Thorny-Oversight — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$402

Unrealized P&L

-$1.44K

Hit rate

79.4%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

220

3,145 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$12.4K

$402.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$128

Open exposure

$1.02K

17 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 11-02 17:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 108 days

Categories

Tech

42% 88% +$17,422

Politics

35% 62% +$592

Other

14% 51% -$892

Sports

5% 50% -$451

Crypto

4% 50% +$1,129

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$76

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	+415	$246	88¢	$363	+$117	11-02 17:00
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	No	+215	$181	96¢	$207	+$27	09-19 09:36
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	+148	$123	74¢	$110	-$13	11-02 14:35
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	No	+135	$90	66¢	$88	-$2	10-24 13:53
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	+127	$90	55¢	$70	-$20	10-24 14:30
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	+76	$68	91¢	$69	+$1	10-29 17:46
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	No	+52	$45	88¢	$46	+$1	10-31 17:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+31	$1,585	82¢	$25	-$1,560	10-29 17:54
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	+18	$5	62¢	$11	+$6	10-30 17:18
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+20	$6	32¢	$6	+$0	10-16 18:58
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+8	$5	74¢	$6	+$1	10-21 16:29
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+13	$5	41¢	$5	$0	10-20 14:00
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+16	$4	29¢	$5	+$0	10-12 13:20
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	+28	$5	14¢	$4	-$1	10-30 23:45
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	+10	$4	38¢	$4	$0	11-02 15:26
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	+5	$2	34¢	$2	-$1	10-31 17:11
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$1	20¢	$1	$0	10-31 17:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 starship 563	32	$102.1K	105,098	2,005	+103,093	No	+$3,193	09-15 07:36
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?	206	$26.4K	34,935	50	+34,885	Yes	+$8,526	07-24 18:52
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	111	$25.0K	16,775	16,744	+31	open	—	10-29 17:54
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	116	$24.3K	13,716	13,716	+0	open	—	06-24 14:43
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$18.2K	9,340	9,340	+0	No	+$101	06-28 17:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	26	$18.0K	13,520	5,000	+8,520	No	+$477	05-11 06:35
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	17	$15.6K	14,873	1,843	+13,030	No	+$1,130	06-02 21:44
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	79	$14.1K	18,176	0	+18,176	Yes	+$4,113	09-28 12:28
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	18	$13.0K	13,000	0	+13,000	Yes	+$26	06-05 20:16
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$10.0K	10,870	0	+10,870	No	+$870	06-07 18:31
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	78	$9.7K	11,311	15	+11,296	Yes	+$1,623	05-22 23:56
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?	27	$9.0K	9,163	0	+9,163	No	+$123	08-24 09:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	156	$7.1K	5,924	5,924	+0	Yes	+$47	06-16 14:40
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	14	$4.3K	4,726	0	+4,726	No	+$382	06-16 20:52
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	33	$4.3K	4,638	0	+4,638	Yes	+$343	05-31 16:11
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	11	$3.3K	1,839	1,839	+0	No	+$260	06-12 23:32
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	28	$3.0K	2,123	2,123	+0	open	—	10-28 06:50
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	38	$2.9K	2,040	2,040	+0	Yes	-$239	06-10 18:55
will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	77	$2.5K	2,746	0	+2,746	No	+$240	08-22 09:40
New pandemic in 2026?	10	$2.2K	1,204	1,204	+0	open	—	07-27 16:38
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	17	$2.2K	1,779	1,364	+415	open	—	11-02 17:00
will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	18	$2.2K	1,479	1,429	+50	No	+$162	08-01 15:05
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	27	$2.1K	2,296	2,296	+0	No	-$322	07-31 15:13
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$2.1K	1,184	1,184	+0	Yes	+$3	06-07 21:29
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	1	$2.0K	2,100	0	+2,100	No	+$67	04-27 16:09
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	3	$2.0K	2,051	0	+2,051	No	+$51	06-09 22:18
will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	41	$2.0K	1,378	1,378	+0	Yes	+$162	07-24 22:56
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	22	$2.0K	2,972	2,972	+0	Yes	-$601	05-22 23:52
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	5	$1.8K	990	990	+0	open	—	10-26 20:00
Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027?	21	$1.6K	2,013	297	+1,715	Yes	-$1,206	08-11 14:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 17:00:33	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	105	86¢	$90	0x894973…
11-02 15:26:48	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x88f275…
11-02 14:35:51	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	11	79¢	$9	0x8a899b…
11-02 10:50:36	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xaf3ba9…
11-02 10:09:55	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0xdcf021…
11-02 09:06:09	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	15	88¢	$13	0xefaa5e…
11-02 09:06:06	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0x139b9b…
11-02 08:25:19	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0xd8ae8a…
11-02 02:12:12	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x476e50…
11-02 01:43:25	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$1	0xd94f8b…
11-01 21:37:18	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x1889a6…
11-01 21:37:16	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	3	82¢	$3	0xb6a23e…
11-01 21:19:15	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xf1cdce…
11-01 17:30:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	No	BUY	19	86¢	$16	0x2cbcdf…
11-01 16:11:13	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	310	87¢	$270	0xf60f4e…
11-01 16:02:09	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xfe9bb1…
11-01 14:34:15	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	108	84¢	$91	0x2769eb…
11-01 14:26:00	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x862441…
10-31 18:21:06	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0xa750bc…
10-31 18:21:04	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	16	72¢	$12	0x9fca22…
10-31 18:21:04	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	18	71¢	$13	0x20051e…
