Thorny-Oversight 0xa62abc…3aa8ff Create alert
whale hot 5W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$17.8K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.43K
Hit rate
92.3%
Resolved
335
Trades
3,192
lifetime
Volume
$404.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$127
Open exposure
$2.28K
28 positions
First seen
2026-04-15
last 11-07 20:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 112 days
Categories
Tech
42% 88% +$17,422
Politics
35% 62% +$623
Other
14% 51% -$889
Sports
5% 50% -$451
Crypto
4% 50% +$1,129
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$76
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No +569 $501 89¢ $506 +$6 11-07 16:04
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +415 $246 90¢ $376 +$130 11-02 17:00
Will James Comey be arrested before 2027? No +263 $205 92¢ $241 +$35 10-27 14:10
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No +215 $181 97¢ $208 +$27 09-19 09:36
Trump goes to space in 2026? No +180 $173 99¢ $178 +$4 05-27 21:00
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? Yes +231 $180 76¢ $177 -$3 11-03 15:58
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026? No +204 $181 57¢ $116 -$65 11-04 14:43
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? No +135 $90 76¢ $102 +$11 10-24 13:53
Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode? Yes +364 $100 22¢ $82 -$18 11-05 15:48
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +127 $90 64¢ $82 -$8 10-24 14:30
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +76 $68 94¢ $71 +$3 10-29 17:46
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? No +52 $45 91¢ $47 +$2 10-31 17:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +31 $1,585 90¢ $28 -$1,557 10-29 17:54
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +40 $14 60¢ $24 +$10 11-05 16:24
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown? Yes +20 $6 61¢ $12 +$6 10-01 19:57
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +13 $5 34¢ $4 -$1 10-20 14:00
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? No +5 $2 87¢ $4 +$3 10-22 05:49
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +10 $4 40¢ $4 +$0 11-07 20:07
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +30 $4 12¢ $3 $0 11-04 16:24
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? Yes +20 $3 15¢ $3 $0 11-06 20:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes +25 $3 11¢ $3 $0 11-06 19:07
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes +28 $5 8¢ $2 -$3 10-30 23:45
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +10 $3 18¢ $2 -$1 11-04 16:35
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by November 30, 2026? Yes +10 $1 12¢ $1 $0 11-07 19:58
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? No +10 $1 8¢ $1 $0 11-07 20:02
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +16 $4 1¢ $0 -$4 10-12 13:20
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? No +30 $4 0¢ $0 -$4 11-04 16:31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026? No +11 $5 0¢ $0 -$5 11-05 16:20