Elaborate-Cashier — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$40.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$10.3K

Hit rate

2.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,531

lifetime

Volume

$494.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$196

Open exposure

$38.3K

11 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 06-28 22:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

84% 25% $-40,326

Other

16% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 203 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+39,304	$17,588	70¢	$27.7K	+$10,122	07-01 22:28
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	-7,075	$-5,237	82¢	$-5837	$-601	06-18 19:25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	-2,949	$-2,031	70¢	$-2079	$-49	06-19 23:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+11,416	$1,155	18¢	$2.0K	+$843	06-25 13:38
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,106	$276	25¢	$276	+$0	06-25 13:20
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	+386	$182	46¢	$180	$-2	06-24 05:55
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+832	$99	8¢	$71	$-28	06-27 20:46
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+137	$44	33¢	$45	+$1	06-26 10:02
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+81	$39	55¢	$44	+$6	05-28 03:05
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+31	$13	64¢	$19	+$6	06-10 18:20
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	-121	$-14	12¢	$-14	+$0	06-28 22:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	34	$36.6K	36,269	5,212	+31,057	Yes	$-27,285	05-04 19:21
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	123	$31.9K	37,271	0	+37,271	open	—	02-26 14:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	8	$28.2K	31,321	0	+31,321	open	—	06-11 17:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	147	$25.8K	34,688	6,757	+27,931	open	—	05-31 15:15
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	5	$25.4K	0	26,812	-26,812	open	—	06-16 23:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	64	$24.9K	44,780	5,154	+39,627	open	—	07-01 22:28
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	87	$23.2K	26,943	3,977	+22,966	open	—	03-04 05:07
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	34	$20.0K	22,763	0	+22,763	open	—	05-06 09:36
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	47	$19.9K	10,298	10,298	+0	open	—	04-24 05:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	79	$19.7K	25,450	0	+25,450	open	—	04-24 11:13
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	166	$17.9K	45,667	43,050	+2,618	open	—	04-08 00:00
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	30	$16.6K	8,618	9,297	-680	open	—	02-28 07:40
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	214	$16.3K	18,868	0	+18,868	open	—	04-19 13:43
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	17	$11.2K	12,596	0	+12,596	open	—	04-17 23:54
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	107	$10.6K	22,798	6,060	+16,738	open	—	04-07 23:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	30	$9.1K	12,172	4,106	+8,066	open	—	06-19 20:49
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	44	$8.8K	13,154	0	+13,154	open	—	04-21 03:17
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	24	$8.1K	4,419	3,927	+492	open	—	01-22 15:24
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	28	$7.5K	8,321	0	+8,321	open	—	05-27 04:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	9	$7.2K	7,781	0	+7,781	Yes	$-7,207	05-02 19:47
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	64	$6.8K	6,963	6,963	+0	open	—	04-09 00:17
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	53	$6.8K	11,599	0	+11,599	open	—	04-21 19:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	14	$6.7K	10,603	575	+10,029	Yes	$-5,939	05-08 19:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	60	$6.5K	27,046	0	+27,046	open	—	06-12 23:58
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	31	$6.3K	7,280	0	+7,280	open	—	05-27 20:27
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	75	$5.8K	22,152	25,850	-3,698	open	—	06-21 03:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	18	$5.4K	6,287	6,287	+0	open	—	04-07 23:10
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	39	$5.3K	8,890	8,890	+0	open	—	04-07 23:22
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	2	$5.2K	0	7,075	-7,075	open	—	06-18 19:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	31	$4.9K	4,959	0	+4,959	open	—	06-06 15:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 22:28:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	76	70¢	$53	0xcf2ec8…
07-01 22:20:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	79	70¢	$55	0x4a4081…
07-01 22:16:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	79	70¢	$55	0xb4badf…
07-01 22:13:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0x199130…
07-01 22:13:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0x5bc17b…
07-01 21:56:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	158	70¢	$111	0x50297e…
07-01 21:56:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	159	70¢	$111	0x61de02…
07-01 21:43:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	11	70¢	$8	0x9002ce…
07-01 21:37:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	113	70¢	$79	0x3aa0c3…
07-01 21:34:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	56	70¢	$39	0x08b32e…
07-01 21:27:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x5df9cc…
07-01 21:27:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xaf1b7e…
07-01 21:24:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,188	70¢	$832	0x88617b…
07-01 21:20:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,188	70¢	$832	0x715a4b…
07-01 21:15:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0xfbf41e…
07-01 21:15:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xcc41b3…
07-01 21:15:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,889	70¢	$1,322	0xc970e9…
07-01 21:15:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0x996dee…
07-01 21:15:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	123	70¢	$86	0x4aa2e4…
07-01 21:15:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x4a5909…
06-28 22:39:38	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	61	12¢	$7	0xcf3287…
06-28 22:39:22	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0xdd382e…
06-27 20:46:11	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x2f44cb…
06-27 19:59:22	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe2ce85…
06-27 19:47:44	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xdcdab9…
