Elaborate-Cashier — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$40.3K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

2.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,929

lifetime

Volume

$550.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$188

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 08-11 15:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

80% 25% $-40,326

Other

20% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 69 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	34	$36.6K	36,269	5,212	+31,057	Yes	$-27,285	05-04 19:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	106	$32.0K	44,780	14,874	+29,906	open	—	07-02 13:02
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	123	$31.9K	37,271	0	+37,271	open	—	02-26 14:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	8	$28.2K	31,321	0	+31,321	open	—	06-11 17:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	147	$25.8K	34,688	6,757	+27,931	open	—	05-31 15:15
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	5	$25.4K	0	26,812	-26,812	open	—	06-16 23:50
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	87	$23.2K	26,943	3,977	+22,966	open	—	03-04 05:07
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	34	$20.0K	22,763	0	+22,763	open	—	05-06 09:36
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	47	$19.9K	10,298	10,298	+0	open	—	04-24 05:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	79	$19.7K	25,450	0	+25,450	open	—	04-24 11:13
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	166	$17.9K	45,667	43,050	+2,618	open	—	04-08 00:00
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	30	$16.6K	8,618	9,297	-680	open	—	02-28 07:40
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	214	$16.3K	18,868	0	+18,868	open	—	04-19 13:43
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	2	$15.8K	19,000	0	+19,000	open	—	07-07 20:31
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	17	$11.2K	12,596	0	+12,596	open	—	04-17 23:54
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	107	$10.6K	22,798	6,060	+16,738	open	—	04-07 23:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	30	$9.1K	12,172	4,106	+8,066	open	—	06-19 20:49
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	44	$8.8K	13,154	0	+13,154	open	—	04-21 03:17
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	24	$8.1K	4,419	3,927	+492	open	—	01-22 15:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	36	$7.6K	14,503	17,320	-2,817	open	—	08-09 08:00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	28	$7.5K	8,321	0	+8,321	open	—	05-27 04:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	9	$7.2K	7,781	0	+7,781	Yes	$-7,207	05-02 19:47
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	64	$6.8K	6,963	6,963	+0	open	—	04-09 00:17
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	53	$6.8K	11,599	0	+11,599	open	—	04-21 19:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	14	$6.7K	10,603	575	+10,029	Yes	$-5,939	05-08 19:20
will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	6	$6.7K	7,007	0	+7,007	open	—	07-24 01:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	60	$6.5K	27,046	0	+27,046	open	—	06-12 23:58
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	31	$6.3K	7,280	0	+7,280	open	—	05-27 20:27
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	75	$5.8K	22,152	25,850	-3,698	open	—	06-21 03:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	18	$5.4K	6,287	6,287	+0	open	—	04-07 23:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 15:00:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	46¢	$0	0x7d7b6f…
08-11 15:00:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	32	46¢	$15	0x0f7122…
08-11 09:34:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	244	21¢	$52	0xd86fa4…
08-11 09:33:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	83	21¢	$17	0x9b66bb…
08-11 09:33:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	216	21¢	$45	0x07ee00…
08-11 09:00:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	SELL	300	47¢	$141	0x587676…
08-10 17:01:04	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x2f275b…
08-10 17:00:34	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x8ed7e5…
08-10 16:59:04	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x0aef98…
08-10 16:58:49	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x398576…
08-10 16:57:24	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0x9c5d42…
08-09 08:00:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x7d21b2…
08-09 07:59:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xc7bb62…
08-09 06:06:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	BUY	543	8¢	$43	0x6d1bee…
08-09 04:05:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	35	44¢	$16	0xed5462…
08-06 20:10:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	500	44¢	$220	0x140a22…
08-06 19:17:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	No	BUY	300	15¢	$45	0xbb91a3…
08-05 15:56:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	250	28¢	$70	0xb21511…
08-05 15:56:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	250	28¢	$70	0x78813d…
08-05 08:02:24	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xecdde7…
08-05 06:33:56	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	500	48¢	$238	0xe3c7cf…
08-05 03:07:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	25	44¢	$11	0x73317e…
08-05 03:07:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xe759e6…
08-05 02:43:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	48	44¢	$21	0x2b367b…
08-05 02:34:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x7b169d…
08-05 02:26:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	21	44¢	$9	0xc01421…
08-04 15:48:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	196	33¢	$65	0xd5b512…
08-04 15:46:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	21	33¢	$7	0x050d03…
