Realized P&L
-$170.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$24.9K
Hit rate
79.5%
Resolved
940
Trades
40,402
lifetime
Volume
$21.6M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$536
Open exposure
$792.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-12
last 10-28 16:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 131 days
Categories
Other
75%
97%
+$105,260
Politics
25%
76%
-$277,833
Crypto
1%
94%
+$1,804
Sports
0%
50%
+$6
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 354 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | +240,534 | $224,496 | 90¢ | $217.7K | -$6,813 | 10-11 18:42 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | +212,191 | $182,256 | 86¢ | $183.5K | +$1,289 | 10-07 05:06 | |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? | No | +89,486 | $87,181 | 99¢ | $89.0K | +$1,813 | 10-28 11:44 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | -52,276 | -$63,032 | 94¢ | $-49401 | +$13,631 | 10-28 09:46 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +30,000 | $25,800 | 80¢ | $24.1K | -$1,650 | 09-30 17:15 | |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | +23,000 | $21,911 | 97¢ | $22.2K | +$296 | 10-28 16:48 | |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | No | +22,995 | $21,494 | 92¢ | $21.3K | -$223 | 10-20 20:05 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | +21,295 | $20,019 | 98¢ | $20.9K | +$850 | 10-16 17:00 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October? | No | +16,471 | $15,637 | 99¢ | $16.4K | +$735 | 10-06 20:14 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | +15,807 | $14,168 | 90¢ | $14.3K | +$137 | 10-05 14:19 | |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | No | +12,506 | $11,388 | 98¢ | $12.3K | +$931 | 10-26 20:52 | |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | No | +12,247 | $11,050 | 97¢ | $11.9K | +$811 | 10-05 04:12 | |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | +16,000 | $13,050 | 68¢ | $10.9K | -$2,170 | 10-03 05:00 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | -10,901 | -$15,761 | 97¢ | $-10558 | +$5,203 | 09-20 19:56 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | +10,428 | $9,177 | 92¢ | $9.6K | +$469 | 08-10 15:06 | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | +19,000 | $5,836 | 43¢ | $8.2K | +$2,325 | 10-15 12:10 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | No | +8,210 | $6,358 | 97¢ | $8.0K | +$1,606 | 10-28 12:17 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | +8,774 | $6,932 | 80¢ | $7.0K | +$88 | 10-28 17:25 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | No | +6,954 | $6,515 | 100¢ | $6.9K | +$407 | 10-28 13:24 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | +7,117 | $5,291 | 96¢ | $6.8K | +$1,540 | 10-10 19:05 | |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | +7,000 | $6,709 | 96¢ | $6.7K | +$32 | 10-28 16:48 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | No | +6,000 | $5,922 | 99¢ | $5.9K | +$27 | 10-28 16:11 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | +6,047 | $4,308 | 78¢ | $4.7K | +$430 | 10-11 06:58 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | +10,110 | $4,474 | 46¢ | $4.6K | +$126 | 08-17 20:22 | |
| France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026? | No | +4,546 | $4,495 | 100¢ | $4.5K | +$44 | 10-23 19:41 | |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | No | +4,892 | $4,403 | 88¢ | $4.3K | -$122 | 10-22 01:14 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | -3,618 | -$3,153 | 96¢ | $-3475 | -$322 | 09-22 14:14 | |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | +10,081 | $2,646 | 27¢ | $2.7K | +$81 | 08-19 14:18 | |
| France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026? | No | +2,401 | $2,349 | 99¢ | $2.4K | +$30 | 10-24 09:36 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -2,000 | -$5,249 | 98¢ | $-1959 | +$3,290 | 09-03 16:14 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 3,298 | $2.09M | 1,155,221 | 1,207,496 | -52,276 | open | — | 10-28 09:46 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 2,878 | $1.49M | 716,844 | 839,061 | -122,218 | No | -$787 | 06-17 17:02 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 1,359 | $1.14M | 651,051 | 577,654 | +73,397 | No | +$20,917 | 05-31 08:04 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | 1,025 | $1.05M | 526,109 | 597,270 | -71,160 | No | +$10,678 | 06-20 13:41 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 965 | $869.3K | 492,929 | 482,356 | +10,573 | No | +$13,849 | 04-28 15:55 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | 272 | $821.8K | 413,987 | 413,987 | +0 | No | +$3,250 | 09-27 20:37 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 30 | 1,667 | $752.4K | 553,796 | 394,769 | +159,028 | Yes | -$120,875 | 04-06 17:11 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 4,927 | $742.4K | 393,523 | 395,523 | -2,000 | open | — | 09-03 16:14 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 556 | $688.4K | 378,957 | 379,615 | -658 | open | — | 08-30 04:37 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15 | 292 | $559.7K | 308,077 | 284,522 | +23,554 | No | +$10,085 | 04-14 07:50 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | 219 | $468.4K | 240,564 | 235,564 | +5,000 | No | +$3,618 | 07-30 11:20 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | 697 | $465.8K | 215,138 | 261,832 | -46,694 | No | +$2,526 | 06-10 12:34 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 909 | $451.8K | 238,423 | 238,424 | -0 | open | — | 08-23 06:26 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | 828 | $418.2K | 225,830 | 236,731 | -10,901 | open | — | 09-20 19:56 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | 275 | $342.6K | 302,767 | 62,233 | +240,534 | open | — | 10-11 18:42 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 760 | $342.3K | 253,039 | 120,774 | +132,265 | Yes | -$121,011 | 04-06 13:19 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | 322 | $331.3K | 168,358 | 168,358 | +0 | No | +$1,009 | 09-25 06:44 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 326 | $325.4K | 200,900 | 139,073 | +61,827 | No | +$2,917 | 05-12 06:31 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | 320 | $298.5K | 154,211 | 154,211 | +0 | No | +$2,013 | 08-25 09:14 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | 199 | $241.7K | 124,967 | 124,967 | +0 | No | +$4,494 | 09-03 14:45 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 295 | $234.4K | 242,593 | 30,403 | +212,191 | open | — | 10-07 05:06 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? | 137 | $219.7K | 110,910 | 110,910 | +0 | No | +$1,203 | 09-07 17:46 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 217 | $215.7K | 121,000 | 114,528 | +6,471 | No | +$4,767 | 06-27 12:37 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? | 444 | $209.0K | 116,246 | 114,860 | +1,385 | No | -$2,111 | 04-30 00:20 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 162 | $200.6K | 101,861 | 111,000 | -9,138 | No | +$8,518 | 04-16 11:35 |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? | 315 | $181.4K | 137,661 | 48,175 | +89,486 | open | — | 10-28 11:44 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 241 | $180.2K | 89,837 | 111,645 | -21,809 | Yes | +$17,414 | 05-05 01:32 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 315 | $162.4K | 79,518 | 86,525 | -7,006 | No | +$790 | 03-29 21:20 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | 226 | $148.8K | 75,265 | 75,265 | +0 | No | +$1,357 | 06-26 02:53 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | 25 | $144.9K | 85,722 | 85,722 | +0 | open | — | 06-30 21:02 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||