06-27 18:34:20	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	150	50¢	$75	0x80936f…
06-27 18:32:01	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	47	50¢	$23	0xfd04c1…
06-27 18:32:01	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	47	50¢	$23	0xc6b253…
06-27 18:32:01	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	47	50¢	$23	0x333644…
06-27 18:17:17	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	69	48¢	$34	0x06f4ac…
06-27 18:17:16	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	129	48¢	$62	0xe19239…
06-27 18:17:16	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0x5c7b02…
06-27 18:17:16	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	105	48¢	$50	0x4bf1a0…
06-27 18:17:16	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	35	48¢	$17	0x4b0349…
06-27 18:17:16	will russia capture bilytske by december 31 2026 252	Yes	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0x4a0f92…
06-26 10:02:01	Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	32¢	$18	0x1e62a4…
06-26 10:01:14	Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x0ddab2…
06-26 10:00:56	Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	32¢	$24	0x7b75b8…
06-26 07:07:49	will russia capture all of kupiansk by december 31 391	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0x01c71c…
06-25 18:41:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xd8b01f…
06-25 13:38:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	462	10¢	$46	0x929b47…
06-25 13:38:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	75	10¢	$8	0x72aae2…
06-25 13:33:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	646	10¢	$65	0x3126e6…
06-25 13:25:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	150	34¢	$51	0x3fb368…
06-25 13:24:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	3,150	35¢	$1,103	0x60b22d…
06-25 13:23:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	36	35¢	$12	0x8bc4d0…
06-25 13:22:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	215	35¢	$75	0xcfdf3b…
06-25 13:20:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	3,818	35¢	$1,336	0x52f738…
06-25 13:20:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	18	35¢	$6	0xfe43be…
06-25 13:20:37	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,104	25¢	$276	0xe259ed…
06-25 13:20:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0x473781…
06-25 13:19:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	302	35¢	$106	0x3ed80c…
06-25 13:19:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	174	35¢	$61	0x138896…
06-25 10:35:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,597	49¢	$780	0x55b702…
06-25 10:33:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xa909f6…
06-25 10:32:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	46	50¢	$23	0x283827…
06-25 10:32:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	215	50¢	$108	0x1fe5e0…
06-25 10:31:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	93	50¢	$46	0x2a0087…
06-25 10:29:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	374	50¢	$187	0x986efb…
06-25 10:29:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	29	50¢	$14	0x363c18…
06-25 10:26:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	35	50¢	$18	0x01ba0d…
06-25 10:14:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xe3e4e6…
06-25 10:08:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0xf640df…
06-25 10:07:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xa857b4…
06-25 10:04:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x30cb3b…
06-25 10:01:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	452	51¢	$231	0x7cc1a4…
06-25 10:00:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa78c30…
06-25 10:00:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	3,366	51¢	$1,717	0x113819…
06-25 10:00:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	216	50¢	$108	0xf86a39…
06-25 10:00:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0x7d9408…
06-25 08:46:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,500	52¢	$780	0x104e55…
06-25 06:00:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	300	68¢	$204	0x276374…
06-25 05:58:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x21b27e…
06-25 05:47:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	625	68¢	$425	0x7de1bb…
06-25 05:46:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	300	68¢	$204	0x61b15a…
06-25 05:43:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	25	68¢	$17	0x44ae82…
06-25 05:41:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	40	68¢	$27	0x34cc36…
06-25 05:41:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	40	68¢	$27	0x137dbd…
06-25 05:41:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	505	67¢	$341	0x620b73…
06-25 05:17:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	264	68¢	$180	0x1407b0…
06-25 05:11:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	312	68¢	$213	0x05d4f3…
06-25 05:10:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	938	68¢	$638	0x8fa11e…
06-25 05:04:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	244	68¢	$166	0x3ccc1f…
06-25 05:00:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x3b6514…
06-25 04:59:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	28	68¢	$19	0x7ae3b6…
06-24 05:55:52	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	47¢	$33	0xd9fb80…
06-24 05:55:10	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	47¢	$141	0xb704cd…
06-24 05:54:55	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	47¢	$8	0xc8ffc5…
06-23 14:49:41	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,575	25¢	$394	0xe585a7…
06-23 10:23:49	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	812	12¢	$98	0x0af34b…
06-23 05:28:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,843	10¢	$183	0x63f772…
06-23 04:24:53	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	195	10¢	$19	0x1fca4c…
06-22 14:08:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	861	69¢	$594	0xc0d4f0…
06-22 14:07:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	213	69¢	$147	0xb67490…
06-22 14:06:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,794	50¢	$1,397	0xf9cf92…
06-22 14:06:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	6,469	14¢	$887	0xf1b797…
06-22 14:06:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	70	13¢	$9	0xdf3b83…
06-22 14:06:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8,094	50¢	$4,062	0x57d7d9…
06-22 14:06:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,194	50¢	$1,097	0x785eee…
06-22 14:06:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	400	69¢	$276	0x3a9846…