,862	20,372	-15,510	open	—	04-21 16:17
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	29	$23.4K	31,810	31,810	+0	open	—	04-21 19:34
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	83	$23.2K	31,720	22,977	+8,743	open	—	04-16 18:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 21:43:00	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128	No	SELL	52	75¢	$39	0x0fd369…
08-10 17:40:07	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	SELL	2,216	50¢	$1,108	0xefc954…
08-10 09:01:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	SELL	39	64¢	$25	0x319033…
08-10 04:59:58	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	SELL	188	31¢	$58	0xf9f0ae…
08-10 04:39:40	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	SELL	12	31¢	$4	0x0077c9…
08-10 04:29:30	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	SELL	19	31¢	$6	0xde142b…
08-10 04:29:28	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	SELL	150	29¢	$44	0x8f7fe0…
08-09 07:28:01	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	SELL	95	50¢	$48	0x73e52d…
08-08 18:18:06	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	BUY	1,500	67¢	$1,005	0xaae836…
08-07 15:21:43	Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xca6d6b…
08-07 09:47:37	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	1,013	48¢	$486	0x25316d…
08-07 01:38:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	3,284	57¢	$1,872	0xe3fa75…
08-07 00:59:23	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	43	57¢	$25	0x2c6ccc…
08-06 20:21:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x7feff0…
08-06 20:15:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	2,254	56¢	$1,262	0x2f217a…
08-06 20:15:23	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	1,063	55¢	$585	0x43875b…
08-06 14:51:35	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	1,231	50¢	$616	0xdc150e…
08-06 09:17:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	1,208	33¢	$396	0xda604e…
08-06 03:31:45	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	400	50¢	$200	0x24bff9…
08-06 01:25:53	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	7	32¢	$2	0x1696c1…
08-06 01:21:44	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	1,215	33¢	$404	0xc71b9c…
08-06 01:14:42	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	10,703	88¢	$9,419	0xb38c34…
08-05 16:23:51	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x29aa67…
08-05 16:21:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	1,474	43¢	$628	0x41747b…
08-05 14:04:47	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	33	50¢	$16	0x0312ab…
08-05 13:37:50	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	1,610	50¢	$805	0xf2f6df…
08-05 12:11:42	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	376	50¢	$188	0x36ed62…
08-05 12:05:26	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	339	50¢	$169	0xacacf1…
08-05 11:13:56	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	1,308	47¢	$614	0xeb5757…
08-05 11:01:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x0d4239…
08-05 10:47:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	56	47¢	$26	0x974337…
08-05 10:47:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x16d675…
08-05 04:49:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	Yes	SELL	1,649	86¢	$1,418	0xc92bac…
08-05 02:10:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	Yes	BUY	1,688	85¢	$1,435	0x903aa7…
08-04 20:31:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0xf94145…
08-04 19:28:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	5,978	44¢	$2,643	0x850cab…
08-04 19:24:17	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	23	63¢	$14	0x182d0c…
08-04 19:15:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	75	63¢	$47	0x089fc7…
08-04 19:15:35	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	907	63¢	$572	0xd57111…
08-04 19:15:35	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x818a8c…
08-04 19:15:35	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x67015a…
08-04 19:15:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x535ca2…
08-04 19:15:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0x467ced…
08-04 18:38:24	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	102	8¢	$9	0xc18a8a…
08-04 18:34:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	1,000	59¢	$589	0x60e76f…
08-04 18:30:47	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	937	59¢	$555	0x73c277…
08-04 18:24:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	5,063	62¢	$3,155	0xf818e2…
08-04 18:19:00	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$3	0xe7edcd…
08-04 18:16:50	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	613	59¢	$362	0xcdbb5d…
08-04 18:09:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	2,256	39¢	$889	0x1291a8…
08-04 18:06:27	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xa622e6…
08-04 17:34:08	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	1,095	8¢	$92	0x4a65dd…
08-04 17:21:59	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	855	8¢	$72	0x73efeb…
08-04 17:21:02	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xebc145…
08-04 16:23:24	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	1,133	8¢	$91	0xcae60f…
08-04 16:12:03	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	16	13¢	$2	0xa8f22f…
08-04 16:09:15	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	193	13¢	$25	0xa9d834…
08-04 16:08:57	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	467	11¢	$50	0x3b693d…
08-04 16:01:00	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	16	10¢	$2	0x2dab12…
08-04 16:00:45	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	1,600	10¢	$158	0x8ab8b5…
08-04 15:59:59	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	16	10¢	$2	0x68bd6f…
08-04 15:59:36	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	491	10¢	$49	0x61e872…
08-04 15:52:08	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0xecc7d7…
08-04 15:52:06	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0xb90442…
08-04 15:52:06	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x81805a…
08-04 15:52:06	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x585e8b…
08-04 15:51:57	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	70	17¢	$12	0xbe77e2…
08-04 15:51:48	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x913844…
08-04 15:51:47	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0x2f36d6…
08-04 15:49:03	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	635	17¢	$108	0x37acdd…
08-04 15:48:12	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	55	17¢	$9	0x9be9ef…
08-04 15:47:36	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	470	17¢	$80	0x5be712…
08-04 15:43:08	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	337	85¢	$288	0x0ed39e…
08-04 15:40:17	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	BUY	2,400	25¢	$600	0xedaf1a…
08-04 15:39:32	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	BUY	2,641	22¢	$584	0x302dca…
08-04 15:39:18	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	BUY	3,233	18¢	$582	0x23c797…
08-04 15:36:51	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x818e1d…
08-04 15:36:50	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0xb00db4…
08-04 15:36:50	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x9b9b62…
08-04 15:36:50	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x631ae4…
08-04 15:36:50	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x5a2d57…
08-04 15:36:32	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0xd772de…
08-04 15:36:32	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x5506ac…
08-04 15:36:32	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	133	85¢	$113	0x2cf4d1…
08-04 15:35:12	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x4e545f…
08-04 15:35:05	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	23	81¢	$19	0xf5b689…
08-04 14:44:39	Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xc72143…
08-04 14:12:12	Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	6¢	$4	0x266fe1…
08-04 11:49:21	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0x908ead…
08-04 11:49:17	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x5dad1d…
08-04 11:49:17	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x52e0b7…
08-04 11:45:44	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	104	28¢	$29	0xef6ffe…
08-04 11:45:44	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	352	28¢	$98	0x61cd5e…
08-04 11:08:35	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	16¢	$160	0x106bdc…
08-04 10:11:59	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	130	24¢	$31	0x24b41f…
08-04 10:08:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	24¢	$0	0xb1ae06…
08-04 10:08:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	24¢	$0	0x20e9f7…
08-04 10:08:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x74a9fe…
08-04 10:08:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	24¢	$0	0x4ee968…
08-04 10:08:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x36b08f…