Instructive-Pagoda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.03K

Unrealized P&L

+$385

Hit rate

85.7%

Resolved

Trades

162

lifetime

Volume

$22.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$141

Open exposure

$3.86K

7 positions

First seen

2026-03-24

last 07-20 07:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

62% 43% $-52

Politics

21% 50% +$2,083

Tech

10% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+2,899	$2,000	76¢	$2.2K	+$218	07-01 06:54
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	No	+1,088	$800	94¢	$1.0K	+$226	06-10 05:23
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	No	+406	$280	74¢	$303	+$23	07-20 07:29
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	No	+128	$100	87¢	$111	+$11	06-10 13:48
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?	No	+140	$100	73¢	$102	+$2	07-05 15:45
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	No	+171	$100	38¢	$64	$-36	06-16 19:48
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	+587	$100	7¢	$41	$-59	05-28 12:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	3	$2.3K	1,994	1,994	+0	open	—	05-08 06:05
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	2	$2.0K	2,899	0	+2,899	open	—	07-01 06:54
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	4	$1.2K	1,374	0	+1,374	open	—	06-09 16:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	3	$1.2K	1,271	646	+625	open	—	04-30 03:51
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$1.1K	0	1,077	-1,077	open	—	06-02 15:09
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	11	$1.0K	3,070	570	+2,500	Yes	+$2,095	04-24 23:34
will spy reach 770 in june 2026	1	$1000	1,226	0	+1,226	open	—	06-05 20:27
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	10	$908	2,869	369	+2,500	open	—	04-24 23:34
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	4	$800	1,088	0	+1,088	open	—	06-10 05:23
crint gbr2 ind4 2026 07 14	2	$750	521	521	+0	open	—	07-14 16:09
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?	6	$635	367	367	+0	open	—	04-28 15:49
crint gbr2 ind4 2026 07 16	3	$573	408	408	+0	open	—	07-16 19:35
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	2	$549	299	299	+0	open	—	06-28 19:48
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	3	$526	288	288	+0	open	—	04-28 15:50
will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	1	$504	0	1,218	-1,218	open	—	06-18 09:52
will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	3	$500	337	228	+109	open	—	04-25 14:21
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	1	$500	943	0	+943	open	—	05-18 03:18
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	5	$477	1,567	0	+1,567	open	—	05-17 11:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$468	290	290	+0	open	—	05-13 17:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	1	$345	479	0	+479	open	—	04-25 00:57
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	3	$300	704	204	+500	Lucknow Super Giants	+$80	05-07 18:53
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	2	$296	197	197	+0	open	—	06-28 13:22
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	6	$280	406	0	+406	open	—	07-20 07:29
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$246	211	211	+0	open	—	05-14 00:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$220	120	120	+0	open	—	07-02 08:15
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings	3	$204	3,652	0	+3,652	open	—	04-25 14:07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	1	$200	952	0	+952	open	—	04-24 09:05
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	1	$200	295	0	+295	open	—	05-09 13:49
Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet?	2	$200	416	0	+416	open	—	05-14 09:48
Will Trump say "Temple" during Chinese State Banquet?	2	$200	505	0	+505	open	—	05-14 09:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 07:29:04	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x5b0849…
07-19 17:56:00	crint gbr2 ind4 2026 07 19	India	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xf5b94c…
07-17 06:28:15	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xf05540…
07-16 19:35:11	crint gbr2 ind4 2026 07 16	England	SELL	208	99¢	$205	0x27a7a8…
07-16 15:41:19	crint gbr2 ind4 2026 07 16	England	SELL	200	84¢	$168	0xe227f8…
07-15 07:16:34	crint gbr2 ind4 2026 07 16	England	BUY	408	49¢	$200	0x95ae58…
07-14 16:09:19	crint gbr2 ind4 2026 07 14	India	SELL	521	96¢	$500	0x8897d3…
07-14 09:37:59	crint gbr2 ind4 2026 07 14	India	BUY	521	48¢	$250	0xc73d77…
07-12 08:27:02	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xf9bbc9…
07-08 09:48:02	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x726296…
07-05 15:45:58	Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?	No	BUY	140	72¢	$100	0x67f55e…
07-02 08:15:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0xeb999e…
07-01 17:32:07	will rayan cherki score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x20f56b…
07-01 17:32:05	will jrmy doku score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x30c186…
07-01 15:07:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0xa33664…
07-01 15:03:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	841	6¢	$50	0x158a42…
07-01 15:03:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	169	6¢	$10	0xcbc501…
07-01 06:54:13	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	1,429	70¢	$1,000	0x3d0bbf…
07-01 05:56:28	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	1,471	68¢	$1,000	0x3dfa79…
06-28 20:05:01	spx opens up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x2fc392…
06-28 19:48:16	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	299	100¢	$299	0x5c5eb7…
06-28 13:22:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x894f1d…
06-28 13:22:26	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	197	99¢	$196	0x5e5c67…
06-27 11:42:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138	No	BUY	758	7¢	$50	0x2dd8dc…
06-25 09:22:32	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xfa4ad5…
06-24 09:50:35	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	114	87¢	$100	0x799fbe…
06-18 09:52:05	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	SELL	1,218	41¢	$504	0xb3acea…
06-16 19:48:47	Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	No	BUY	171	59¢	$100	0xfbb7ea…
06-16 19:22:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0xc2a132…
06-16 11:52:40	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	299	83¢	$250	0x440a74…
06-16 11:45:06	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	197	51¢	$100	0x9a010b…
