Realized P&L
-$394
Unrealized P&L
+$198
Hit rate
70.5%
Resolved
113
Trades
215
lifetime
Volume
$23.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$109
Open exposure
$5.38K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 10-28 00:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 44 days
Categories
Other
57% 65% -$191
Sports
16% 55% -$859
Politics
15% 83% +$597
Tech
9% 75% +$27
Crypto
3% 100% +$33
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
19 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +822 $700 96¢ $794 +$94 09-02 21:53
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No +831 $800 95¢ $788 -$12 10-02 14:38
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? No +343 $300 93¢ $319 +$19 07-21 22:56
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +314 $300 97¢ $305 +$5 08-24 21:42
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +230 $200 97¢ $222 +$22 06-06 12:59
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +225 $200 95¢ $213 +$13 05-02 09:15
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No +204 $200 99¢ $201 +$1 08-14 22:31
Databricks IPO before 2027? No +179 $150 98¢ $175 +$25 06-27 00:32
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +343 $100 42¢ $143 +$43 07-07 23:42
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +755 $200 16¢ $121 -$79 05-02 09:16
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? No +126 $120 96¢ $120 +$0 08-14 22:27
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? No -118 -$115 97¢ $-114 +$1 06-27 00:19
Discord IPO before 2027? No +120 $100 94¢ $113 +$13 09-07 23:50
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No +114 $100 95¢ $109 +$9 09-23 22:13
Ramp IPO before 2027? No +111 $100 98¢ $108 +$8 06-27 00:34
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? No +111 $100 97¢ $107 +$7 06-27 00:36
Ledger IPO before 2027? No +110 $100 96¢ $106 +$6 06-19 06:35
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +108 $100 97¢ $104 +$4 09-19 14:12
Vanta IPO before 2027? No +109 $100 95¢ $104 +$4 08-14 22:19
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? No +106 $100 97¢ $103 +$3 08-14 22:26
Rippling IPO before 2027? No +111 $100 93¢ $103 +$3 08-14 22:18
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No +106 $100 96¢ $103 +$3 06-04 11:57
Human moon landing in 2026? No +103 $100 99¢ $102 +$2 06-06 12:59
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? No +107 $100 94¢ $102 +$2 09-22 02:03
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? No +105 $100 96¢ $101 +$1 09-07 23:49
Trump out as President before 2027? No +105 $100 96¢ $101 +$1 10-21 21:34
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No +106 $100 95¢ $101 +$1 09-23 22:13
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +257 $100 39¢ $101 +$1 05-02 09:17
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes +106 $100 94¢ $100 +$0 09-11 22:44
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? No +104 $100 94¢ $97 -$3 08-14 22:30