Other-Toenail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

83.4%

Resolved

Trades

422

lifetime

Volume

$2.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-01 09:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

58% 40% +$5

Politics

42% 50% +$1

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	No		+53	$1	1¢	$0	$-1	06-30 14:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	15	$918	2,482	4,454	-1,971	open	—	03-20 10:13
will the us invade iran by march 31	8	$222	1,052	1,008	+44	open	—	03-30 09:26
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	34	$172	1,650	572	+1,078	open	—	03-08 07:45
us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	10	$56	519	270	+249	open	—	02-06 07:21
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	11	$52	1,947	1,947	+0	open	—	02-22 19:06
will witkoff meet with iranian officials by february 28	5	$49	193	116	+77	open	—	02-06 20:58
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	5	$38	740	740	+0	open	—	03-05 16:46
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?	2	$30	44	44	+0	open	—	04-05 13:42
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	5	$24	46	34	+11	open	—	02-06 18:37
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	4	$19	343	343	+0	open	—	03-07 19:51
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$18	21	21	+0	open	—	02-13 06:21
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	5	$16	582	0	+582	open	—	03-08 18:35
gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	3	$16	22	22	+0	open	—	01-29 12:14
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 16	3	$15	18	18	+0	open	—	03-12 12:33
will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	2	$12	17	17	+0	open	—	06-17 22:28
us forces enter iran by january 31	2	$12	114	86	+28	open	—	01-27 21:44
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	6	$11	186	0	+186	open	—	01-31 13:33
us x iran meeting by february 28 2026	5	$10	113	18	+95	open	—	02-16 13:16
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1	$10	33	0	+33	open	—	03-08 11:34
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	5	$9	50	50	+0	open	—	03-12 13:27
cbb morgst howrd 2026 01 24	2	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	01-24 22:55
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	2	$9	23	23	+0	open	—	06-17 23:12
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	3	$8	312	100	+212	No	+$4	04-19 20:16
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	7	$8	200	200	+0	No	+$4	03-09 12:28
military action against iran ends on march 28 2026	4	$8	243	243	+0	open	—	03-24 15:14
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	4	$8	39	25	+14	open	—	05-12 07:00
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	4	$8	118	970	-852	open	—	06-22 11:09
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$7	55	55	+0	open	—	04-17 20:13
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 31 483 852 436 833 347 948	2	$7	24	24	+0	open	—	03-08 19:40
GTA VI released before June 2026?	2	$7	111	111	+0	open	—	02-01 17:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 09:18:56	taylor swift x travis kelce get married by july 3	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x2f4e32…
07-01 09:10:11	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 4 2026 20260630182730882	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x498534…
06-30 14:12:13	Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	No	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x8a903a…
06-30 14:10:46	will jd vance attend nato summit	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xe87961…
06-30 14:09:10	will marco rubio attend nato summit	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x093117…
06-28 20:28:14	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in july 2026 20260626153701906	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x7e9130…
06-22 11:09:11	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	SELL	243	0¢	$1	0x95a211…
06-20 22:10:44	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x8ed47d…
06-17 23:13:23	will masoud pezeshkian sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950072	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2c0363…
06-17 23:12:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	SELL	23	28¢	$7	0xac8e73…
06-17 22:28:56	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	SELL	17	69¢	$11	0x6d050e…
06-16 10:34:27	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf6e1f1…
06-16 10:30:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x5514fe…
06-16 10:25:01	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	SELL	728	1¢	$5	0x50742a…
06-10 21:13:57	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0x63da90…
06-10 21:13:24	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x5b7f58…
06-10 16:53:43	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	BUY	63	2¢	$1	0xe8bb69…
06-07 20:09:30	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0xb01fdd…
06-06 08:47:48	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	105	1¢	$1	0xfb2392…
06-06 08:47:03	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0x425599…
05-22 07:07:14	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x3eafb4…
05-21 09:17:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	25	6¢	$2	0x1c74e6…
05-20 23:12:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	No	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x0044cb…
05-15 11:50:06	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x1615b1…
05-14 21:27:23	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0xce188e…
05-12 20:22:04	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x267f9e…
05-12 20:20:54	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$1	0x2ba9b3…
05-12 07:00:31	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x288833…
05-11 14:42:03	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x141d4d…
05-11 08:22:45	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	28	11¢	$3	0xa8f75a…
05-09 20:25:03	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0x5ceee1…
05-09 04:15:30	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0x7b183d…
05-07 23:39:17	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	9¢	$1	0x16465f…
