Amusing-Fabric — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$399

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.0%

Resolved

Trades

978

lifetime

Volume

$41.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 08-07 09:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

76% 67% $-67

Other

16% 0% $-296

Tech

6% 100% +$24

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-60

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	23	$3.7K	4,100	4,744	-644	open	—	06-17 11:52
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	9	$3.5K	7,050	2,050	+5,000	open	—	04-07 05:38
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	30	$3.5K	112,514	2,514	+110,000	open	—	04-27 19:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	47	$1.7K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	05-14 22:10
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	17	$1.6K	2,870	2,870	+0	open	—	04-03 19:06
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	14	$1.5K	1,281	955	+327	open	—	03-29 19:08
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	8	$1.1K	241,000	1,000	+240,000	open	—	04-24 21:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$1.0K	600	600	+0	open	—	05-31 14:44
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$995	639	639	+0	open	—	02-28 21:43
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May 2026?	3	$982	500	500	+0	Yes	+$12	05-07 01:06
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	23	$911	900	450	+450	open	—	03-26 19:35
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	21	$858	1,460	710	+750	open	—	03-10 00:16
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	10	$853	603	603	+0	open	—	02-28 08:14
iran closes its airspace by june 8	27	$738	2,050	2,050	+0	open	—	06-07 22:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$692	600	600	+0	open	—	07-10 22:16
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	9	$691	700	700	+0	open	—	06-07 20:48
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	11	$602	302	302	+0	open	—	06-30 03:42
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	5	$599	400	400	+0	open	—	07-01 21:00
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	15	$562	1,105	605	+500	open	—	06-17 11:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	9	$523	400	400	+0	open	—	05-22 22:56
will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	10	$485	850	0	+850	open	—	07-24 16:31
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	2	$423	300	300	+0	open	—	04-11 14:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$405	600	1,000	-400	open	—	06-16 22:41
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	2	$377	200	200	+0	open	—	05-09 05:47
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	3	$359	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-29 22:14
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	8	$352	1,700	0	+1,700	open	—	04-10 17:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$336	200	200	+0	open	—	05-26 18:48
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	12	$336	200	200	+0	open	—	05-22 08:31
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$335	200	200	+0	open	—	04-05 06:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$332	200	200	+0	open	—	06-22 19:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 09:16:07	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x160490…
08-06 18:40:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0xc28f55…
08-05 21:10:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489	No	BUY	200	4¢	$9	0x1f33ee…
08-05 14:32:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xd79082…
08-04 19:04:14	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	600	0¢	$2	0x9d76c0…
08-04 19:01:53	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xec424c…
08-04 19:00:03	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xb800c0…
08-04 18:26:44	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	200	6¢	$11	0x8d24ce…
08-04 18:26:08	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	22	6¢	$1	0xe83767…
08-02 22:50:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xb847b9…
08-01 20:49:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	61	9¢	$5	0x6127b6…
08-01 20:48:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xfb66f7…
08-01 20:48:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	134	9¢	$12	0x4b0461…
07-29 23:14:47	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$7	0xf38823…
07-29 22:23:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	198	10¢	$20	0x263078…
07-29 21:51:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0xf2960f…
07-27 20:59:01	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	176	6¢	$10	0x9b8717…
07-27 20:59:00	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	24	6¢	$1	0xb7d9fc…
07-24 16:31:58	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	12	22¢	$3	0x87bf65…
07-24 16:31:58	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	38	22¢	$8	0x1c3a9b…
07-24 15:02:48	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xdb900f…
07-24 15:00:55	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	BUY	54	8¢	$4	0xed25d7…
07-24 15:00:54	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xca24a4…
07-24 15:00:54	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0x78da88…
07-24 15:00:54	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x4a8948…
07-24 15:00:52	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x3f47eb…
07-24 14:36:36	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	92	41¢	$38	0x36fc79…
07-24 14:36:13	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x6d9212…
07-24 05:24:40	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0xb279a7…
07-24 05:10:43	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	96	65¢	$62	0x1df200…
07-24 05:03:24	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x56a408…
07-23 22:28:31	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0x7cf132…
07-23 22:21:40	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	166	1¢	$2	0x5e5ea4…
