Careless-Narrative — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.3%

Resolved

Trades

671

lifetime

Volume

$1.37K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 07-20 10:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

55% — —

Politics

40% 100% +$8

Sports

4% 50% +$1

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	9	$142	142	142	+0	open	—	02-28 06:36
bun dor hei 2026 02 01 dor	3	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	02-01 19:07
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	1	$32	73	0	+73	open	—	02-22 16:13
amzn quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 05 2026 1pt95	6	$26	70	70	+0	open	—	02-05 21:14
will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	2	$21	17	17	+0	open	—	02-28 07:01
iran strike on us military by february 28	5	$21	32	32	+0	open	—	02-28 07:06
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	3	$20	50	45	+5	open	—	02-04 19:15
ere psv fey 2026 02 01 psv	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	02-01 17:23
ere her sit 2026 02 01 her	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	02-01 17:23
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	3	$18	20	20	+0	open	—	02-17 22:19
epl mun ful 2026 02 01 mun	2	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	02-01 17:22
bun stu fre 2026 02 01 stu	2	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	02-01 17:23
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	2	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	02-02 17:10
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	2	$15	14	14	+0	open	—	03-03 18:31
fl1 lyo lil 2026 02 01 lyo	2	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	02-01 17:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$14	33	33	+0	open	—	04-21 04:54
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	3	$14	224	0	+224	open	—	02-11 07:56
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	3	$13	16	16	+0	open	—	02-17 22:26
spx opens up or down on february 9 2026	6	$12	13	13	+0	open	—	02-09 07:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	03-01 10:38
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$11	10	10	+0	open	—	03-03 18:48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	3	$11	82	0	+82	open	—	06-11 21:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	05-30 19:41
bun fre wer 2026 02 07 fre	2	$11	10	10	+0	open	—	02-03 16:15
googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 04 2026 2pt64	7	$10	174	124	+50	open	—	02-03 16:14
cl up or down on march 2 2026	4	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	03-01 15:33
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	3	$10	171	0	+171	open	—	02-22 16:12
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	02-01 13:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$9	17	4	+13	Yes	+$8	02-28 20:42
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$9	173	0	+173	open	—	04-19 22:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 10:17:04	Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x4226ba…
07-20 10:16:34	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x21c271…
07-20 10:16:21	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd3d9bf…
07-20 10:13:37	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0x5db04c…
07-20 10:13:24	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x02143a…
07-20 10:12:46	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xc00e2a…
06-11 21:12:12	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0xe6cbe1…
06-11 13:02:39	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0xb0ec88…
06-11 13:02:30	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	91	2¢	$2	0xe03006…
06-11 13:00:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	4	89¢	$3	0x3a6b64…
06-09 18:41:57	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	118	2¢	$2	0x3a7cea…
06-08 12:48:34	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	56	13¢	$7	0xbc6d79…
06-08 12:47:54	Epstein storage units raided in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x09496d…
06-08 12:47:27	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x2b82fb…
06-08 12:47:16	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x24bcf0…
05-30 19:47:49	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0xfed84c…
05-30 19:47:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc54fa1…
05-30 19:46:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xb55433…
05-30 19:43:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xfd1a03…
05-30 19:43:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x3995f7…
05-30 19:41:40	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0xb13ccb…
05-30 19:41:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xf17cc6…
05-29 07:05:14	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	28¢	$3	0x7647fc…
05-28 08:40:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9b87a4…
05-16 22:20:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x07eba8…
05-14 06:44:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8d8927…
05-14 06:43:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x63e7e2…
05-14 06:40:13	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x9254bc…
04-21 11:00:10	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xa2fd77…
04-21 11:00:02	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xc5fcf6…
04-21 10:59:56	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x31398b…
04-21 10:22:44	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xb07fd6…
04-21 10:20:56	Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x9ee408…
04-21 04:57:42	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x186e55…
04-21 04:54:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	33	28¢	$9	0x0bba8f…
04-21 04:35:06	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xef7709…