10-31 17:37:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	No	BUY	64	85¢	$55	0x51d46a…
10-31 17:34:00	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	8¢	$3	0x5232a8…
10-31 17:18:48	Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	No	BUY	52	87¢	$45	0x105118…
10-31 17:15:36	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1a18db…
10-31 17:11:36	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x8ce2b4…
10-31 17:03:31	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0x07c9f4…
10-31 16:46:19	Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x2b2f70…
10-30 23:45:55	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x7c2a4b…
10-30 21:32:55	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	24	18¢	$4	0x7c8cf8…
10-30 19:03:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	107	84¢	$90	0xe21895…
10-30 19:01:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	56	85¢	$48	0xf30634…
10-30 18:52:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x27dbbf…
10-30 17:35:31	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	10	73¢	$8	0x21f3e3…
10-30 17:18:36	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	29¢	$5	0xa4d2e2…
10-29 20:54:21	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	5¢	$1	0xc5850c…
10-29 17:56:25	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	106	5¢	$5	0xad2362…
10-29 17:54:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x1baa3e…
10-29 17:46:52	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xb5baa9…
10-29 17:44:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x2f96c8…
10-29 17:36:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0xf0beca…
10-28 19:48:31	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xd7710d…
10-28 17:37:07	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x6ca8ea…
10-28 17:18:25	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	SELL	46	93¢	$43	0x703878…
10-28 16:53:35	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0x3a1524…
10-28 15:55:07	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x6edda8…
10-28 15:52:50	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x07206f…
10-28 09:13:55	Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?	No	SELL	55	95¢	$52	0x16c76c…
10-28 06:50:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	919	60¢	$551	0xddbe84…
10-28 05:57:13	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	326	72¢	$235	0x5bbe3e…
10-28 04:54:22	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	9	72¢	$7	0x4cffc3…
10-28 01:20:36	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0xd17a1d…
10-27 21:06:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	145	68¢	$99	0xa44264…
10-27 20:51:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	188	69¢	$130	0x23eba7…
10-27 20:46:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	59	70¢	$41	0x96ef43…
10-27 20:46:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	142	70¢	$99	0x0c0f57…
10-27 20:45:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	85	70¢	$60	0x8b90bc…
10-27 20:43:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	120	70¢	$84	0xff22c3…
10-27 20:43:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	180	70¢	$126	0x85e27d…
10-27 20:32:33	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	38	60¢	$23	0x08be75…
10-27 20:32:12	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x5a9f12…
10-27 20:15:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	860	75¢	$645	0x57e2b2…
10-27 20:08:06	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	247	10¢	$25	0x82c151…
10-27 19:05:09	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	12	72¢	$8	0xdece5e…
10-27 17:55:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	234	77¢	$180	0x7b9459…
10-27 17:17:20	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	347	71¢	$246	0xe1b612…
10-27 17:03:05	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	25	73¢	$18	0xbb8931…
10-27 17:02:18	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	222	73¢	$162	0xd34467…
10-27 15:07:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0xb25b99…
10-27 14:28:33	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xd27540…
10-27 14:10:26	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	263	78¢	$205	0xe8c5b1…
10-27 09:32:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	247	73¢	$180	0x5accf9…
10-27 08:50:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	36	72¢	$26	0x38e222…
10-27 08:49:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	107	72¢	$77	0x2f91b3…
10-27 08:48:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	107	72¢	$77	0x1cea27…
10-27 06:29:44	Will Lionel Messi rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x2dcc96…
10-27 06:29:27	Will Lionel Messi rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	No	SELL	199	71¢	$142	0xf2d665…
10-27 06:29:21	Will Lionel Messi rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	No	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0x10a30c…
10-26 22:39:15	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	SELL	179	87¢	$156	0x1196fa…
10-26 20:56:50	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x85efd3…
10-26 20:00:05	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	143	91¢	$130	0x8fe836…
10-26 18:57:29	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0x097955…
10-26 18:56:02	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	375	91¢	$341	0x2c658f…
10-26 18:10:11	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	460	91¢	$419	0x28efb1…
10-26 17:06:50	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	SELL	19	87¢	$16	0x674175…
10-26 15:39:32	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xfa7826…
10-26 15:39:32	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x8ab895…
10-26 15:39:32	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0x1c909a…
10-26 15:02:54	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	29	31¢	$9	0xff17c9…
10-26 14:29:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	137	75¢	$103	0x4fdd25…
10-26 14:06:12	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	29	71¢	$21	0x099536…
10-26 14:04:36	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	82¢	$67	0xa75c91…
10-26 14:04:36	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	274	82¢	$224	0x02263c…
10-25 23:48:29	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	11	67¢	$7	0x7f18a4…
10-25 23:03:11	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xa53d98…
10-25 22:21:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x42cc7a…
10-25 21:42:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xa45dc6…
10-25 21:42:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	91	89¢	$81	0xe62dca…
10-25 20:22:47	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x25dcb7…
10-25 15:22:03	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	16	44¢	$7	0xb088d2…