Realized P&L
-$506
Unrealized P&L
-$199
Hit rate
68.0%
Resolved
2,063
Trades
20,520
lifetime
Volume
$111.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$796
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-22
last 11-08 23:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 129 days
Categories
Other
62% 61% -$343
Politics
19% 63% -$51
Crypto
8% 60% -$22
Tech
5% 68% -$80
Sports
5% 56% -$10
Pop-Culture
0% 50% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 442 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Raphinha win the 2027 Ballon d'Or? No +100 $86 86¢ $86 +$1 11-04 18:33
Will the Republicans win Georgia in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +100 $74 70¢ $70 -$4 11-07 18:37
Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? No +100 $73 62¢ $62 -$11 11-05 19:58
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? No +80 $62 78¢ $62 $0 11-08 22:27
Will the Democrats win Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +80 $58 72¢ $58 +$0 11-08 03:24
Will Besiktas finish top 8 in UEL league phase? No +80 $54 68¢ $54 +$0 11-07 06:59
Will the Democrats win Florida in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +50 $40 77¢ $38 -$2 11-07 02:06
Will Will Anderson Jr. win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? No +50 $36 66¢ $33 -$3 11-03 20:52
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? Yes +200 $48 16¢ $33 -$15 10-27 23:59
Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +48 $30 64¢ $31 +$1 11-08 11:31
Will the Democrats win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election? No +40 $31 74¢ $30 -$2 11-07 02:09
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? No +50 $34 56¢ $28 -$6 11-07 16:48
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? No +50 $36 53¢ $26 -$10 10-31 01:13
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? No +40 $30 64¢ $26 -$5 11-06 17:35
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes +100 $28 19¢ $19 -$9 10-28 09:36
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2026 NFC West? No +21 $18 88¢ $18 +$0 11-04 06:01
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? No +50 $32 36¢ $18 -$14 10-25 16:50
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? No +50 $21 28¢ $14 -$7 10-29 23:52
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? No +50 $27 26¢ $13 -$14 10-26 10:24
Will the New York Giants make the 2027 NFL Playoffs? No +31 $24 40¢ $13 -$11 11-08 20:02
Will the Carolina Panthers have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season? Yes +32 $16 34¢ $11 -$5 11-05 01:11
Will Lux (Rosalía) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes +50 $12 19¢ $9 -$3 10-29 09:13
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +40 $8 18¢ $7 -$1 10-29 15:27
Will Ethereum hit $3k by December 31, 2026? Yes +40 $15 16¢ $6 -$9 10-21 15:19
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? Yes +100 $40 6¢ $6 -$34 10-15 03:15
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? Yes +50 $27 10¢ $5 -$22 10-30 00:44
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? Yes +50 $28 10¢ $5 -$23 10-26 15:59
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? Yes -50 -$12 9¢ $-5 +$8 11-07 15:55
Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship? No +5 $4 92¢ $5 +$0 08-15 08:27
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 94¢ $5 +$2 08-21 14:15