07-23 22:20:24	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xb067e7…
07-23 22:20:00	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x913392…
07-23 22:19:49	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x3191e3…
07-23 16:51:00	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xee1874…
07-23 16:40:45	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0x56f6fe…
07-22 23:57:15	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xd07c14…
07-22 22:45:00	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x89b2ec…
07-21 04:48:15	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x754446…
07-19 22:01:24	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	300	2¢	$5	0x1c6e65…
07-19 21:50:45	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xa2c416…
07-19 21:48:49	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xe12fd9…
07-18 23:16:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	BUY	26	2¢	$0	0xdc0771…
07-18 23:16:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x3857ce…
07-18 23:16:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	BUY	32	2¢	$1	0xf36cc8…
07-18 23:16:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x26252e…
07-18 23:16:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$0	0xf34cce…
07-18 23:16:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	BUY	91	2¢	$1	0x8054b2…
07-18 22:53:46	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	BUY	210	2¢	$4	0x317c6c…
07-16 22:57:37	will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	No	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x2942cd…
07-16 22:37:46	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	77	33¢	$25	0x87be68…
07-16 22:33:14	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x0c6c76…
07-16 22:33:07	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x23cb74…
07-16 22:16:16	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	147	44¢	$64	0x1671fd…
07-16 22:15:58	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	12	44¢	$5	0x251ce3…
07-16 22:15:52	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	27	44¢	$12	0xf37177…
07-16 22:15:52	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	14	44¢	$6	0xa34a3b…
07-16 20:22:37	will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	No	BUY	94	25¢	$24	0x2960aa…
07-16 20:08:08	will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	No	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0xf8eb1f…
07-15 22:54:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x3200cd…
07-13 19:06:13	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x5f9cb4…
07-13 19:06:13	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	183	30¢	$55	0x2432c5…
07-13 15:46:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$15	0x946c84…
07-12 18:20:58	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x5ecb39…
07-12 13:19:38	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	Yes	BUY	270	3¢	$8	0x2dec5f…
07-12 13:10:47	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x94b159…
07-12 11:13:01	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	Yes	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x062333…
07-12 10:46:49	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	Yes	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0xf96256…
07-12 10:35:34	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	Yes	BUY	73	25¢	$18	0x3fc65f…
07-10 22:16:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	300	91¢	$273	0xc55e61…
07-09 21:59:19	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	No	BUY	150	7¢	$11	0x0672e5…
07-09 21:58:01	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	No	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x1acf8e…
07-09 21:57:04	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x64c8d7…
07-08 22:55:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xe0bc4b…
07-08 22:55:19	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x3a2a54…
07-08 22:50:40	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	SELL	97	8¢	$8	0xa987ab…
07-08 22:35:37	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	195	8¢	$15	0x3012dd…
07-08 22:23:58	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x808e93…
07-08 20:26:28	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0xf03a7a…
07-08 20:25:37	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	54	7¢	$4	0xfb21a7…
07-08 19:23:22	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	127	7¢	$9	0x6fae86…
07-08 18:37:43	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	19	7¢	$1	0xfcf07f…
07-08 18:19:29	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$10	0x7716f8…
07-08 17:35:38	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x55a9a2…
07-08 16:53:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0x37a33f…
07-07 22:09:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x070046…
07-07 21:43:32	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	183	8¢	$14	0xda6844…
07-07 21:43:32	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	17	8¢	$1	0x26f751…
07-07 21:42:20	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	96	7¢	$7	0xc4d971…
07-04 19:54:29	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 7	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x44551c…
07-03 20:48:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$25	0x017355…
07-03 18:54:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	171	13¢	$22	0xe1eb3f…
07-03 18:54:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	29	13¢	$4	0x922a6d…
07-03 12:28:49	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	97	9¢	$9	0x391fd6…
07-03 09:48:22	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x542bb2…
07-02 20:41:41	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	Yes	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0x6ada17…
07-02 20:25:55	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$6	0xb85b31…
07-02 20:22:44	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	Yes	BUY	400	3¢	$12	0x5994c8…