08-04 15:37:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	168	33¢	$55	0x68e4dc…
08-04 14:43:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xdd480a…
08-04 13:26:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1,006	16¢	$161	0xea20ce…
08-04 13:25:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	5,322	15¢	$803	0x3206b1…
08-04 02:18:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1,015	13¢	$132	0x105a07…
08-04 02:09:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x78bb09…
08-04 02:02:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x9be7a6…
08-04 02:00:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	62	13¢	$8	0xf61b3a…
08-04 02:00:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xa50ddb…
08-04 02:00:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	115	13¢	$15	0x7e688e…
08-04 02:00:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	311	13¢	$40	0xed0eb5…
08-04 02:00:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xa7b99c…
08-04 02:00:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x6e9d9e…
08-04 02:00:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	213	13¢	$28	0x43bd7b…
08-04 01:56:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	52	13¢	$7	0xafca8d…
08-04 01:55:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xa4ae14…
08-04 01:54:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xd14907…
08-04 01:54:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x90c6ed…
08-04 01:54:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x5d17f5…
08-04 01:54:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	184	13¢	$24	0x5a9f46…
08-04 01:54:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	19	13¢	$2	0x19dbf1…
08-04 01:54:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	51	13¢	$7	0xf04988…
08-04 01:53:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x6911b3…
08-04 01:53:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xf53b95…
08-04 01:53:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0x95936f…
08-04 01:53:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x132a11…
08-04 01:53:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0xd7ffe5…
08-04 01:53:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x4d62ee…
08-04 01:53:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x321f47…
08-04 01:53:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	850	13¢	$111	0xe8085f…
08-04 01:53:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0xe7df92…
08-04 01:53:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	26	13¢	$3	0x4795a3…
08-04 01:53:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	52	13¢	$7	0x19aeaf…
08-04 01:53:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	565	13¢	$73	0x06932d…
08-04 01:53:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	58	13¢	$7	0xeca7e5…
08-04 01:53:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x2e3c86…
08-04 01:53:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	25	13¢	$3	0x0b2106…
08-04 01:52:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0xcbf99d…
08-04 01:52:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	35	13¢	$5	0xb736bb…
08-04 01:52:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	179	13¢	$23	0xf61512…
08-04 01:52:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0xe88982…
08-04 01:52:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0xce5110…
08-04 01:52:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	52	13¢	$7	0x64faa7…
08-04 01:52:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	59	13¢	$8	0x5f4478…
08-04 01:52:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	4	13¢	$1	0xf53667…
08-04 01:52:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0xe5ddbb…
08-04 01:52:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	365	13¢	$47	0xc7f413…
08-04 01:52:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x61b45c…
08-04 01:52:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	4	13¢	$1	0xae060a…
08-04 01:52:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	3,184	13¢	$414	0xdddfff…
08-04 01:52:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	23	13¢	$3	0xa7028e…
08-04 01:52:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	23	13¢	$3	0x3c4d79…
08-04 01:52:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	16	13¢	$2	0x2d9c4c…
08-04 01:52:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0x07e93e…
08-04 01:52:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	91	13¢	$12	0xb7e422…
08-04 01:52:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	916	13¢	$119	0x481ddb…
08-04 01:52:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	4	13¢	$0	0x0c5cd4…
08-04 01:52:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xfcd3b6…
08-04 01:52:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0xcce05d…
08-04 01:52:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xba6dee…
08-04 01:52:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0x70a70a…
08-04 01:52:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0x717f28…
08-04 01:52:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	22	13¢	$3	0x1254a1…
08-04 01:52:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0x01f170…
08-04 01:52:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0xbeb2ab…
08-04 01:52:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0xa82dc5…
08-04 01:52:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	21	13¢	$3	0x9f7c14…
08-03 04:51:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	16	52¢	$8	0x0889bf…
08-02 21:42:26	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	280	65¢	$182	0xa5c0cc…
08-02 06:31:50	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	208	65¢	$135	0xfe269a…
08-02 03:53:39	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	550	66¢	$363	0x899ae8…
08-02 03:52:57	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x3a6dac…