Arctic-Thesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.2%

Resolved

Trades

10,776

lifetime

Volume

$46.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 06-01 13:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

50% 8% +$4

Crypto

31% — —

Politics

10% 0% $-0

Sports

8% 100% +$3

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	7	$983	475	520	-45	open	—	02-25 03:08
epl wol liv 2026 03 03 liv	12	$949	1,448	1,494	-46	open	—	03-03 19:36
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	3	$869	444	444	+0	open	—	03-02 17:14
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$860	444	444	+0	open	—	02-28 08:03
epl eve mun 2026 02 23 mun	2	$849	567	567	+0	open	—	02-23 23:26
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	9	$848	1,466	557	+909	open	—	02-27 10:16
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	5	$835	425	425	+0	open	—	05-30 18:17
nba sas gsw 2026 02 11	76	$604	711	589	+122	open	—	02-12 05:28
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$577	0	618	-618	open	—	06-01 13:01
btc updown 15m 1770983100	178	$538	1,044	103	+941	open	—	02-13 11:55
btc updown 5m 1771267200	1	$510	1,051	0	+1,051	open	—	02-16 18:45
uel not fen1 2026 02 26 not	4	$510	1,285	0	+1,285	open	—	02-26 19:42
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	19	$504	889	65	+823	open	—	03-25 12:33
will company e be accused of insider trading	27	$478	363	239	+124	open	—	02-26 14:45
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	2	$470	474	0	+474	open	—	02-26 23:18
cs2 prv mnte 2026 03 04	11	$468	391	378	+13	open	—	03-04 16:24
lol c9 ly 2026 04 04	7	$466	370	392	-22	open	—	04-04 22:31
eth updown 15m 1770982200	40	$445	996	8	+988	open	—	02-13 11:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$394	395	0	+395	open	—	03-03 22:13
btc updown 5m 1770894900	382	$384	1,067	513	+554	open	—	02-12 11:19
cs2 m80 tl1 2026 03 04	4	$366	355	586	-230	open	—	03-04 20:51
cdr atm fcb 2026 02 12 fcb	101	$332	373	238	+135	open	—	02-12 19:52
meta up or down on february 17 2026	7	$301	354	101	+253	open	—	02-17 21:01
will hyperliquid be accused of insider trading	12	$298	546	61	+485	open	—	02-25 14:16
btc updown 5m 1771429200	1	$288	28,800	0	+28,800	open	—	02-18 15:45
no release by march 1 585	2	$280	141	141	+0	open	—	02-26 14:46
solana up or down february 13 6am et	65	$266	563	0	+563	open	—	02-13 11:56
cwbb indst illchi 2026 01 04	1	$260	263	0	+263	open	—	02-17 13:22
will solana dip to 70 february 9 15	14	$255	130	130	+0	open	—	02-16 03:21
ucl juv gal 2026 02 25 juv	2	$249	378	378	+0	open	—	02-25 19:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 13:06:59	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x7cb920…
06-01 13:06:59	Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x5e4b36…
06-01 13:06:57	Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0xf668e2…
06-01 13:06:57	Will Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before July?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xdd11ab…
06-01 13:06:57	Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July?	No	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x7e7068…
06-01 13:06:57	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x6cf311…
06-01 13:06:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x5302db…
06-01 13:06:56	Will FURIA make a roster change before July?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xead2d3…
06-01 13:06:56	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xc58507…
06-01 13:06:56	Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xae07a2…
06-01 13:06:56	Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x897e8a…
06-01 13:06:56	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x807dce…
06-01 13:06:56	Will Aurora make a roster change before July?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x3c77ca…
06-01 13:06:56	Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x3803b3…
06-01 13:06:56	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x2f38e4…
06-01 13:06:54	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xde6145…
06-01 13:06:54	Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0xc7048c…
06-01 13:06:54	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0xc31798…
06-01 13:06:54	Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x9c95de…
06-01 13:06:54	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x6f2591…
06-01 13:06:54	Will T1 make a roster change before July?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x40e862…
06-01 13:06:52	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	6¢	$1	0xe95849…
06-01 13:06:52	Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	6¢	$1	0xcc742f…
06-01 13:06:52	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0x6887f6…
06-01 13:06:52	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	11	24¢	$3	0x329630…
06-01 13:06:50	Tea FDV above $500M one day after launch	Yes	SELL	16	0¢	$0	0xb45168…
06-01 13:06:50	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xb31566…
06-01 13:06:50	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	47	1¢	$0	0x65cd36…
06-01 13:06:50	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	5¢	$1	0x4b60f4…
06-01 13:06:50	Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30?	Yes	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0x000d08…
06-01 13:06:00	Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x1b86c9…
06-01 13:05:42	Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	17¢	$4	0xd8b33e…
06-01 13:05:12	Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x8f97ce…
06-01 13:04:44	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$9	0x12de50…
06-01 13:04:30	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	13	84¢	$11	0x9f8751…
06-01 13:04:09	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	No	SELL	74	10¢	$7	0x072b57…
06-01 13:04:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xcccd45…