04-21 04:33:16	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xdf1f83…
04-21 04:31:52	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x5b5106…
04-21 04:31:44	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x7b44e1…
04-21 04:31:22	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x4a387e…
04-21 04:29:28	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x8105c9…
04-19 22:58:48	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xfcf7b7…
04-19 22:58:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xe4e4c4…
04-19 22:54:36	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	8	34¢	$3	0x2b12ca…
04-19 22:53:40	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xd0915d…
04-17 20:22:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x087e2b…
04-14 18:15:14	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xc1fa95…
04-02 03:42:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	33	14¢	$5	0x7fb142…
04-02 03:41:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	56	4¢	$2	0xdd3fb1…
03-23 07:45:29	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xf0e57c…
03-23 07:44:53	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xc3b27d…
03-20 17:02:03	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0xc70203…
03-20 17:01:39	houthi military action against saudi arabia by march 31	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x27b3a0…
03-20 16:58:57	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xaa2a2d…
03-20 16:58:21	sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x694bb7…
03-20 16:57:03	will trump cut off trade with spain	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8e4124…
03-17 15:57:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x67ef40…
03-17 15:42:39	tulsi gabbard out by march 31	Yes	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xb0dc3f…
03-15 12:54:09	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	63	1¢	$1	0xc0fb83…
03-09 07:08:39	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x12bb7e…
03-09 07:08:03	will iran claim responsibility for oslo embassy attack	Yes	SELL	46	4¢	$2	0xd91b61…
03-09 06:51:13	will iran claim responsibility for oslo embassy attack	Yes	BUY	46	4¢	$2	0xdfbcea…
03-09 06:50:21	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x20c53a…
03-09 06:43:01	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x872e08…
03-09 00:43:25	will the percentage change in the sp 500 in q1 2026 be between 0 and 2	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x07f87e…
03-09 00:40:15	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x4c7a35…
03-09 00:39:53	nba ind por 2026 03 08	Trail Blazers	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x483789…
03-09 00:39:47	nba chi sac 2026 03 08	Bulls	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf1caf1…
03-09 00:39:13	nhl det nj 2026 03 08	Red Wings	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xaef444…
03-09 00:39:03	nba orl mil 2026 03 08	Magic	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xeb0bbe…
03-09 00:38:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x0a5053…
03-09 00:38:05	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xfeb45e…
03-09 00:37:17	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xd669bb…
03-08 19:17:17	por ben por 2026 03 08 por	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x5b5a32…
03-08 19:15:07	will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x4d1e3c…
03-08 18:59:45	nba bos cle 2026 03 08	Celtics	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x84f1dc…
03-08 18:53:31	lal get bet 2026 03 07 get	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xdb57ff…
03-08 07:25:25	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0x5ba855…
03-08 00:58:45	nba bkn det 2026 03 07	Pistons	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbcb97c…
03-07 19:37:57	spl kho qad 2026 03 05 qad	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x3b8678…
03-07 18:35:31	sea ata udi 2026 03 07 udi	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x4f1b8d…
03-07 09:59:53	U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x82952c…
03-07 09:58:03	will epstein data set 13 be released by march 31	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xda0602…
03-07 07:04:51	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x713f49…
03-07 06:21:19	Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xcd6637…
03-07 06:15:01	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x08106a…
03-07 06:13:55	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x64479a…
03-06 22:21:47	bun koe dor 2026 03 07 dor	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc731fd…
03-06 22:19:53	bun hei hof 2026 03 07 hof	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xb1aab4…
03-06 22:13:23	will us or israel strike iran on march 7 2026	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7d38b3…
03-06 22:12:57	bl2 s04 bie 2026 03 06 s04	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xdc8e23…
03-06 16:48:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0xafdb03…
03-06 16:47:11	atp berrett zverev 2026 03 06	Alexander Zverev	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x94c258…
03-06 09:37:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x8401f1…
03-06 09:36:43	will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x5c1dd7…
03-06 09:34:47	will khamenei tweet again by march 7 216	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x74f748…
03-06 09:34:19	chi ron xin 2026 03 06 ron	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xe8d54c…
03-06 09:34:05	spl ahl ith 2026 03 06 ahl	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xde3c79…
03-06 09:33:51	bl2 s04 bie 2026 03 06 s04	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe557f5…
03-06 09:32:15	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x96f387…