Content-Tavern — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

66.7%

Resolved

349

Trades

1,032

lifetime

Volume

$3.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$61

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 11-02 13:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 84 days

Categories

Other

46% 53% -$43

Politics

32% 48% -$3

Crypto

21% 60% +$33

Tech

0% 50% -$1

Sports

0% 57% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 65 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	+34	$31	92¢	$31	+$0	10-12 14:04
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	+11	$10	94¢	$10	+$0	10-19 13:40
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	+10	$10	96¢	$10	$0	10-21 14:01
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+5	$5	97¢	$5	+$0	10-23 06:09
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$5	94¢	$5	+$0	10-11 03:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	26	$255	138	138	+0	No	+$7	10-24 13:46
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 22?	10	$236	291	121	+170	No	-$19	05-22 14:54
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	15	$229	148	148	+0	open	—	10-24 13:47
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	12	$138	77	67	+10	open	—	10-21 14:01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 22?	7	$122	63	63	+0	Yes	+$2	05-22 07:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	2	$63	64	64	+0	Down	+$3	05-18 08:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	3	$60	55	55	+0	Up	+$48	05-15 12:10
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?	4	$58	32	32	+0	Yes	+$5	05-24 14:11
Iran Nuke before 2027?	4	$48	25	25	+0	open	—	10-11 21:05
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	23	$44	59	59	+0	open	—	11-02 13:53
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	8	$44	29	29	+0	open	—	11-02 13:54
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	6	$41	31	31	+0	open	—	10-23 11:02
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21?	2	$41	21	21	+0	Yes	+$1	05-21 17:26
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	5	$33	21	21	+0	No	+$1	10-24 08:41
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	3	$31	34	0	+34	open	—	10-12 14:04
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	5	$29	18	13	+5	open	—	10-23 06:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	3	$28	20	20	+0	Up	+$8	05-09 13:58
next confirmed pneumonic plague case in russia 20261003t000000000z will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in russia by october 15 2026	8	$27	25	25	+0	No	+$1	10-09 23:21
New pandemic in 2026?	6	$26	14	14	+0	open	—	10-11 21:06
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	5	$26	15	15	+0	Yes	$0	08-06 13:13
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 22?	3	$25	82	0	+82	No	-$25	05-22 12:40
Plague case in US by December 31?	5	$24	13	13	+0	open	—	10-24 13:48
will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	4	$24	13	13	+0	No	+$0	08-07 10:35
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	5	$24	12	12	+0	open	—	10-08 19:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	10	$22	14	14	+0	Down	+$4	10-10 23:49
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	3	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	10-08 19:54
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	5	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	10-11 20:56
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	6	$22	14	14	+0	No	+$1	10-07 11:10
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	4	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	10-07 11:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	4	$21	25	25	+0	Up	-$1	10-10 19:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 13:54:24	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0xa4f98a…
11-02 13:53:37	Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	9	27¢	$3	0x53db91…
10-24 13:51:26	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x92b4da…
10-24 13:49:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0x124b52…
10-24 13:49:03	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x331233…
10-24 13:48:42	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x2f2449…
10-24 13:48:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0xf12277…
10-24 13:48:00	Plague case in US by December 31?	No	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0xf08a4a…
10-24 13:47:38	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	67	81¢	$54	0xe984c9…
10-24 13:46:53	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	98¢	$62	0x5143f2…
10-24 13:42:29	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xd239dc…
10-24 08:42:48	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x39bffa…
10-24 08:42:30	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x110ad5…
10-24 08:41:30	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x452954…
10-23 11:02:50	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	67¢	$21	0x5702d6…
10-23 06:09:41	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x065d1c…
10-22 16:28:53	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x441499…
10-22 08:58:24	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x752a42…
10-22 08:44:44	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x26991f…
10-21 18:51:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in October?	Yes	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0x9588cb…
10-21 14:56:15	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x830302…
10-21 14:52:53	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x51d417…
10-21 14:52:35	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x977d80…
10-21 14:01:12	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xf57487…
10-20 11:25:53	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x1f0075…
10-19 21:03:27	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x499523…
10-19 13:46:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x37924b…
10-19 13:45:36	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xcf5ac0…
10-19 13:40:12	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x16261d…
10-19 13:39:00	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x1562f4…
10-19 13:38:36	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe33d13…
10-19 13:37:18	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xdd73ee…
10-19 13:36:15	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xea16f5…
10-19 12:18:18	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb42ad0…
10-18 23:28:41	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x572dc7…
10-18 22:33:27	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x5a8b4d…
10-18 21:55:00	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x9a6b09…
10-17 17:19:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x10980a…
10-17 12:45:51	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x976250…
10-17 12:27:26	US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x6c6f4b…
10-17 06:55:14	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x443550…
10-17 06:54:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0xd5b9d9…
10-17 02:18:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x4d4506…
10-17 02:12:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x41b954…
10-16 23:10:57	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xff1b26…
10-16 10:10:34	US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x01f1f9…
10-16 09:34:31	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x66f19d…
10-14 17:09:52	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x22a4f1…
10-14 17:09:00	Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x3e36c8…
10-13 11:21:31	Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe2e0ae…
10-12 20:08:50	NATO article 5 before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x585560…
10-12 17:50:17	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xfa517b…
10-12 17:45:27	Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0x2b2921…
10-12 15:14:15	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x557270…
10-12 14:10:05	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x0d8a9d…
10-12 14:04:47	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xc8b122…
10-12 14:03:36	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0x48c40d…
10-12 14:03:09	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x4e4586…
10-12 11:24:11	Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	No	SELL	9	76¢	$7	0x63d5fb…
10-12 00:05:15	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	67	96¢	$64	0xc8496a…
10-11 21:12:41	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x20ac5b…
10-11 21:10:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 15?	Yes	SELL	16	29¢	$5	0x6163e8…
10-11 21:09:47	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xd483cb…
10-11 21:06:52	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0x1e55ae…
10-11 21:05:34	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x82a3bf…
10-11 21:04:41	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	74	93¢	$69	0x4a3da4…
10-11 20:57:34	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x0e079d…
10-11 20:56:59	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0x897077…
10-11 20:56:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x6423dc…
10-11 20:53:14	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x1302e1…
10-11 10:59:11	Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x19f7c4…
10-11 03:45:48	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x5005b1…
10-10 23:53:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x87aedf…
10-10 23:52:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x1d458c…
10-10 23:52:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xfad6da…
10-10 23:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xdf947d…
10-10 23:52:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x49c73e…
10-10 23:51:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x8e8cad…
10-10 23:51:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0xe17c91…
10-10 23:51:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x3ec358…
10-10 23:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	14	99¢	$13	0x177a28…
10-10 23:48:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x7353e0…
10-10 23:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xe37f10…
10-10 23:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x7e8de3…
10-10 23:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xed106d…
10-10 23:47:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xceb680…
10-10 23:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x9d041c…
10-10 23:46:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xdfeebc…
10-10 23:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x357f14…
10-10 23:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x499e73…
10-10 23:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe72942…
10-10 23:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x17074c…
10-10 23:36:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	28¢	$1	0x3207c6…
10-10 23:35:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x961979…
10-10 23:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x1cda2f…
10-10 23:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x109aee…
10-10 23:25:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x40bff4…
10-10 23:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x7f92c7…
10-10 23:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x0d3bb4…
10-10 23:21:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2ff184…