Electric-Guarantee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$48

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

28.1%

Resolved

Trades

213

lifetime

Volume

$16.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 08-11 18:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

68% 0% $-18

Politics

29% 100% +$66

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	3	$2.1K	1,169	1,169	+0	open	—	07-04 03:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$1.4K	1,071	1,071	+0	open	—	07-04 03:49
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	4	$1.3K	745	745	+0	open	—	07-08 12:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$1.3K	259	1,106	-848	open	—	06-24 18:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	8	$925	1,497	0	+1,497	open	—	04-18 14:15
jd vance out as vp by december 31	5	$550	5,714	0	+5,714	open	—	07-05 22:55
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$503	283	283	+0	open	—	04-18 08:35
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	3	$500	212	355	-143	open	—	06-18 22:48
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	2	$460	270	270	+0	open	—	06-26 21:11
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	6	$430	2,328	0	+2,328	open	—	08-11 18:46
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	6	$400	491	0	+491	open	—	08-05 19:10
world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	24	$351	8,454	0	+8,454	open	—	07-06 21:18
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	2	$332	68	310	-242	open	—	08-11 18:44
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	3	$277	168	168	+0	open	—	04-12 20:19
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	3	$254	143	143	+0	open	—	06-14 13:41
will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	2	$251	155	155	+0	open	—	06-17 22:05
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	4	$230	248	0	+248	open	—	04-07 23:20
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	2	$215	118	118	+0	open	—	04-10 17:19
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	1	$210	0	251	-251	open	—	06-28 13:10
will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	1	$200	290	0	+290	open	—	07-22 13:54
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	6	$200	330	0	+330	open	—	07-22 09:17
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	1	$146	0	155	-155	open	—	06-16 00:20
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	4	$144	256	0	+256	open	—	04-10 17:32
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	3	$135	78	78	+0	open	—	04-16 13:06
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	5	$130	1,143	0	+1,143	open	—	07-22 13:50
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	1	$130	0	141	-141	open	—	07-24 12:17
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	2	$127	96	96	+0	open	—	04-18 14:14
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$126	77	77	+0	open	—	04-12 20:19
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$126	165	0	+165	open	—	04-18 12:26
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	2	$120	240	0	+240	open	—	07-22 11:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 18:46:04	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0x992509…
08-11 18:44:39	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	310	91¢	$282	0x790b4f…
08-11 18:41:55	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	35	92¢	$32	0x7c34f9…
08-11 18:38:48	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	16¢	$10	0x277006…
08-05 19:10:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x07692c…
07-24 12:19:09	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0xe5f160…
07-24 12:17:43	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	141	92¢	$130	0x77aa2d…
07-24 12:08:25	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000	Yes	BUY	57	30¢	$17	0xe918fa…
07-24 12:06:30	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x472fbf…
07-24 12:05:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0x93ea15…
07-22 13:54:40	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	290	69¢	$200	0xf6a1af…
07-22 13:53:39	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x9cb5ea…
07-22 13:52:03	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x7c3c9d…
07-22 13:50:42	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	333	9¢	$30	0xd7ac76…
07-22 11:56:27	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	197	51¢	$100	0xf8ede4…
07-22 09:17:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0xb947dd…
07-22 09:17:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xa878aa…
07-22 08:40:52	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x72da1d…
07-22 08:39:57	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x3c1529…
07-22 08:36:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xcbcf44…
07-12 22:50:37	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	85	47¢	$40	0x1b4d41…
07-12 22:48:22	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31	Yes	BUY	104	29¢	$30	0x862973…
07-12 06:29:28	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0xd444d8…
07-12 06:14:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0xb493f2…
07-12 06:14:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x58f838…
07-11 18:35:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x9eb91c…
07-11 18:32:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x8eba72…
07-08 12:30:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	745	99¢	$738	0x8e3ba4…
07-06 21:18:02	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	588	3¢	$20	0x2d640a…
07-06 21:17:52	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	588	3¢	$20	0xd0cd3e…
07-06 20:10:52	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	296	3¢	$10	0x6d7fdf…
07-06 19:23:14	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	291	3¢	$10	0x831018…
