Gullible-Serum — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$801

Unrealized P&L

-$493

Hit rate

57.5%

Resolved

554

Trades

1,158

lifetime

Volume

$13.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$5.75K

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-27 08:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 110 days

Categories

Other

48% 33% -$723

Politics

46% 38% +$2

Sports

6% 41% -$79

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 80 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+3,078	$2,365	67¢	$2.1K	-$293	10-26 03:37
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+990	$948	98¢	$970	+$21	09-10 21:59
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+990	$676	67¢	$663	-$13	10-19 14:50
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+1,322	$726	48¢	$635	-$92	10-26 09:42
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	+1,128	$655	48¢	$536	-$120	10-26 09:42
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	+540	$469	90¢	$483	+$15	07-04 18:23
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+210	$133	73¢	$153	+$21	10-13 01:04
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	+201	$168	70¢	$139	-$28	10-26 23:45
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	+60	$53	94¢	$57	+$4	06-06 14:43
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	+60	$49	69¢	$42	-$7	10-12 17:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	24	$2.4K	3,078	0	+3,078	open	—	10-26 03:37
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	77	$1.1K	21,166	21,166	+0	Yes	-$808	09-21 07:02
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	58	$948	990	0	+990	open	—	09-10 21:59
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	13	$922	3,471	3,026	+445	Yes	+$32	09-21 07:02
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	34	$726	1,322	0	+1,322	open	—	10-26 09:42
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	18	$676	990	0	+990	open	—	10-19 14:50
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	18	$655	1,128	0	+1,128	open	—	10-26 09:42
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	3	$469	540	0	+540	open	—	07-04 18:23
Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	7	$415	500	0	+500	open	—	10-26 10:03
Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	4	$407	462	0	+462	open	—	10-20 04:03
Will María Fernanda Espinosa be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	6	$313	348	0	+348	open	—	10-19 14:55
Will Wang Chung-ming win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?	4	$292	380	0	+380	open	—	10-25 07:02
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	3	$283	230	230	+0	Yes	+$163	04-05 13:42
Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	13	$236	300	0	+300	open	—	10-19 16:10
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	1	$189	190	0	+190	Yes	+$1	02-08 11:14
Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	5	$179	203	0	+203	open	—	10-27 08:47
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	6	$168	201	0	+201	open	—	10-26 23:45
Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	2	$137	100	100	+0	open	—	10-12 03:10
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	6	$133	210	0	+210	open	—	10-13 01:04
Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?	5	$117	150	0	+150	open	—	10-14 05:53
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	5	$116	150	0	+150	open	—	10-07 07:48
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	3	$114	834	834	+0	Yes	+$4	09-19 04:35
Will Wu Hsiu-hua win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?	3	$108	150	0	+150	open	—	10-27 01:27
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	1	$96	100	0	+100	Yes	+$4	07-19 15:41
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	2	$73	90	0	+90	open	—	10-20 12:37
Will Lai Jui-lung win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	1	$65	100	0	+100	open	—	10-06 00:40
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	1	$53	60	0	+60	open	—	06-06 14:43
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	2	$49	60	0	+60	open	—	10-12 17:47
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	1	$48	0	50	-50	Yes	-$2	05-17 14:05
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	3	$45	300	0	+300	No	-$45	10-08 23:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 08:47:11	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0xe7a801…
10-27 01:27:47	Will Wu Hsiu-hua win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	66	72¢	$48	0xe4ddcb…
10-27 01:27:47	Will Wu Hsiu-hua win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x7f4020…
10-27 01:27:47	Will Wu Hsiu-hua win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	34	72¢	$24	0x19fd86…
10-26 23:45:56	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	28	68¢	$19	0x95ed7c…
10-26 10:03:32	Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	131	83¢	$108	0x949030…
10-26 09:46:59	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x1e90bd…
10-26 09:42:41	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x82139b…
10-26 09:42:41	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x2b436c…
10-26 07:48:54	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	150	46¢	$69	0x5eafe3…
10-26 07:48:21	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	123	46¢	$56	0x174077…
10-26 05:46:21	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xa6827e…
10-26 03:37:15	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	180	62¢	$111	0x4d8e48…
10-26 03:18:48	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xbb7ec6…
10-26 02:08:36	Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xb02d30…
10-26 02:08:36	Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	17	83¢	$14	0x146120…
10-25 21:51:30	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	150	46¢	$69	0x8d3cc9…
10-25 09:49:56	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	180	62¢	$111	0x4eade9…
10-25 07:02:06	Will Wang Chung-ming win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0xa81675…
10-25 05:45:41	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	81	45¢	$37	0xa9714f…
10-25 05:45:41	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	30	45¢	$14	0x5471ae…
10-25 05:45:41	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	39	45¢	$17	0x34334a…
10-25 03:17:51	Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	85	83¢	$71	0x9032cd…
10-25 03:17:51	Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	215	83¢	$178	0x1b8cfe…
10-20 12:37:24	Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x92ac25…
