Imperturbable-Spelt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.77K

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

2.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,249

lifetime

Volume

$61.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

$57

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 06-14 02:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

51% — —

Politics

41% 40% $-1,656

Crypto

8% 38% $-113

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 183 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No		+82	$50	66¢	$54	+$4	05-29 02:43
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No		+6	$4	62¢	$4	$-1	06-14 02:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	116	$12.0K	63,255	64,672	-1,417	Yes	$-1,458	04-14 20:19
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	4	$5.2K	3,988	3,561	+427	open	—	03-28 22:05
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$5.2K	6,067	6,067	+0	open	—	03-18 21:12
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	29	$3.2K	2,897	723	+2,174	open	—	04-11 12:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	28	$2.0K	1,054	1,316	-262	open	—	04-24 12:36
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	14	$1.8K	1,671	361	+1,309	open	—	04-05 22:59
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	26	$1.8K	1,349	1,349	+0	open	—	04-22 18:43
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	22	$1.6K	5,740	1,000	+4,740	open	—	04-08 21:56
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	8	$1.6K	1,286	558	+728	open	—	04-11 12:16
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	8	$1.3K	600,851	850	+600,001	open	—	04-08 23:29
will tisza win at least 100 seats	12	$1.3K	2,824	1,089	+1,735	open	—	04-09 07:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	14	$943	1,675	0	+1,675	open	—	04-05 17:18
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	30	$911	204,017	1,322	+202,696	open	—	04-08 22:29
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$887	1,477	1,477	+0	open	—	03-20 15:29
will fidesz kdnp win at least 80 seats	15	$757	934	714	+220	open	—	04-12 15:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	3	$702	844	0	+844	open	—	04-05 16:35
Netanyahu out by April 30?	8	$700	705	0	+705	open	—	04-17 02:00
Trump out as President by April 30?	7	$675	680	0	+680	open	—	04-17 02:44
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$600	310	310	+0	open	—	04-02 16:03
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	1	$590	1,157	0	+1,157	open	—	03-15 21:59
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	1	$500	583	0	+583	open	—	03-15 15:05
GTA VI released before June 2026?	7	$500	509	0	+509	open	—	04-13 22:44
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$494	298	298	+0	open	—	04-02 16:03
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	5	$450	467	0	+467	open	—	04-14 02:40
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$401	774	774	+0	open	—	03-16 11:10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	1	$400	606	0	+606	open	—	03-30 23:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	2	$398	500	492	+8	open	—	04-05 13:03
highest temperature in shanghai on april 3 2026 16c	3	$350	442	430	+12	open	—	04-02 15:59
US bank failure by April 30?	3	$309	193	192	+1	open	—	04-05 14:47
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	6	$300	331	0	+331	open	—	04-13 18:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 02:05:09	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x427273…
06-13 03:09:00	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x09df58…
05-29 02:43:56	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xd3c458…
05-18 17:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	47	52¢	$25	0x80de51…
05-17 20:01:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	40	61¢	$25	0x80412c…
05-17 14:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x95f992…
05-17 13:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x1b42f3…
05-17 13:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	0	59¢	$0	0xa19379…
05-17 13:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x746147…
05-14 01:45:01	Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?	Yes	BUY	17	31¢	$5	0xd6403f…
05-14 01:26:28	Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?	Yes	BUY	33	31¢	$10	0x6c2305…
05-13 23:50:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x5f3ac9…
05-13 23:37:07	Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?	Yes	BUY	25	73¢	$18	0x4fb713…
05-13 23:34:25	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	38	70¢	$27	0xc05847…
05-05 16:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x5971fe…
05-05 16:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x85f3c3…
05-05 15:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x67004e…
05-05 15:31:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0xc053d5…
05-05 15:31:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x87a13f…
05-05 15:31:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x12f735…
05-05 15:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	46	55¢	$26	0xabab44…
05-05 15:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x8100e8…
05-05 15:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x3da479…
05-05 15:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x78c61c…
05-05 14:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	91	52¢	$47	0x3816f6…
05-05 14:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x646e78…
05-05 14:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	68	53¢	$36	0xa4815d…
05-05 14:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x98c999…
05-05 14:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x73759c…
05-04 20:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0xf8ee02…
05-01 20:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0xa549cb…
05-01 19:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0xad95e4…
05-01 18:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	85	58¢	$49	0x76a0de…
05-01 17:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	82	60¢	$49	0xe0fa23…
04-30 20:46:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x4d74c7…
04-30 19:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0xc01da9…
04-30 19:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0xe7f809…
04-30 12:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0xda6104…
04-30 11:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	114	42¢	$48	0x05c67b…
04-30 11:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xe6e8cb…
04-30 11:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0xa87f94…
04-30 11:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	116	42¢	$49	0xeaeecd…
04-30 10:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x2683e1…
04-30 09:46:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x8d9ddc…
04-29 23:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0x529bfc…
04-29 18:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	135	37¢	$50	0x3b31ef…
04-29 17:46:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x690019…
04-29 17:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xf43c1b…
04-29 13:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	107	45¢	$48	0xde7ec3…
04-29 13:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xe91b2a…
04-29 13:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x1b582e…
04-29 12:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0xe1c775…
04-29 12:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x7250d6…
04-29 12:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	49¢	$8	0x4bbfd5…
04-29 12:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0x0f8601…
04-28 22:16:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	48¢	$8	0xb224b0…
04-28 22:16:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	55	48¢	$26	0xaa265c…
04-28 22:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	17	48¢	$8	0x97278f…
04-28 22:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0x5cd9d2…
04-28 22:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x0fe6b1…
04-28 21:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	32	46¢	$15	0x1d3c8f…
04-28 21:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	21	46¢	$10	0xaabf99…
04-28 21:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x1a0b6a…
04-28 21:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x114063…
04-28 21:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x03d181…
04-28 21:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x7ea5b4…
04-28 21:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x1712e0…
04-28 21:03:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x762779…
04-28 21:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0xa7a5e1…
04-28 20:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	105	47¢	$49	0xee1e5d…
04-28 20:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	99	39¢	$39	0x1ed1d2…
04-28 20:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf50b6f…
04-28 20:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0xf0a22b…
04-28 20:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xcc0b5e…
04-28 20:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	34	52¢	$18	0x98f33b…
04-28 20:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x8b8a75…
04-28 20:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	52¢	$1	0x75352b…
04-28 20:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x6b1465…
04-28 20:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x4e187e…
04-28 20:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0x4ae8fd…
04-28 20:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x335a84…
04-28 16:31:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	101	50¢	$50	0x23b3d6…
04-28 16:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xc70cba…
04-28 16:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x8338dc…
04-28 16:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x52a03d…
04-28 16:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	13	49¢	$6	0xf0a5e2…
04-28 16:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xe310b3…
04-28 16:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	49¢	$0	0xe0a050…
04-28 16:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x677405…
04-28 16:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2cdc21…
04-28 16:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0x4c14b7…
04-28 15:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xf16f11…
04-28 15:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	28	48¢	$13	0xd0af4c…
04-28 15:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	59	48¢	$28	0x988a98…
04-28 15:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0xe45471…
04-28 02:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	75	50¢	$37	0xa76826…
04-28 02:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xfcd3c8…
04-28 02:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6f7674…
04-28 02:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x634e89…
04-28 02:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe3f20f…