Realized P&L
-$522
Unrealized P&L
-$250
Hit rate
67.8%
Resolved
2,070
Trades
20,539
lifetime
Volume
$111.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$850
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-22
last 11-09 21:39
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 130 days
Categories
Other
63% 61% -$346
Politics
19% 63% -$51
Crypto
8% 60% -$22
Tech
5% 68% -$94
Sports
5% 56% -$10
Pop-Culture
0% 50% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 442 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Raphinha win the 2027 Ballon d'Or? No +100 $86 86¢ $86 +$1 11-04 18:33
Will the Republicans win Georgia in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +100 $74 72¢ $72 -$3 11-07 18:37
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? No +80 $62 80¢ $64 +$2 11-09 21:39
Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? No +100 $73 62¢ $62 -$11 11-05 19:58
Will the San Jose Sharks make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs? No +81 $59 74¢ $59 +$1 11-09 01:08
Will Besiktas finish top 8 in UEL league phase? No +80 $54 68¢ $54 +$0 11-07 06:59
Will the Democrats win Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +80 $58 64¢ $51 -$7 11-08 03:24
Will the Democrats win Florida in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +50 $40 77¢ $38 -$2 11-07 02:06
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31 Yes +200 $48 16¢ $33 -$15 10-27 23:59
Will Will Anderson Jr. win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? No +50 $36 62¢ $31 -$5 11-03 20:52
Will the Democrats win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +40 $31 74¢ $30 -$2 11-07 02:09
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? No +40 $30 74¢ $29 -$1 11-06 17:35
Will the Detroit Lions win more than 10.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season? U 10.5 +80 $42 36¢ $29 -$12 10-27 20:16
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League? No +40 $21 59¢ $24 +$3 11-09 15:45
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? No +50 $36 48¢ $24 -$12 10-31 01:13
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? No +50 $34 47¢ $23 -$11 11-07 16:48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting? No +26 $22 80¢ $21 -$2 11-09 12:25
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? No +50 $32 37¢ $18 -$14 10-25 16:50
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes +100 $28 18¢ $18 -$11 10-28 09:36
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? No +50 $27 26¢ $13 -$14 10-26 10:24
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? No +50 $21 23¢ $12 -$10 10-29 23:52
Will the New York Giants make the 2027 NFL Playoffs? No +31 $24 36¢ $11 -$13 11-08 20:02
Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027? Yes +50 $30 16¢ $8 -$22 10-26 00:06
Will Ethereum hit $3k by December 31, 2026? Yes +40 $15 16¢ $6 -$9 10-21 15:19
Will the Carolina Panthers have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season? Yes +32 $16 19¢ $6 -$10 11-05 01:11
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? Yes +50 $27 12¢ $6 -$21 10-30 00:44
Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting? Yes +40 $17 15¢ $6 -$11 10-12 09:22
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? Yes +100 $40 6¢ $6 -$34 10-15 03:15
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes +50 $13 10¢ $5 -$8 10-26 12:31
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 96¢ $5 +$2 08-21 14:15