First-Providence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$30

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

81.6%

Resolved

184

Trades

230

lifetime

Volume

$1.40K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$22

1 position

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-29 15:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Other

43% 84% -$24

Politics

35% 95% +$4

Sports

14% 87% -$1

Crypto

6% 100% +$0

Tech

2% 86% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		+30	$20	72¢	$22	+$2	10-25 21:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 15 18	4	$190	97	97	+0	No	+$0	04-18 08:03
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	2	$190	95	95	+0	No	$0	04-07 19:52
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$97	98	0	+98	No	+$1	04-21 13:00
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	1	$87	88	0	+88	No	+$1	03-21 16:37
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by march 20	2	$87	87	0	+87	No	+$0	03-20 16:55
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	1	$59	60	0	+60	No	+$1	09-03 22:47
trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	2	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-15 15:15
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	10-03 13:15
putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	2	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-15 19:45
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 September 28-October 4?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	10-04 22:05
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	3	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$1	07-22 12:06
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$20	30	0	+30	open	—	10-25 21:47
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Czechia	3	$14	15	0	+15	Slovenia	-$14	05-16 19:05
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	4	$13	13	13	+0	Yes	-$10	07-29 22:19
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$12	17	0	+17	Yes	+$5	07-19 22:01
will ethereum dip to 700 in july 2026 526	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-08 18:05
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	02-04 21:20
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	2	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-25 22:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	3	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	05-15 15:28
will the us next strike iran on january 13 2026 et 111	1	$7	8	0	+8	No	+$1	01-13 18:29
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	1	$7	8	0	+8	No	+$1	01-13 18:29
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$7	8	0	+8	No	-$7	07-29 22:19
World Championships: Hungary vs. Finland	2	$7	7	0	+7	Finland	+$0	05-16 12:41
World Championships: Canada vs. Slovenia	2	$7	7	0	+7	Canada	+$0	05-21 20:56
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	1	$6	7	0	+7	No	+$1	03-04 10:26
Cambria FDV above $150M one day after launch?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	10-29 15:31
will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	2	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	07-09 21:56
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$6	11	0	+11	No	-$1	07-14 20:53
will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	02-04 21:21
Will France finish 4th place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	07-18 23:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 15:31:59	Cambria FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x11777d…
10-29 15:31:43	Cambria FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7a2c65…
10-25 21:47:38	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xc7ecdc…
10-04 22:05:22	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x59aa65…
10-03 13:15:27	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x53fc03…
09-03 22:47:49	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x0dfb3f…
09-03 21:36:34	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1b3ba9…
09-03 20:57:52	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x37d7e2…
08-15 19:45:30	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7aaf9d…
08-15 15:15:57	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x68e825…
08-02 19:59:56	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x20b4fb…
08-02 19:59:39	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x7bf24d…
07-29 22:19:20	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xa3aa63…
07-29 22:19:06	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x81048b…
07-25 22:37:07	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x56f98b…
07-23 21:13:19	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x794922…
07-23 12:23:42	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf02353…
07-22 12:06:58	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x833104…
07-19 22:01:07	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x6fd56f…
07-19 21:51:12	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x46d284…
07-19 21:51:03	Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x9e81bd…
07-19 21:50:48	Will Spain win the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x5d89a6…
07-19 21:50:40	Will Argentina win the World Cup?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x8c6b61…
07-19 21:43:25	Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xada801…
07-18 23:01:58	Will France finish 4th place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa0feb5…
07-18 23:01:46	Will France finish 4th place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8fe245…
07-18 23:01:37	Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xde6fe4…
07-18 21:47:52	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x09cd50…
07-18 21:47:09	Will England finish 4th place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x285637…
07-18 21:47:03	Will France finish 4th place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xc6da38…
07-18 21:46:57	Will France finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9052bb…
07-18 21:46:51	Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x01dd11…
07-15 20:58:59	Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb18ceb…
07-15 20:58:52	Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa0d03e…
07-15 20:58:41	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4798b7…
07-14 20:53:38	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdcd3e6…
07-14 20:53:17	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x556f52…
07-14 20:53:07	Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa54886…
07-14 20:52:53	Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x43f662…
07-14 20:52:44	Will France win the World Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x48ee2a…
07-14 20:52:14	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x80b53d…
07-12 10:51:32	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4df13d…
07-09 21:56:01	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2963e0…
07-09 21:55:50	will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x27cf44…
07-09 21:49:50	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x98a309…
07-08 18:05:41	will ethereum dip to 700 in july 2026 526	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xde67c3…
07-06 17:40:31	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3a7fa7…
07-06 15:07:10	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb11d90…
07-06 12:31:53	Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf6d282…
07-06 10:59:05	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x6759e1…
07-04 21:18:10	Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xeb58e2…
07-03 12:53:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x9a58d9…
07-03 10:32:32	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x108360…
07-02 18:37:47	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x145252…
07-02 16:15:40	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xa46be5…
07-01 22:44:40	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x64967c…
07-01 22:27:04	Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xac158c…
07-01 21:16:20	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x32f153…
07-01 21:16:05	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xbb0a4c…
07-01 21:14:25	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x56abf8…
06-29 22:02:17	Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4894f3…
06-29 22:01:26	Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xef7d1d…
06-29 22:00:40	Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4007c4…
06-29 22:00:20	Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x0c5d30…
06-28 21:15:02	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xebc877…
06-28 21:14:58	Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x32ff80…
06-28 21:14:49	Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x030f7d…
06-28 21:13:04	Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5ff6c4…
06-25 21:39:44	Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf1dc43…
06-24 20:34:13	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8fe7a1…
06-22 22:41:25	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xa90289…
06-21 23:07:37	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7d8348…
06-21 03:52:11	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x45c92f…
06-20 20:15:49	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xa84856…
06-19 19:45:35	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfd2d90…
06-18 03:37:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x114020…
06-17 05:00:29	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x01b219…
06-15 21:46:06	Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4660dc…
06-13 20:35:18	Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x86e97a…
06-12 21:45:48	will curacao reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149728	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf31f2f…
06-10 13:50:31	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x01ac9b…
06-10 13:47:40	will jordan reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149748	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x44c5af…
06-09 17:01:28	will saudi arabia reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149739	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x0c5f02…
06-08 10:22:19	will iran reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149734	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x714b82…
06-08 10:22:13	will panama reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149755	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdfcf74…
06-08 10:20:03	will haiti reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149720	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0e7a13…
06-07 19:57:46	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x94db03…
06-07 19:57:42	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfd1087…
06-07 19:56:36	will cole palmer score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1a6bc7…
06-07 19:54:15	will david raya score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xaf7bc9…
06-06 16:56:51	will fermn lpez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc5a6b1…
06-06 16:56:30	will phil foden score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5ad77b…
06-06 16:55:57	will robert lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1b5b2d…
06-06 16:55:37	will khvicha kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x43782e…
06-05 20:26:45	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7c6d8b…
06-05 20:26:34	Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x57dc93…
06-03 20:14:42	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x80cfed…
06-03 20:14:34	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x3f36d4…
06-03 20:14:28	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x745487…
06-02 20:01:03	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x333a62…