(anonymous) 0x9953a6…d151f6
bot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$25
Unrealized P&L
+$40
Hit rate
57.5%
Resolved
1,544
Trades
3,156
lifetime
Volume
$6.64K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$140
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-14
last 10-30 16:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 81 days
Categories
Crypto
64% 52% -$86
Other
25% 56% +$43
Tech
7% 48% +$36
Politics
4% 50% -$18
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk • peak 322 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +73 -$15 58¢ $43 +$58 10-23 09:19
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? Yes +47 $7 16¢ $8 +$1 10-30 15:32
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +42 $8 18¢ $7 -$1 10-24 11:45
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +6 $5 98¢ $6 +$0 09-13 13:29
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +6 $5 94¢ $6 +$0 09-08 21:32
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +58 $10 10¢ $6 -$4 10-25 15:33
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +5 $2 98¢ $5 +$3 09-27 06:27
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +5 $5 95¢ $5 $0 10-30 16:12
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5 $4 94¢ $5 +$0 09-12 04:14
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +6 $5 82¢ $5 +$0 09-10 23:47
will openai announce another millennium prize solution by december 31 2026 Yes +25 $6 18¢ $5 -$1 09-10 08:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +5 $5 82¢ $4 $0 09-12 20:02
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +5 $4 82¢ $4 +$0 10-13 16:09
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +10 $6 32¢ $3 -$3 09-04 11:21
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +5 $3 60¢ $3 +$0 09-21 18:01
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 57¢ $3 $0 09-06 20:56
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +19 $7 15¢ $3 -$4 10-22 21:31
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +29 $3 10¢ $3 +$0 08-14 06:09
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +5 $2 52¢ $3 +$0 10-15 00:25
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +6 $2 44¢ $3 +$1 09-16 01:24
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +5 $2 47¢ $2 $0 10-01 20:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +6 $2 37¢ $2 +$0 10-27 01:04
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +5 $2 40¢ $2 $0 09-21 17:30
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +29 $6 6¢ $2 -$4 10-18 03:55
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +24 $5 8¢ $2 -$3 08-16 00:31
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +727 $8 0¢ $1 -$7 09-28 11:19
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +40 $3 2¢ $1 -$2 10-26 13:52
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +1 -$4 98¢ $1 +$5 10-06 03:56
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +17 $0 0¢ $0 $0 09-08 21:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Yes +12 $0 0¢ $0 $0 10-25 22:49