06-01 13:03:48	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	84¢	$11	0x657c53…
06-01 13:02:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	378	8¢	$30	0x7cc7df…
06-01 13:01:56	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	SELL	44	93¢	$41	0x2fb321…
06-01 13:01:37	Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5)	Svajda	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0x61ab0b…
06-01 13:01:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	618	93¢	$577	0x47acf0…
06-01 08:12:40	Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5)	Svajda	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x492ff4…
06-01 07:41:10	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x638542…
06-01 07:36:11	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf6aec1…
06-01 03:30:55	Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xf9a90c…
05-31 18:10:41	LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs	Shopify Rebellion	BUY	189	11¢	$21	0xc4cf1e…
05-31 18:09:59	Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x41ee1b…
05-31 16:27:26	Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0xa77907…
05-31 15:03:10	Will T1 make a roster change before July?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x141802…
05-31 11:27:18	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x554f07…
05-31 11:27:17	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe26c67…
05-31 11:26:54	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x58e674…
05-31 10:32:23	Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x0513b2…
05-31 07:23:41	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x70681d…
05-31 07:23:28	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xb6914e…
05-31 06:03:05	Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	28¢	$6	0x7edc6a…
05-31 05:49:07	Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x393ace…
05-30 23:02:43	Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe74e1b…
05-30 22:33:33	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x1b569b…
05-30 22:04:12	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0xd1aacd…
05-30 22:04:10	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x535e7b…
05-30 21:41:38	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0x17fd91…
05-30 21:30:26	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0x5b7558…
05-30 21:23:12	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0x90f7c6…
05-30 21:19:36	Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x57e0a6…
05-30 21:16:20	mlbb yndx ts 2026 05 31	Team Yandex	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0xf0fdbd…
05-30 21:05:12	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x01212d…
05-30 20:28:11	Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2	BBL Esports	SELL	72	40¢	$29	0x53e324…
05-30 20:27:05	Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2	BBL Esports	BUY	35	37¢	$13	0xcab3c0…
05-30 20:26:58	Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2	BBL Esports	BUY	37	37¢	$14	0x3c6204…
05-30 20:16:50	Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)	Athletics	BUY	89	74¢	$66	0x0a03b5…
05-30 18:17:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x052563…
05-30 01:48:36	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Canadiens	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xedfca0…
05-28 18:43:18	Tea FDV above $500M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xa9945d…
05-26 00:00:36	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0x77a292…
05-25 23:37:11	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	BUY	22	1¢	$0	0x2d853a…
05-25 23:32:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0x359347…
05-25 23:31:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x804add…
05-25 23:16:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	23	3¢	$1	0x7f90da…
05-25 23:15:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x3ea5ef…
05-25 23:06:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xedb255…
05-25 23:04:55	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x7d971e…
05-25 23:04:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x9eb2e3…
05-25 22:57:08	LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs	LOUD	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xb4d3ef…
05-25 21:53:28	LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs	LOUD	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x79b052…
05-25 07:52:19	Will Dplus qualify for EWC 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	40¢	$4	0x0a5e46…
05-25 04:49:29	LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	Dplus KIA	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x746a5c…
05-24 23:34:36	Will Bernie say "Coffee" in Maine?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x421d76…
05-24 23:34:30	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5	Under	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x4277be…
05-24 22:19:24	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5	Under	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x9a37fe…
05-24 03:49:24	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd45409…
05-24 03:49:24	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x415eba…
05-24 03:49:24	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x3df909…
05-24 03:49:24	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x38df37…
05-24 02:43:08	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x84d649…
05-24 02:42:46	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x5209f9…
05-23 18:07:56	LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	G2 Esports	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x7ded3f…
05-23 18:04:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	1,111	0¢	$1	0xaa2f32…
05-23 17:55:40	LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs	Vivo Keyd Stars	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xfb7029…