Instructive-Pagoda — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$355

Unrealized P&L

+$442

Hit rate

44.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

365 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$7.46K

$47.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

$130

Open exposure

$5.98K

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-24

last 11-08 12:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Other

55% 47% -$951

Politics

24% 55% +$4,273

Tech

10% 0% -$250

Sports

7% 14% -$1,346

Crypto

5% 50% -$108

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+5,572	$4,120	91¢	$5.1K	+$950	10-15 03:37
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+531	$329	81¢	$432	+$103	11-05 15:08
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	+18,856	$630	2¢	$292	-$338	11-08 12:49
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	+14,482	$455	1¢	$181	-$274	11-06 10:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	7	$4.1K	5,572	0	+5,572	open	—	10-15 03:37
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	9	$2.5K	3,105	0	+3,105	open	—	08-22 04:11
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	3	$2.3K	1,994	1,994	+0	No	+$269	05-08 06:05
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	8	$2.1K	2,610	0	+2,610	No	+$510	06-09 16:50
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	2	$2.0K	1,043	1,043	+0	No	+$39	08-06 15:31
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$1.8K	1,077	1,077	+0	No	+$369	06-02 15:09
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	12	$1.6K	3,070	1,195	+1,875	Yes	+$2,008	05-04 04:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	2	$1.5K	1,218	1,218	+0	Yes	-$496	06-18 09:52
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	11	$1.5K	2,869	994	+1,875	No	+$1,928	05-04 04:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	3	$1.2K	1,271	646	+625	Yes	-$912	04-30 03:51
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	15	$1.0K	1,517	0	+1,517	open	—	09-05 05:48
will spy reach 760 in july 2026	11	$1.0K	1,108	0	+1,108	No	+$100	07-29 19:04
will spy reach 770 in june 2026	1	$1000	1,226	0	+1,226	No	+$226	06-05 20:27
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?	1	$1000	1,026	0	+1,026	No	+$26	06-25 13:40
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	2	$899	1,480	1,480	+0	No	-$101	06-17 14:42
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$812	3,312	2,955	+358	No	-$508	07-19 21:46
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	2	$802	642	642	+0	Yes	-$198	05-28 09:11
crint gbr2 ind4 2026 07 14	2	$750	521	521	+0	India	+$250	07-14 16:09
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?	5	$700	843	0	+843	No	+$143	07-01 10:16
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	3	$671	781	250	+531	open	—	11-05 15:08
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?	6	$635	367	367	+0	No	+$35	04-28 15:49
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	12	$630	18,856	0	+18,856	open	—	11-08 12:49
crint gbr2 ind4 2026 07 16	3	$573	408	408	+0	England	+$173	07-16 19:35
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	2	$549	299	299	+0	No	+$49	06-28 19:48
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	3	$526	288	288	+0	No	+$26	04-28 15:50
will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	3	$500	337	228	+109	Yes	-$100	04-25 14:21
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	1	$500	943	0	+943	Yes	-$500	05-18 03:18
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	5	$477	1,567	0	+1,567	Yes	-$477	05-17 11:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$468	290	290	+0	No	+$68	05-13 17:08
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	10	$455	14,482	0	+14,482	open	—	11-06 10:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 12:49:30	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,667	1¢	$25	0x77c1b1…
11-07 06:07:27	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	2,500	2¢	$50	0x0875de…
11-06 19:12:18	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,250	2¢	$25	0x50a30e…
11-06 19:11:51	Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?	No	SELL	140	92¢	$128	0x6b5f05…
11-06 10:36:31	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	400	2¢	$10	0xcc008e…
11-06 10:36:06	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	526	2¢	$10	0x40164c…
11-06 08:16:15	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	2,083	2¢	$50	0xc01392…
11-06 03:38:00	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	2,548	2¢	$50	0x856ddb…
11-06 03:32:12	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	3,704	3¢	$100	0x96986e…
11-05 18:09:57	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	4¢	$40	0x118f66…
11-05 15:50:06	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,821	5¢	$100	0xe036fe…
11-05 15:22:45	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,912	5¢	$100	0x5fd05e…
11-05 15:09:07	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	577	5¢	$30	0x115055…
11-05 15:08:58	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	900	3¢	$30	0x4a66e6…
11-05 15:08:28	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	962	5¢	$50	0xafe03a…
11-05 15:08:13	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	150	70¢	$105	0x81e753…
11-05 15:04:19	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	980	5¢	$50	0xaf48c6…
11-05 15:02:04	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	2,994	3¢	$100	0x616141…
11-05 15:01:07	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,615	3¢	$50	0xa624a2…
11-05 14:15:55	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,724	3¢	$50	0xb93f1d…
11-05 14:14:36	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	3,448	3¢	$100	0x341d7b…
11-05 14:14:22	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	357	3¢	$10	0x6fbe4c…
11-04 15:28:37	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	70	7¢	$5	0x3a3668…
11-04 14:21:45	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	298	17¢	$50	0xd4d1af…
11-04 11:37:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 4?	Up	SELL	140	88¢	$123	0xb531f6…
11-04 03:16:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 4?	Up	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0xb6af3a…
11-04 03:15:58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0x15a2fb…
11-03 14:38:33	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?	No	BUY	77	3¢	$2	0x0fca40…
10-30 14:35:55	Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?	No	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0x3c8eef…