06-11 09:55:51	will jrmy doku score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x8f7361…
06-11 09:34:21	will rayan cherki score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x3fb142…
06-11 09:33:42	will memphis depay score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xa7fc3a…
06-11 08:47:00	president trump to attend usa opening match 20260607163739001	No	SELL	51	93¢	$48	0xaa327a…
06-10 13:48:00	Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xe190a8…
06-10 05:25:00	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x3541c0…
06-10 05:23:58	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xbf4cc4…
06-09 16:50:15	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	992	91¢	$900	0x3221e3…
06-09 03:56:31	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	676	74¢	$500	0x475db1…
06-09 03:32:34	president trump to attend usa opening match 20260607163739001	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x11cf7e…
06-08 11:25:49	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x93caaa…
06-08 03:34:55	president trump to attend usa opening match 20260607163739001	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x7ffe70…
06-08 03:23:33	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0xc032b9…
06-07 20:56:19	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	142	71¢	$100	0xd6aa42…
06-05 20:27:00	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	No	BUY	1,226	82¢	$1,000	0xe54ba0…
06-05 19:47:55	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x8646c8…
06-05 19:46:43	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	134	75¢	$100	0xebaba9…
06-05 06:38:12	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	136	73¢	$100	0xfbbe92…
06-05 06:37:36	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x2fb9c8…
06-02 15:09:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,077	99¢	$1,069	0xa41704…
05-28 12:44:14	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	587	17¢	$100	0xe1334c…
05-28 09:12:48	Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x09abbc…
05-27 21:16:17	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	BUY	117	86¢	$100	0x2fb688…
05-18 03:18:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	No	BUY	943	53¢	$500	0x8b7f63…
05-17 11:02:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	296	34¢	$100	0xa35bc3…
05-16 04:10:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	206	24¢	$50	0x5276b0…
05-15 05:15:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	194	26¢	$50	0x7f0551…
05-14 09:48:38	Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	203	49¢	$100	0x8f1dbe…
05-14 09:48:26	Will Trump say "Temple" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	248	40¢	$100	0x99d584…
05-14 09:47:21	Will Trump say "Temple" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0x33d89e…
05-14 09:46:39	Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0xaaca61…
05-14 05:55:30	Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	178	56¢	$100	0xd7990c…
05-14 05:55:21	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	280	36¢	$100	0x43d91c…
05-14 05:48:07	Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0xb4baac…
05-14 00:26:53	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	211	69¢	$146	0x61d100…
05-13 17:08:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	290	93¢	$268	0xcc72e0…
05-13 17:06:14	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	123	41¢	$50	0xe12f3c…
05-13 02:43:50	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0xcbaf81…
05-13 02:43:43	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0xa50a34…
05-11 14:59:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	507	35¢	$177	0x4db40c…
05-10 17:07:38	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x22a664…
05-10 16:08:03	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	SELL	96	13¢	$12	0xd72a61…
05-10 14:37:22	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0xa27217…
05-10 04:49:19	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	364	27¢	$100	0x59345b…
05-09 13:49:38	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	295	68¢	$200	0xb83e26…
05-08 14:18:20	Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders	Delhi Capitals	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0xebd015…
05-08 06:05:30	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	No	SELL	1,967	64¢	$1,252	0x130379…
05-08 04:52:20	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	No	SELL	27	65¢	$18	0xcb8f61…
05-07 18:53:36	Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x82b899…
05-07 18:32:29	Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	Lucknow Super Giants	SELL	204	93¢	$190	0xc38f7c…
05-07 18:21:01	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	SELL	135	91¢	$123	0xd9492e…
05-07 14:32:58	Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	Lucknow Super Giants	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xc82249…
05-07 10:15:06	Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x5509cf…
05-07 10:14:20	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x87b2e5…
05-07 10:10:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x2807cd…
05-07 10:08:51	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x815c31…
05-07 07:32:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	135	37¢	$50	0x7f7b82…
05-06 23:32:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xfd3738…
05-06 09:43:52	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	556	9¢	$50	0x513ca1…
05-06 09:32:10	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	909	11¢	$100	0xe4414d…
05-06 05:51:40	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	No	BUY	1,994	50¢	$1,000	0x09ce26…
05-05 17:28:32	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	1,401	1¢	$10	0x9e404e…
05-05 16:57:20	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Norah O'Donnell by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x59c44f…
05-05 15:34:18	Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings	Chennai Super Kings	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x0ad4a8…
05-05 15:32:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Norah O'Donnell by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x8d28f2…
05-01 08:51:32	Will Donald Trump dance on May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xc988ef…
04-30 03:51:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	SELL	646	19¢	$123	0x9a2763…
04-28 15:54:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	BUY	722	81¢	$585	0x329912…
04-28 15:50:22	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	SELL	288	96¢	$276	0x837e89…