Flawed-Judgment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

375

lifetime

Volume

$371

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-25 06:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

53% 0% $-0

Politics

28% 0% $-0

Crypto

15% — —

Sports

4% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	17	$18	9	9	+0	open	—	04-21 03:10
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	10	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	07-25 06:12
nothing ever happens microstrategy	10	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	03-06 09:23
Iran Nuke before 2027?	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	07-11 08:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	04-24 02:48
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	7	$7	3	4	-1	open	—	05-30 01:38
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	06-05 02:39
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	07-18 08:08
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	07-16 03:09
will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	07-07 04:50
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	01-24 06:55
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	06-13 02:19
will microstrategy announce holding 740k btc by march 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-11 07:33
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-23 09:42
will symbiotic launch a token by june 30 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-24 03:19
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-25 02:55
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-13 02:08
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-23 04:04
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-06 03:04
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-17 03:51
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-22 06:32
world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-14 06:06
another us government shutdown by february 14	4	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	02-11 00:11
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-13 06:25
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase march 10 16	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-13 06:26
will usd fall to 1pt4m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325084	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-21 07:44
Over $800M crypto hack value in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-29 04:49
will seguro win all of portugals districts	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-07 01:29
ncaa tournament no 16 seed to win a game	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-21 03:50
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-01 02:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 06:12:13	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x990500…
07-25 03:37:13	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x94fde2…
07-25 03:35:58	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x27038a…
07-24 07:54:07	will usd fall to 1pt5m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325083	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3dd15a…
07-24 07:53:39	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2303a2…
07-24 07:39:40	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfced25…
07-24 07:39:06	will usd fall to 1pt5m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325083	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x264eaa…
07-23 09:45:51	will jio platforms ipo by august 31 2026 20260629175908107	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xd7b599…
07-23 09:43:40	will xrp reach 1pt8 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x668d9a…
07-23 09:42:42	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9e70ed…
07-23 09:10:30	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xe3ee19…
07-23 09:09:09	will xrp reach 1pt8 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0cae18…
07-22 08:52:57	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x87bfec…
07-22 08:52:07	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x19c8d7…
07-22 08:40:58	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xef101b…
07-22 08:39:52	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x218139…
07-21 07:44:00	will usd fall to 1pt4m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325084	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xea4c37…
07-21 07:43:12	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xbe875d…
07-21 07:33:27	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0118ad…
07-21 07:32:21	will usd fall to 1pt4m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325084	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbe9591…
07-20 08:59:28	will deepseek ipo by december 31 2026 20260714175933544	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x547666…
07-20 08:58:54	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xdc265e…
07-20 08:48:36	will deepseek ipo by december 31 2026 20260714175933544	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x476178…
07-20 08:47:24	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1baf50…
07-18 08:09:01	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf5bcae…
07-18 08:08:25	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xdaf44f…
07-18 07:53:34	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcc9f00…
07-18 07:52:27	will jio platforms ipo by july 31 2026 20260629175908106	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x253e19…
07-18 07:50:36	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcf69ca…
07-16 03:09:41	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x92f472…
07-16 03:03:08	will jio platforms ipo by july 31 2026 20260629175908106	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe7d121…
07-16 03:01:08	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc322f7…
07-15 08:01:25	untitled market 1 20260708143739936	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x915fb4…
07-15 08:00:58	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xd2338c…
07-15 07:48:41	untitled market 1 20260708143739936	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xeea379…
07-15 07:45:58	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfd45f1…
07-14 06:06:46	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x95deea…
07-14 04:45:43	will jio platforms ipo by august 31 2026 20260629175908107	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1c943f…
07-14 04:44:50	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x789c77…
07-13 09:00:58	over 2m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325641	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x59c847…
07-13 09:00:28	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc82827…
07-13 08:49:52	over 2m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325641	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x99948c…
07-13 08:49:14	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x04ba42…
07-11 08:10:25	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x5ed8ae…
07-11 08:03:28	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1ad32b…
07-10 07:17:17	will usd fall to 1pt4m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325084	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x651926…
07-10 07:16:37	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x1f7666…
07-10 07:04:16	will usd fall to 1pt4m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325084	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x81a086…
07-10 07:03:28	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf295dd…
07-09 03:14:26	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xd957d9…
07-09 03:06:23	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x9d4b2d…
07-08 06:30:38	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xda2c7e…
07-08 06:29:41	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x1804fa…
07-08 06:20:19	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xac8e83…
07-08 06:19:19	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x2bea5d…
07-07 04:51:16	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xefae05…
07-07 04:50:40	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x93be12…
07-07 04:44:20	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xab413e…
07-07 04:43:50	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x84ea1d…
07-06 07:36:14	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x32acd0…
07-06 07:35:40	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xfd4140…
07-06 07:23:02	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa89142…
07-06 07:22:26	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xabde35…
07-04 04:34:28	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe4a35f…
07-04 04:22:53	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xabe11c…
07-03 07:26:37	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb4aecb…
07-03 07:26:13	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x53c542…
07-03 07:17:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8ff6e9…
07-03 07:17:07	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xdb4201…
07-02 06:58:55	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x384a88…
07-02 06:52:53	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xfa7ea2…
07-01 03:33:55	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x266dbd…
07-01 03:32:56	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x287e3a…
07-01 03:28:16	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x6150ac…
07-01 03:26:41	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf7bd64…
06-30 07:08:07	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5a8a54…
06-30 07:07:20	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xfae774…
06-30 07:01:29	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xce8791…
06-30 06:59:32	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8f17a0…
06-29 09:03:53	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x620f1d…
06-29 09:02:53	world cup highest scoring match record broken 20260608191032772	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1ad2d5…
06-29 08:51:41	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x42097b…
06-29 08:46:14	world cup highest scoring match record broken 20260608191032772	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfeb4b9…
06-27 04:28:05	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x25323d…
06-27 04:27:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x402a8f…
06-27 04:21:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x1818a3…
06-27 04:20:26	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x16d059…
06-26 07:24:05	will russia enter borova by june 30	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xf37aee…
06-26 07:23:26	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd592cf…
06-26 07:12:38	will russia enter borova by june 30	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7ab694…
06-26 07:11:04	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8d9d3f…
06-24 03:20:25	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xbdf931…
06-24 03:19:49	will symbiotic launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa54f4c…
06-24 03:06:01	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5fe8b9…
06-24 03:04:52	will symbiotic launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2e0dd6…
06-23 04:04:01	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2f5a96…
06-23 04:00:35	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x2ab965…
06-23 03:54:20	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xaacdf4…
06-23 03:52:25	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaccdaf…
06-22 02:13:40	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf0fbf3…