Realized P&L
-$543
Unrealized P&L
-$238
Hit rate
68.1%
Resolved
2,100
Trades
20,564
lifetime
Volume
$112.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$767
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-22
last 11-11 01:38
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 132 days
Categories
Other
63% 61% -$373
Politics
19% 63% -$45
Crypto
8% 61% -$21
Tech
5% 68% -$94
Sports
5% 56% -$10
Pop-Culture
0% 50% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 442 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Raphinha win the 2027 Ballon d'Or? No +96 $82 86¢ $83 +$1 11-10 09:03
Will the Republicans win Georgia in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +100 $74 72¢ $72 -$3 11-07 18:37
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +80 $68 81¢ $65 -$3 11-11 01:38
Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? No +100 $73 62¢ $62 -$11 11-05 19:58
Will Besiktas finish top 8 in UEL league phase? No +80 $54 68¢ $54 +$0 11-07 06:59
Will the Democrats win Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +80 $58 67¢ $54 -$4 11-08 03:24
Will Will Anderson Jr. win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? No +50 $36 62¢ $31 -$5 11-03 20:52
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31 Yes +200 $48 16¢ $31 -$17 10-27 23:59
Will the Democrats win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +40 $31 74¢ $30 -$2 11-07 02:09
Will the Detroit Lions win more than 10.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season? U 10.5 +80 $42 36¢ $29 -$12 10-27 20:16
Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by March 31, 2027? No +40 $31 73¢ $29 -$2 11-10 15:23
Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Durango Congress election? No +40 $31 70¢ $28 -$3 11-10 17:15
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? No +50 $36 50¢ $25 -$11 10-31 01:13
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League? No +40 $21 60¢ $24 +$3 11-09 15:45
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? No +50 $34 41¢ $20 -$14 11-07 16:48
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes +100 $28 19¢ $19 -$10 10-28 09:36
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? No +50 $32 37¢ $18 -$14 10-25 16:50
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? No +50 $27 26¢ $13 -$14 10-26 10:24
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? Yes +50 $27 23¢ $11 -$15 10-30 00:44
Will the New York Giants make the 2027 NFL Playoffs? No +31 $24 34¢ $11 -$14 11-08 20:02
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? Yes +100 $40 8¢ $8 -$32 10-15 03:15
Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027? Yes +50 $30 15¢ $8 -$23 10-26 00:06
Will the Carolina Panthers have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season? Yes +32 $16 22¢ $7 -$8 11-05 01:11
Will Ethereum hit $3k by December 31, 2026? Yes +40 $15 16¢ $6 -$9 10-21 15:19
Will the San Jose Sharks make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs? No +9 $5 72¢ $6 +$1 11-10 06:45
Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting? Yes +40 $17 12¢ $5 -$12 10-12 09:22
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes +50 $13 10¢ $5 -$8 10-26 12:31
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 96¢ $5 +$2 08-21 14:15
Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship? No +5 $4 91¢ $5 +$0 08-15 08:27
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? No +5 $4 91¢ $4 +$0 08-20 19:48