Clear-Cut-Vibration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.07K

Unrealized P&L

-$325

Hit rate

80.0%

Resolved

Trades

338

lifetime

Volume

$95.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$281

Open exposure

$1.19K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 10-29 19:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Other

56% 76% -$300

Politics

36% 79% -$3,379

Sports

8% 60% +$594

Crypto

0% 100% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+718	$668	94¢	$679	+$11	10-29 19:57
US recession by end of 2026?	No	-409	-$45	94¢	$-386	-$341	09-28 16:24
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-124	-$127	98¢	$-121	+$6	07-03 05:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	10	$5.0K	2,649	2,649	+0	No	+$114	05-26 07:29
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$5.0K	2,540	2,540	+0	No	+$6	02-26 15:43
US recession by end of 2026?	6	$3.3K	1,741	2,150	-409	open	—	09-28 16:24
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	5	$2.8K	1,475	1,475	+0	No	+$112	02-28 04:42
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	12	$2.8K	1,497	1,374	+123	No	+$55	02-27 15:05
will the united states win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	5	$2.6K	1,444	1,444	+0	No	+$319	02-17 15:46
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	2	$2.5K	1,300	1,300	+0	No	+$64	02-26 04:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$2.4K	2,139	2,139	+0	No	-$178	09-16 15:47
will hamas agree to disarm by march 31 966	11	$2.4K	1,331	1,210	+121	No	+$10	03-10 07:00
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$2.2K	2,707	0	+2,707	Yes	-$2,239	02-28 04:52
trump out as president by march 31	6	$2.2K	1,120	1,120	+0	No	+$18	03-09 13:10
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$2.2K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	-$361	03-01 00:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$2.1K	1,390	1,390	+0	Yes	-$153	06-01 09:12
Trump out as President by June 30?	3	$2.0K	1,040	1,040	+0	No	+$25	05-06 20:11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$2.0K	1,054	1,054	+0	No	+$89	04-28 14:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$5	06-04 14:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	3	$1.7K	903	903	+0	No	+$63	08-31 20:05
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	2	$1.7K	886	886	+0	No	+$51	08-14 19:03
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$1.6K	847	847	+0	No	+$40	03-24 04:17
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$1.5K	800	800	+0	No	+$44	03-15 05:43
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	2	$1.4K	755	755	+0	Under	+$83	06-16 00:29
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	2	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$42	06-14 06:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	2	$1.3K	704	701	+3	No	+$69	04-30 20:04
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	2	$1.3K	680	680	+0	No	+$9	04-12 21:34
fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	2	$1.3K	675	675	+0	Under	+$47	06-15 21:01
fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 total 4pt5	3	$1.3K	680	680	+0	Under	+$57	06-14 21:57
will hamas agree to disarm by february 28	5	$1.3K	1,433	0	+1,433	No	+$140	02-28 04:57
fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 total 5pt5	3	$1.2K	622	622	+0	Under	+$43	06-16 03:01
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$1.2K	2,480	2,480	+0	No	+$36	07-16 02:57
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	7	$1.2K	560	683	-124	open	—	07-03 05:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 19:57:39	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	651	93¢	$605	0x13e4d2…
10-16 02:09:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	162	71¢	$115	0xf2c23d…
10-16 01:54:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	439	71¢	$312	0xf17f20…
10-16 01:53:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	514	84¢	$432	0xf11420…
10-16 01:52:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x4a3e77…
10-01 20:25:24	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	67	93¢	$62	0x667b70…
09-28 22:26:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	26	86¢	$22	0x5df21b…
09-28 17:47:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?	No	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0x7c7db7…
09-28 16:24:20	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	471	92¢	$433	0xe86307…
09-28 16:16:54	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?	No	SELL	476	91¢	$435	0x6ddea3…
09-16 15:50:50	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September?	No	BUY	55	82¢	$45	0x8584ad…
09-16 15:50:21	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x766e64…
09-16 15:47:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	526	11¢	$58	0xe233fa…
09-09 09:41:09	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	771	93¢	$717	0x09671d…
09-09 09:36:10	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x8418ef…
09-04 12:23:43	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x957da4…
09-04 00:30:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	526	57¢	$300	0x944199…
08-31 20:05:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	No	SELL	903	100¢	$902	0xb92728…
08-26 23:42:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,613	66¢	$1,065	0x3ccdd0…
08-14 20:36:15	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	837	93¢	$778	0x433a24…
08-14 20:05:54	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	66	92¢	$61	0xcdc87d…
08-14 19:36:27	wti closes above 83 on august 14 2026	Yes	SELL	500	3¢	$15	0x1877c5…
08-14 19:35:22	wti closes above 83 on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$48	0x6f4859…
08-14 19:03:15	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	886	99¢	$876	0x8863bf…
08-12 14:08:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	488	82¢	$400	0xa6be15…
08-12 04:06:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,613	62¢	$1,000	0xcc73d8…
07-29 19:30:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	420	100¢	$420	0x93d0dd…
07-20 19:18:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	886	93¢	$825	0xad9df8…
07-20 14:01:45	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0xfbc49b…
07-16 02:57:23	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	480	58¢	$278	0x252068…
07-13 15:56:17	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	480	83¢	$400	0xf7dc0f…
07-13 15:40:47	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,000	17¢	$334	0x5fd349…
07-13 15:40:25	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,000	21¢	$418	0xa9882f…