10-20 04:03:18	Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	217	88¢	$191	0x6d26df…
10-20 04:02:50	Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	145	87¢	$126	0xca1dd8…
10-19 16:37:18	Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xbb7ef1…
10-19 16:10:09	Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x01a546…
10-19 14:55:00	Will María Fernanda Espinosa be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xa5a902…
10-19 14:50:08	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	60	58¢	$35	0x9d5bad…
10-19 14:26:44	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	111	59¢	$65	0x1f804c…
10-19 14:17:15	Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x0c2622…
10-19 13:41:23	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0xed0f0a…
10-19 13:17:54	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	180	59¢	$106	0xd20d36…
10-19 13:17:54	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	60	59¢	$35	0x724a2c…
10-19 12:49:53	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$2	0xf210ae…
10-19 09:36:33	Will María Fernanda Espinosa be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	130	90¢	$117	0x82dd49…
10-19 08:20:08	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xfed670…
10-19 08:20:08	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	42	37¢	$15	0xfba8f0…
10-19 08:20:08	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x789fb6…
10-19 07:58:41	Will María Fernanda Espinosa be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x3ed1f8…
10-19 07:58:36	Will María Fernanda Espinosa be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	94	90¢	$84	0x225f3a…
10-15 14:55:28	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	18	63¢	$11	0xa5e90c…
10-15 14:55:28	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	42	63¢	$26	0x8896f0…
10-15 08:09:38	Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0x4dde16…
10-15 07:49:37	Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	47	83¢	$39	0xa442a7…
10-15 03:08:11	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0xd85f22…
10-15 03:07:44	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xd79466…
10-15 03:07:44	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x9927b6…
10-14 14:31:52	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	60	64¢	$38	0x1692d9…
10-14 13:59:36	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x59dfe7…
10-14 12:46:02	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	60	64¢	$38	0x91c28d…
10-14 12:44:27	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	60	64¢	$38	0x939336…
10-14 07:30:35	Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	2	74¢	$1	0x8e848c…
10-14 07:30:35	Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0x02097c…
10-14 05:53:32	Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?	No	BUY	50	73¢	$37	0xf7b188…
10-14 05:53:32	Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xadc9ef…
10-13 21:41:40	Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xe9d035…
10-13 11:26:02	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0xd8b321…
10-13 11:20:17	Will Wang Chung-ming win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0xb0bd76…
10-13 06:00:18	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0x8d40cd…
10-13 02:58:30	Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	31	73¢	$23	0xa6083c…
10-13 02:57:53	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0xea6749…
10-13 02:57:53	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xb181d0…
10-13 02:57:53	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	36	53¢	$19	0x6253fb…
10-13 02:12:54	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xaa338c…
10-13 01:25:57	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x808fbe…
10-13 01:04:32	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	70¢	$40	0xae2f40…
10-13 00:34:12	Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?	No	BUY	18	74¢	$13	0x88848f…
10-13 00:33:33	Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?	No	BUY	28	74¢	$21	0x4c414d…
10-12 21:35:51	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xf3a792…
10-12 21:32:08	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x942e9a…
10-12 20:57:18	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0xe1a893…
10-12 20:57:18	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	70¢	$15	0x6f2f78…
10-12 17:47:03	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	BUY	33	82¢	$27	0x31b5d1…
10-12 17:26:50	Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x01ec08…
10-12 14:25:26	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x789803…
10-12 13:59:33	Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0xf74dc3…
10-12 13:36:36	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	29	82¢	$24	0x29ed3b…
10-12 12:28:15	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x0532a4…
10-12 10:57:06	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	BUY	27	82¢	$22	0xa13abc…
10-12 10:04:28	Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	29	25¢	$7	0x509290…
10-12 09:57:55	Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0x28514a…
10-12 09:37:05	Will Wang Chung-ming win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	90	77¢	$69	0xf7c594…
10-12 09:37:05	Will Wang Chung-ming win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0x12bb34…
10-12 08:19:03	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xb9bd94…
10-12 03:10:24	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	No	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0x8a3899…
10-12 03:08:56	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0xf1c750…
10-12 03:05:59	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x1a0f21…
10-12 02:48:11	Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xe338f7…
10-08 23:37:50	Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	287	15¢	$43	0xbce257…
10-08 15:41:11	Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	536	2¢	$13	0x413847…
10-08 13:59:47	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	60	74¢	$44	0xfcf7f3…
10-08 13:34:51	Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x01c969…
10-08 12:52:15	Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xf089ff…
10-08 12:07:05	Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	350	2¢	$9	0x1a7f9e…
10-08 11:56:09	Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	1¢	$1	0x125cee…
10-08 11:44:15	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	93	55¢	$51	0xff4339…
10-08 08:22:44	Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	1¢	$1	0xe2c79e…