Realized P&L
+$55
Unrealized P&L
-$13
Hit rate
73.5%
Resolved
43
Trades
79
lifetime
Volume
$960
lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$145
8 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 10-13 14:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 26 days
Categories
Politics
49% 43% -$35
Other
38% 59% +$74
Sports
13% 58% +$15
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
3 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? No +53 $50 80¢ $42 -$8 10-13 14:16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +34 $27 82¢ $28 +$0 10-13 14:02
Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? No +23 $20 86¢ $20 +$0 08-29 13:42
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +20 $18 97¢ $19 +$1 06-11 22:22
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes +26 $20 71¢ $19 -$1 10-13 14:10
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No +12 $10 91¢ $11 +$1 08-29 13:35
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -20 -$5 18¢ $-4 +$1 06-11 22:26
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? Yes +33 $10 8¢ $3 -$7 09-02 07:55