05-07 18:44:03	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x9321c0…
05-05 07:54:50	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x0fb2e2…
05-05 03:34:20	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0x399328…
05-05 03:23:56	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0x3d3a53…
05-05 02:35:48	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0xe69454…
05-04 14:12:12	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x17e8b5…
05-04 11:03:44	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x90cb23…
05-04 02:21:26	Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	5¢	$1	0x74097c…
05-03 18:27:18	Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	5¢	$2	0xaab204…
05-02 01:13:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xeb1db3…
05-01 19:11:52	Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x642f72…
05-01 16:50:50	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x3662cd…
05-01 16:50:34	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xe79822…
05-01 16:50:30	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	47	2¢	$1	0x9f8f35…
05-01 16:49:18	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 2, 2026?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xe8d237…
05-01 16:45:28	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x9faed8…
05-01 13:03:32	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x3876cc…
04-30 05:39:36	Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xea1aac…
04-29 19:17:48	Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xe61496…
04-29 17:51:54	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xee56a6…
04-27 20:57:58	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Raptors	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0x3e2924…
04-27 20:50:30	Will King Charles say "Ballroom" during the joint meeting of Congress?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x9f9bc0…
04-27 20:47:44	Will King Charles say "Historic" or "History" or "Historical" during the joint meeting of Congress?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x37d342…
04-27 20:45:30	Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9370ce…
04-27 20:44:26	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xf3dcac…
04-27 08:37:28	Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	BUY	54	3¢	$1	0x2f154c…
04-25 20:35:14	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf96a65…
04-25 20:31:06	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	SELL	62	0¢	$0	0xdb3c11…
04-25 10:28:46	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8e0bd9…
04-24 09:32:36	Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x309459…
04-22 20:33:58	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x10c089…
04-19 21:35:08	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x9b7d66…
04-19 21:10:30	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Raptors	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x23badb…
04-19 20:16:10	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	212	0¢	$1	0x7fbf2e…
04-19 20:15:12	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x2154a7…
04-19 20:05:44	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd1008e…
04-19 19:47:20	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x54f963…
04-17 20:13:58	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	5¢	$3	0x52a539…
04-11 19:36:27	Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x5c9f3d…
04-11 19:22:51	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xadd44b…
04-09 19:41:39	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	1¢	$1	0xb39ebf…
04-07 23:02:31	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x4ee16c…
04-07 12:08:03	will trump praise allah again by april 15	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x3d3792…
04-07 10:20:27	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x780a3d…
04-07 10:18:27	Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?	No	SELL	18	19¢	$3	0xa763c6…
04-05 17:58:25	Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?	No	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x308c4a…
04-05 16:13:07	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	8¢	$4	0x0ac216…
04-05 13:42:25	US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	44	44¢	$19	0xf61f5f…
03-30 10:38:50	will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 30 2026	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x222ca2…
03-30 10:31:32	israel military action against fordow nuclear facility by april 15	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xa5c913…
03-30 09:26:36	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	44	4¢	$2	0x19b2bd…
03-26 01:18:01	US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	44	25¢	$11	0x965b69…
03-24 15:15:19	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	No	SELL	22	17¢	$4	0xb8a4f2…
03-24 15:14:13	military action against iran ends on march 28 2026	Yes	SELL	121	2¢	$2	0xa6758f…
03-23 08:33:23	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xbfcb14…
03-20 10:14:55	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,008	14¢	$136	0xf083fa…
03-20 10:13:41	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,031	3¢	$27	0x077d30…
03-20 10:00:35	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	No	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x9ad5b3…
03-20 08:51:11	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	2,000	3¢	$56	0xeec075…
03-17 10:20:29	military action against iran ends on march 28 2026	Yes	SELL	121	2¢	$2	0x74a8e6…
03-16 18:45:53	military action against iran ends on march 28 2026	Yes	BUY	125	2¢	$2	0x264f17…
03-13 10:06:53	military action against iran ends on march 28 2026	Yes	BUY	118	2¢	$2	0x7376e1…
03-12 13:27:57	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0x1e301a…
03-12 13:25:57	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2e144c…
03-12 12:33:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 16	Yes	SELL	18	70¢	$12	0xbef85c…
03-12 07:14:01	will khamenei tweet again on march 12 2026 799	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xfba1a1…
03-11 16:25:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 16	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xa0f377…