07-13 15:40:13	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,000	22¢	$430	0xdb71b4…
07-13 15:39:44	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,000	39¢	$776	0x12cc06…
07-03 05:12:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	420	91¢	$382	0xa88d31…
07-03 05:07:56	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	396	96¢	$381	0x483ab9…
06-16 21:27:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	396	93¢	$369	0x036ad1…
06-16 21:20:52	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	337	93¢	$315	0xcab4bd…
06-16 21:18:41	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x001a9a…
06-16 20:51:02	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	722	97¢	$700	0x7bc25f…
06-16 20:10:35	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	Yes	SELL	151	84¢	$127	0xa5497d…
06-16 03:01:40	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 total 5pt5	Under	SELL	622	100¢	$621	0x49c3eb…
06-16 02:50:51	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	324	93¢	$301	0x8afb13…
06-16 02:50:03	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	298	93¢	$277	0x5f88b2…
06-16 02:44:01	Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	No	SELL	400	47¢	$187	0x20d743…
06-16 02:42:54	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 total 4pt5	Under	SELL	337	44¢	$147	0x2e1d0d…
06-16 02:41:03	Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	No	BUY	400	50¢	$200	0x9ae1f3…
06-16 02:20:58	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	337	89¢	$300	0xd48664…
06-16 00:29:45	Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	755	100¢	$755	0x807870…
06-15 23:44:45	Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	755	89¢	$672	0x81140f…
06-15 21:01:15	Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	675	100¢	$674	0x773a6a…
06-15 20:44:57	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	675	93¢	$628	0x61097d…
06-15 20:40:00	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 team total home 2pt5	Under	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0xc3dbde…
06-15 20:15:09	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 team total home 2pt5	Under	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xdad22b…
06-15 20:03:25	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	Yes	BUY	75	51¢	$38	0x7675dd…
06-15 20:01:27	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	Yes	BUY	25	51¢	$13	0x1d3d3e…
06-15 20:01:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x9f9724…
06-15 20:00:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?	Yes	BUY	31	51¢	$16	0x73659e…
06-14 21:57:27	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 total 4pt5	Under	SELL	680	100¢	$679	0xe93615…
06-14 21:56:43	Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	28	99¢	$27	0x206764…
06-14 21:51:06	Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	28	86¢	$24	0x694ccd…
06-14 21:50:43	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	SELL	361	7¢	$25	0xe9cf64…
06-14 21:44:19	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	339	95¢	$322	0x60ac1c…
06-14 21:43:36	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	361	83¢	$300	0x83d78c…
06-14 21:36:40	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	341	88¢	$300	0x4852cf…
06-14 06:07:00	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	33	87¢	$29	0x87148c…
06-14 06:02:49	Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	No	SELL	700	100¢	$699	0x4d4929…
06-14 06:02:33	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	190	100¢	$190	0xcee32e…
06-14 06:02:22	Spread: Australia (-1.5)	Australia	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xd51eeb…
06-14 05:40:30	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	Australia	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x821c06…
06-14 05:40:30	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	Australia	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x41d070…
06-14 05:39:18	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	171	88¢	$151	0x66c767…
06-14 05:38:49	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	19	88¢	$16	0xf9cf2d…
06-14 05:36:21	Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	No	BUY	700	94¢	$657	0x40160c…
06-14 05:05:49	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x91096c…
06-14 02:47:33	fifwc hai sco 2026 06 13 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	527	93¢	$490	0x23f338…
06-14 02:20:54	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	300	77¢	$231	0x0698e6…
06-14 00:40:00	Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x71daf3…
06-14 00:39:22	Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	220	100¢	$220	0xea88e3…
06-13 23:52:45	Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	220	73¢	$161	0xf54122…
06-13 23:52:25	US recession by end of 2026?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x909612…
06-13 23:34:34	Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Morocco	BUY	49	94¢	$47	0x721865…
06-13 23:33:31	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 spread home 1pt5	Morocco	BUY	426	94¢	$400	0x8ea317…
06-13 23:31:57	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	219	91¢	$199	0xdaf91f…
06-13 23:31:03	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	21	91¢	$19	0x42c5a0…
06-13 23:27:00	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xed29d3…
06-13 23:26:03	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xba4671…
06-13 23:22:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	207	98¢	$202	0xf1bfb9…
06-13 22:34:33	Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Morocco	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x253f1b…
06-13 20:57:16	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	Qatar	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x52b54c…
06-13 20:54:13	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	515	97¢	$500	0x47883f…
06-13 20:53:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	207	98¢	$203	0x503cea…
06-13 20:52:00	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	324	99¢	$322	0x885eba…
06-05 21:41:24	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	966	4¢	$39	0x47e84e…
06-05 21:40:51	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xe0c0a7…
06-05 21:38:52	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$54	0x7e33d7…
06-05 21:38:42	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	8¢	$83	0x8d9bfa…
06-05 21:38:30	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	9¢	$88	0xc2cb40…
06-05 21:38:19	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$97	0xc32d2e…