Flawed-Judgment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

304

lifetime

Volume

$301

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-01 03:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

53% — —

Politics

28% 0% $-0

Crypto

17% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	17	$18	9	9	+0	open	—	04-21 03:10
nothing ever happens microstrategy	10	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	03-06 09:23
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	04-24 02:48
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	7	$7	3	4	-1	open	—	05-30 01:38
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	06-05 02:39
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	07-01 03:32
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	01-24 06:55
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	06-13 02:19
will microstrategy announce holding 740k btc by march 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-11 07:33
will symbiotic launch a token by june 30 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-24 03:19
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-25 02:55
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-13 02:08
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-23 04:04
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-06 03:04
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-17 03:51
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-22 06:32
another us government shutdown by february 14	4	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	02-11 00:11
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-13 06:25
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase march 10 16	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-13 06:26
Over $800M crypto hack value in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-29 04:49
will seguro win all of portugals districts	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-07 01:29
ncaa tournament no 16 seed to win a game	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-21 03:50
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-01 02:19
will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-18 06:36
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-05 09:58
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	-0	open	—	06-12 04:33
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$2	1	1	-0	open	—	06-27 04:27
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-01 04:31
ukraine strikes another tanker in black sea by march 31 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-04 01:55
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-30 03:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 03:33:55	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x266dbd…
07-01 03:32:56	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x287e3a…
07-01 03:28:16	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x6150ac…
07-01 03:26:41	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf7bd64…
06-30 07:08:07	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5a8a54…
06-30 07:07:20	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xfae774…
06-30 07:01:29	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xce8791…
06-30 06:59:32	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8f17a0…
06-29 09:03:53	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x620f1d…
06-29 09:02:53	world cup highest scoring match record broken 20260608191032772	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1ad2d5…
06-29 08:51:41	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x42097b…
06-29 08:46:14	world cup highest scoring match record broken 20260608191032772	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfeb4b9…
06-27 04:28:05	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x25323d…
06-27 04:27:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x402a8f…
06-27 04:21:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x1818a3…
06-27 04:20:26	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x16d059…
06-26 07:24:05	will russia enter borova by june 30	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xf37aee…
06-26 07:23:26	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd592cf…
06-26 07:12:38	will russia enter borova by june 30	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7ab694…
06-26 07:11:04	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8d9d3f…
06-24 03:20:25	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xbdf931…
06-24 03:19:49	will symbiotic launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa54f4c…
06-24 03:06:01	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5fe8b9…
06-24 03:04:52	will symbiotic launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2e0dd6…
06-23 04:04:01	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2f5a96…
06-23 04:00:35	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x2ab965…
06-23 03:54:20	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xaacdf4…
06-23 03:52:25	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaccdaf…
06-22 02:13:40	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf0fbf3…
06-22 02:12:56	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x935947…
06-22 02:04:59	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xad331b…
06-22 02:01:29	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x17282a…
06-21 04:49:05	will solana reach 110 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x86d330…
06-21 04:48:23	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6f0a8d…
06-21 04:39:37	will solana reach 110 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x27e874…
06-21 04:37:05	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1b7229…
06-18 06:37:40	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xffed33…
06-18 06:36:49	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x4bda9e…
06-18 04:53:56	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xedda3a…
06-18 04:51:46	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x9e5b66…
06-17 03:52:05	will symbiotic launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2821ec…
06-17 03:51:44	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x656412…
06-17 03:41:48	will symbiotic launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb42a15…
06-17 03:40:03	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x878b92…
06-16 02:29:43	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4bcf8f…
06-16 02:29:03	will bitcoin reach 90k in june 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x35f7be…
06-16 02:22:39	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa254b2…
06-16 02:21:43	will bitcoin reach 90k in june 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1afe6c…
06-15 04:57:30	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 9 15	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfdf4e4…
06-13 02:19:00	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x4d7a86…
06-13 02:13:33	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x73ed68…
06-12 04:33:18	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6a5dc1…
06-12 03:52:03	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x27e9d2…
06-11 03:39:24	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x49c0b2…
06-11 03:25:19	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x12da4f…
06-10 03:44:48	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x488082…
06-10 03:43:37	will north korea recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x816865…
06-10 03:34:52	will north korea recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x356a01…
06-10 03:33:09	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x1813fe…
06-06 03:04:48	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x3fcdcd…
06-06 02:56:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc163a9…
06-05 02:40:27	gmgn fdv above 4b one day after launch	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa6bb39…
06-05 02:39:31	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x8db9e3…
06-05 02:33:40	gmgn fdv above 4b one day after launch	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7382e7…
06-05 02:31:51	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x2ac42d…
06-04 07:07:09	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9b8ede…
06-04 04:53:25	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd7a47a…
06-03 06:18:45	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb8d5c9…
06-03 06:14:08	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb292a9…
06-02 02:58:07	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x74beb3…
06-02 02:44:58	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x092a33…
06-01 04:31:00	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6b114b…
06-01 03:52:14	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf4c217…
05-30 01:38:11	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7df5c5…
05-29 03:04:25	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x728632…
05-29 03:03:29	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8069cf…
05-29 02:50:23	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa93dc3…
05-29 02:45:11	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x19d1db…
05-28 02:43:41	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0352e2…
05-28 02:33:23	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa6a119…
05-27 07:57:39	Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x07be8f…
05-27 07:26:32	Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x1a16d5…
05-26 04:37:41	Will Clavicular be banned from Kick by May 31?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x02097d…
05-26 04:37:11	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x7fb14d…
05-26 04:11:26	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x42e548…
05-26 04:09:55	Will Clavicular be banned from Kick by May 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf7d6ec…
05-25 03:43:16	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x37a9e1…
05-25 03:26:49	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0408fb…
05-22 06:32:53	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x878acc…
05-21 10:29:44	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xff8540…
05-19 08:12:58	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x48d1a9…
05-19 07:49:22	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3396d0…
05-18 08:56:59	Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x025e75…
05-18 08:38:17	Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf5edf1…
05-16 08:52:38	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x146861…
05-16 08:31:52	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd43cbf…
05-14 06:28:19	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x93f6c9…
05-14 06:26:20	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xec1720…
05-08 06:58:53	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x65cd3e…
05-08 06:55:53	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x65c5b6…