07-06 16:36:01	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	328	6¢	$21	0xc48fd6…
07-06 16:13:28	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	161	6¢	$10	0x465fbc…
07-06 15:57:11	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	172	6¢	$10	0x649a0e…
07-06 15:56:56	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	172	6¢	$10	0xec918c…
07-06 15:22:52	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	149	7¢	$10	0x8b3ae2…
07-06 14:59:07	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	192	5¢	$10	0x53d1fb…
07-06 14:55:52	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	198	5¢	$10	0x015dff…
07-06 13:55:44	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	141	7¢	$10	0x24613d…
07-06 12:27:19	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	139	7¢	$10	0x25d3fe…
07-06 10:10:10	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	2,624	4¢	$100	0x153cbd…
07-06 10:09:55	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	286	3¢	$10	0xda2523…
07-06 10:07:38	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	286	3¢	$10	0x921613…
07-06 10:04:07	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	292	3¢	$10	0x295f80…
07-06 06:31:38	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	345	3¢	$10	0xebafcd…
07-06 06:28:52	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x32c791…
07-06 06:22:31	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	345	3¢	$10	0x41d47f…
07-06 06:22:20	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	345	3¢	$10	0x4413bf…
07-06 06:22:13	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	345	3¢	$10	0x673085…
07-05 23:08:46	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xa81d26…
07-05 23:07:19	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0x386e70…
07-05 23:06:28	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xa0095a…
07-05 22:55:28	jd vance out as vp by december 31	Yes	BUY	714	7¢	$50	0xe81a11…
07-05 22:34:14	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0x64ee0f…
07-05 22:31:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0x4c8f60…
07-05 22:27:53	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x819365…
07-05 18:57:29	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0xf30d86…
07-05 06:24:02	ECB rate cut in 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	21¢	$25	0x846e2b…
07-04 21:45:17	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x22c61e…
07-04 21:44:41	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x8eea5c…
07-04 21:44:11	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x751181…
07-04 18:02:08	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0x7b40a3…
07-04 17:59:37	russia coup attempt in 2026	Yes	BUY	458	10¢	$46	0x89078f…
07-04 17:58:35	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	417	12¢	$50	0xa27dd5…
07-04 17:54:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	89	45¢	$40	0x1bdb94…
07-04 17:54:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	62	64¢	$40	0x60ae74…
07-04 04:09:31	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x15bab7…
07-04 04:07:13	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x7a6d0e…
07-04 04:06:53	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x578d71…
07-04 03:53:35	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x591144…
07-04 03:51:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x3f95a2…
07-04 03:50:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x6c3fd1…
07-04 03:49:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,071	76¢	$814	0x158590…
07-04 03:48:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	1,169	100¢	$1,164	0xc6762c…
06-29 16:05:10	russia coup attempt in 2026	Yes	BUY	71	13¢	$9	0x6aa2c2…
06-29 16:03:55	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0x7224dd…
06-28 13:12:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	323	65¢	$210	0x66f9cb…
06-28 13:10:38	US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	No	SELL	251	84¢	$210	0x6834f0…
06-26 21:16:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	559	81¢	$453	0xb07e36…
06-26 21:14:58	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	BUY	138	36¢	$50	0x648bc2…
06-26 21:13:20	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x579b16…
06-26 21:12:35	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	36	97¢	$35	0x914918…
06-26 21:11:04	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	270	96¢	$260	0x563388…
06-26 21:09:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	417	72¢	$300	0xc0d309…
06-26 21:08:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	610	82¢	$500	0xd20f0b…
06-24 18:43:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,106	96¢	$1,059	0xd8de34…
06-23 18:49:26	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	79	46¢	$37	0xc96013…
06-20 14:05:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	195	77¢	$150	0x677a21…
06-20 11:22:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xa0e1e9…
06-20 11:21:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	134	75¢	$100	0x8dace9…
06-18 22:53:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x2aae12…
06-18 22:48:55	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	355	96¢	$342	0x8aa6d0…
06-17 22:31:05	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	72	81¢	$58	0xc9e601…
06-17 22:22:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0xc82e47…
06-17 22:20:02	ECB rate cut in 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xac37b0…
06-17 22:14:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x8f233b…
06-17 22:05:28	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	Yes	SELL	155	96¢	$149	0xef8e5b…
06-16 20:28:53	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	36	86¢	$31	0x4a7c4b…
06-16 00:22:06	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0xb2f4e7…