Realized P&L
-$115
Unrealized P&L
+$17
Hit rate
66.4%
Resolved
3,123
Trades
10,233
lifetime
Volume
$19.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$219
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-23
last 11-02 21:04
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 228 days
Categories
Other
69% 72% +$61
Politics
30% 60% -$147
Sports
1% 41% -$24
Tech
0% 50% -$6
Crypto
0% 62% +$7
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$6
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 230 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -31 -$29 96¢ $-30 $0 10-23 22:00
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +28 $25 92¢ $26 +$1 10-03 06:54
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +30 $23 86¢ $25 +$2 10-09 20:32
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +11 $10 96¢ $11 +$1 09-29 21:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +17 $7 60¢ $10 +$3 10-25 01:08
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +9 $8 91¢ $8 +$1 09-28 13:04
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +9 $8 96¢ $8 $0 09-15 17:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +9 $6 84¢ $7 +$2 09-05 18:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +9 $7 76¢ $7 +$0 10-28 22:08
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +7 $6 96¢ $7 +$1 05-19 20:53
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No +7 $6 96¢ $7 +$0 08-05 17:04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -7 -$5 82¢ $-6 -$1 04-30 14:41
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? Yes +6 $6 90¢ $6 +$0 11-02 06:28
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +6 $5 94¢ $6 +$0 10-26 01:30
israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026 No +6 $4 97¢ $5 +$1 08-22 07:06
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 98¢ $5 +$2 10-09 19:17
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -6 -$6 94¢ $-5 +$1 07-24 22:34
will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date No +5 $5 86¢ $5 +$0 08-22 12:29
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +5 $3 92¢ $4 +$1 09-06 21:15
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +6 $4 74¢ $4 +$0 11-02 15:30
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No -4 -$3 97¢ $-3 $0 06-12 08:48
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No +3 $3 97¢ $3 +$0 08-21 17:43
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +4 $3 80¢ $3 +$0 10-20 05:45
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +4 $3 76¢ $3 +$0 11-01 17:50
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +3 $2 98¢ $3 +$0 08-21 06:16
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? No +3 $2 96¢ $2 +$0 09-17 03:25
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +3 $2 82¢ $2 +$1 10-27 20:09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? Yes +3 $2 83¢ $2 $0 11-02 15:30
russia military action against eu country by december 31 2026 No +2 $2 94¢ $2 +$0 10-14 20:23
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +2 $2 92¢ $2 +$0 10-18 23:33