10-25 18:20:54	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?	No	BUY	417	6¢	$25	0x0ae872…
10-21 18:58:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	280	4¢	$10	0x0cbd78…
10-21 18:58:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x3ce55d…
10-21 16:32:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	450	6¢	$25	0x23ce1c…
10-21 16:30:23	Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	128	88¢	$112	0xb32b88…
10-21 16:29:24	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	133	6¢	$8	0xf09ed6…
10-20 17:44:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	432	6¢	$25	0x4d9c7f…
10-20 17:35:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	390	6¢	$25	0x46278c…
10-20 17:21:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x52fe4e…
10-20 17:17:33	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	260	10¢	$25	0x66021f…
10-20 15:08:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	300	8¢	$25	0xfb10dd…
10-20 15:07:41	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	753	9¢	$70	0xf5a6c1…
10-20 14:56:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	271	8¢	$22	0x307387…
10-19 17:15:05	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	400	6¢	$25	0x422497…
10-19 15:26:09	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	490	2¢	$8	0x0b4ef4…
10-19 15:25:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	1,010	1¢	$12	0x3971dc…
10-19 14:48:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	267	9¢	$25	0xb98103…
10-19 14:36:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	352	14¢	$50	0x8e9a60…
10-19 14:35:53	Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	No	SELL	166	89¢	$148	0x026b4b…
10-15 16:04:02	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	Down	BUY	87	39¢	$34	0x65051a…
10-15 03:37:55	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xdf5838…
10-06 18:36:59	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x83e57a…
10-04 11:06:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	781	64¢	$500	0xd6cb24…
10-02 03:38:59	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?	No	SELL	117	98¢	$114	0x3eccec…
10-01 19:14:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1?	Down	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0xb7e6d7…
10-01 19:08:12	spx up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	228	11¢	$25	0xa24cfe…
10-01 18:38:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1?	Down	BUY	327	15¢	$50	0xbeb7a2…
09-30 18:59:03	spx up or down on september 30 2026	Down	BUY	122	8¢	$10	0x85ebdc…
09-30 18:58:48	spx up or down on september 30 2026	Down	BUY	165	6¢	$10	0x860c11…
09-28 08:15:21	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x1229ed…
09-27 11:21:45	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xd53790…
09-22 17:18:46	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	196	23¢	$45	0xa660c2…
09-22 14:43:58	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	165	6¢	$10	0x66702a…
09-22 06:32:06	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x84391f…
09-21 15:05:33	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	312	16¢	$50	0x58bacf…
09-21 14:41:33	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	331	15¢	$50	0xe10348…
09-21 13:46:26	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	312	16¢	$50	0xbfcdfe…
09-21 12:13:53	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	385	13¢	$50	0x2f73f6…
09-20 05:42:24	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?	No	BUY	117	86¢	$100	0x0a2cdc…
09-19 16:20:53	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	No	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0x0118db…
09-19 11:22:02	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0x2b354c…
09-19 06:00:16	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	No	BUY	270	37¢	$100	0x21098b…
09-17 15:52:33	Afghanistan Tour of India T20s: India vs Afghanistan	India	BUY	400	95¢	$380	0x46656a…
09-17 14:08:43	spx up or down on september 17 2026	Down	BUY	89	6¢	$5	0xd2dd85…
09-17 14:03:13	spx up or down on september 17 2026	Down	BUY	160	5¢	$9	0x4b163e…
09-17 13:50:55	spx up or down on september 17 2026	Down	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xc4653c…
09-16 08:36:18	Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?	No	BUY	144	69¢	$100	0x27e88d…
09-11 14:39:57	spx up or down on september 11 2026	Down	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xa9c898…
09-11 11:57:27	Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?	No	BUY	104	72¢	$75	0x7d1d11…
09-05 05:48:07	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	488	82¢	$400	0xd5b277…
09-03 16:58:43	spx up or down on september 3 2026	Down	BUY	275	1¢	$2	0xa4e6b3…
09-03 16:58:25	spx up or down on september 3 2026	Down	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x985a82…
09-03 14:07:15	spx up or down on september 3 2026	Down	BUY	342	15¢	$50	0x0a9542…
08-27 08:26:06	Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x9bc74f…
08-22 04:11:19	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	1,106	90¢	$1,000	0xaa7161…
08-22 04:09:03	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	1,220	82¢	$1,000	0x70afab…
08-20 13:34:33	spx up or down on august 20 2026	Up	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x2e1afa…
08-18 16:54:28	Will India win?	No	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xa914f2…
08-18 07:40:09	spx up or down on august 18 2026	Up	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x0a803a…
08-17 15:33:58	Will the match end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	214	23¢	$50	0xecd0e3…
08-12 11:12:37	Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	99	10¢	$10	0x204601…
08-11 17:14:48	spx up or down on august 11 2026	Up	SELL	156	6¢	$9	0xda177b…
08-11 15:35:58	spx up or down on august 11 2026	Up	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0x1f373b…
08-11 09:33:18	spx up or down on august 11 2026	Up	SELL	200	55¢	$110	0x8c9ba9…
08-11 07:24:43	spx up or down on august 11 2026	Up	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x184ef9…
08-10 14:44:10	Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	137	1¢	$1	0x6ae918…
08-10 06:37:33	Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	SELL	333	54¢	$179	0xc0d078…
08-08 07:53:15	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	No	BUY	305	82¢	$250	0x7182af…
08-07 14:53:21	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	143	86¢	$123	0x791916…
08-07 11:37:00	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x4d6123…
08-06 15:31:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	SELL	1,043	100¢	$1,039	0xc62a44…