Official-Intention — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$923

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

4.6%

Resolved

2,575

Trades

39,668

lifetime

Volume

$32.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 07-01 22:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

77% 2% $-882

Other

19% 50% $-41

Politics

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	6	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-23 09:43
cbb ucla uconn 2026 03 22	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-22 14:56
cbb uk iowast 2026 03 22 spread home 4pt5	10	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-22 16:11
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	9	$757	500	500	+0	open	—	03-24 07:25
fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	2	$688	439	439	+0	open	—	07-01 22:50
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	8	$661	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	03-24 11:07
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	2	$552	400	400	+0	open	—	03-31 13:49
will valve add cache to the map pool by april 30 2026	14	$328	3,550	3,550	+0	open	—	04-29 05:27
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$305	500	500	+0	open	—	03-31 13:49
btc updown 15m 1772053200	2	$252	0	500	-500	open	—	02-26 15:46
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$180	200	200	+0	open	—	04-13 15:21
Yellow FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$180	250	0	+250	Yes	$-180	03-08 17:08
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5	1	$168	200	0	+200	open	—	05-30 17:33
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	3	$166	200	200	+0	open	—	03-31 13:48
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	2	$136	200	200	+0	open	—	04-04 22:15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$122	200	200	+0	open	—	04-05 06:48
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	20	$113	2,300	2,300	+0	open	—	04-18 18:41
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$106	260	60	+200	open	—	03-29 04:03
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	8	$105	100	100	+0	open	—	05-30 16:56
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$83	100	100	+0	open	—	07-01 21:57
btc updown 15m 1770397200	2	$81	0	158	-158	open	—	02-06 17:09
btc updown 15m 1770395400	2	$79	0	154	-154	open	—	02-06 16:31
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?	1	$75	0	100	-100	open	—	07-01 05:47
military action against iran ends by march 31 2026	2	$74	50	50	+0	open	—	03-23 11:16
btc updown 15m 1771964100	1	$69	0	70	-70	open	—	02-24 20:27
Will "Project Hail Mary" make it into the IMDb Top 250?	1	$67	100	0	+100	open	—	03-17 11:21
will iran strike oman again in march	5	$65	50	50	+0	open	—	04-04 13:07
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?	3	$65	150	150	+0	open	—	02-15 15:17
cbb stjohn kan 2026 03 22 spread away 3pt5	3	$62	62	62	+0	open	—	03-22 18:33
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$60	600	0	+600	open	—	04-07 23:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 22:50:28	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Belgium	SELL	439	100¢	$438	0x11140a…
07-01 22:03:56	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	439	57¢	$250	0x6a7b9a…
07-01 21:57:28	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0x5052b0…
07-01 21:57:25	Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xf162e5…
07-01 21:57:20	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	100	54¢	$54	0xc40232…
07-01 21:57:17	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0xbe333f…
07-01 21:56:59	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0xc05ef7…
07-01 21:56:55	Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x73ea08…
07-01 05:47:01	Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x8c8c9f…
06-29 14:48:04	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by June 30?	Yes	SELL	518	0¢	$1	0x44b48e…
06-29 13:50:23	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	55	22¢	$12	0xbdb93b…
06-29 12:32:25	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	55	18¢	$10	0x54814f…
06-14 09:38:45	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 btts	No	BUY	86	70¢	$60	0x8c8a8b…
06-13 19:43:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0x2b3616…
06-13 19:42:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1	74¢	$0	0xdefc2d…
06-13 19:42:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0x0f5628…
06-13 19:22:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x1b3c06…
06-12 13:17:48	spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$5	0x5e9671…
06-12 10:56:16	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x92d0d3…
06-11 21:06:49	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x6b8ebf…
06-09 12:53:52	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by June 30?	Yes	SELL	512	1¢	$5	0x0dd70a…
06-04 18:41:22	tea fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	95	1¢	$1	0x206faa…
06-04 18:39:57	tea fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	711	1¢	$8	0x0133f1…
06-04 17:24:39	tea fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0xea4421…
06-04 16:25:51	tea fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	63	1¢	$1	0x3a8de2…
06-04 16:06:52	tea fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x142a0a…
06-04 14:53:09	tea fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	104	1¢	$1	0xcc8a8c…
06-04 14:34:27	tea fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	905	1¢	$12	0xe86470…
06-01 12:45:33	Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0x22307c…
05-30 17:33:37	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x66f9c8…
05-30 16:56:23	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	80	40¢	$32	0xe4fe30…
05-30 16:56:21	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x4e42f5…
05-30 16:54:22	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x933a3f…
05-30 16:54:15	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xb1cf64…
05-30 16:54:11	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0xd447dc…
05-30 16:11:50	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	85	65¢	$55	0xdfe071…
05-30 16:11:47	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0x92c0ab…
05-30 16:11:36	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	1	65¢	$0	0x8741eb…
05-30 14:24:43	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x615dd7…
05-29 06:42:26	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	82	21¢	$17	0x2c14a2…
05-29 03:41:03	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	18	21¢	$4	0x7fd4fb…
05-28 14:11:37	Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xe463ec…
05-28 14:11:31	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0xc6ad56…
05-28 14:11:28	Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x95d287…
05-28 14:11:07	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x09fb69…
05-28 14:11:03	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xfae12a…
05-25 21:17:56	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x8ad3e8…
05-25 21:17:02	Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils	Gael Monfils	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xda7c24…
05-24 09:29:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	No	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0xcc4b63…
05-23 21:08:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	No	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0xea5225…
05-19 08:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x32790f…
05-19 08:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x074633…
05-19 08:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4238c4…
05-19 08:09:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xce5fb9…
05-19 07:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0477e7…
05-19 07:42:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xca81d6…
05-19 07:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xcd3f5c…
05-19 06:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1420d6…
05-19 06:44:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	42	1¢	$0	0xe537bb…
05-19 06:44:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	58	1¢	$1	0x4b5bd7…
05-19 06:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1dc830…
05-19 05:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	81	1¢	$1	0xd092c9…
05-19 05:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x7fdc8b…
05-19 05:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5df3cb…
05-19 05:14:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc90fa1…
05-19 04:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	58	1¢	$1	0xfc4888…
05-19 04:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xd90b98…
05-19 04:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xca4199…
05-19 04:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	32	1¢	$0	0x317b77…
05-19 04:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xffbd27…
05-19 04:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfaf8d7…
05-19 04:11:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4e2d10…
05-19 03:58:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x928013…
05-19 03:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf2513e…
05-19 03:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc47cc8…
05-19 02:57:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x85c418…
05-19 02:43:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc06969…
05-19 02:24:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1cbd0d…
05-19 02:14:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x055afa…
05-19 01:56:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x81ca62…
05-19 01:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xac28c5…
05-19 01:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5e0c88…
05-19 00:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd639df…
05-19 00:28:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb0ab2e…
05-19 00:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x5ed47a…
05-19 00:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x3436de…
05-19 00:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x32b8f6…
05-19 00:12:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xa3409e…
05-19 00:12:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	41	1¢	$0	0x9851fe…
05-19 00:12:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	28	1¢	$0	0x5a0f38…
05-18 23:53:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4f1af1…
05-18 23:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4cfc1a…
05-18 22:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa6c685…
05-18 22:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa2937b…
05-18 21:58:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x35cdc5…
05-18 21:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc1e37f…
05-18 21:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf039be…
05-18 20:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x316cc3…
05-18 20:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	24	1¢	$0	0xd86071…
05-18 20:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0xceb563…